NVDA

Nvidia stock now climbs to the high place of above $110, which seemed to stand far back behind, after the stormy volatility phase began on Wall Street with the tariff announcement night on April 2-3. The fear fog slowly clears, so that big tech elephants are trying to come back the same route they ran down before. However, the global chip monster's 28% bounce looks most impressive if we remember the recent bottom just below $87.

Emotionally, the market's journey there and back again took an eternity, but this local low was seen only one week ago. The investing crowd could still argue around the horn about all this stuff, but for me, Nvidia has confirmed its status as the dominant business in its niche and the Wall Street flagship, helped by the news that Trump administration reversed its course, or probably have pursued its long-term vision, on widely discussed and quite possible restrictions for H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chip export to China. Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang attended a dinner in Trump's own Mar-a-Lago residence last week, which was reportedly enough to solve the issue. Especially designed for the China market, H20 is the most advanced AI processor, which is legally available in China under the control of the previous US Democratic White House team. It's clear that Chinese techs succeeded in partially circumventing any kind of regulatory measures, but still, direct supply of H20 in the open is of great importance in terms of delivery volume, as TikTok parent ByteDance, Alibaba Group, Tencent and others have officially placed at least $16 billion in orders for Nvidia’s H20 server chips only in the first three months of 2025. Booming demand for Chinese startup DeepSeek’s low-cost AI models is coming ahead.

At least two lawmakers, John Moolenaar from the Republican camp and Raja Krishnamoorthi from their Democratic rivals, raised their voices for more restrictions on exports of Nvidia’s cutting-edge chips in late January. However, the idea of tightening the screws was probably abandoned under the influence of the latest developments of even more powerful chips that Nvidia will soon have, and which will apparently not be available for sale in China, as well as Nvidia's promise to Trump of new large investments in AI data centers on the US territory.

On April 14, Nvidia confirmed designing and building factories to produce AI supercomputers entirely in the US for the first time, after securing more than one million square feet of manufacturing space to produce and test its Blackwell AI chips in Arizona and build supercomputers in Texas. The start of the production process of Blackwell chips is already made at TSMC’s facilities in Phoenix, while supercomputer plants are being developed in partnership with Foxconn in Houston and Wistron in Dallas. Mass production at both Texas sites is going to be launched within 12 to 15 months.

Thus, Nvidia's business will do well both domestically and abroad. And I now see any possible pullback in NVIDIA's stock price below $100 to double digits, if it happens at all, as the final boarding call for bullish passengers on Nvidia's H20 flight, as I am sure that the whole talk about tariff exceptions for some electronics will certainly include Nvidia's vital interests, so that its popular AI chips will be taxed cheaply or even could be supplied freely after appropriate negotiations.