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23.02.2023
Brent Is Seen to Recover as it Dives to $80

Oil prices have been in a downtrend since March 2022. Brent crude prices have been descending since then and approaching the lows of the descending channel. However, an important support level at $80 has not been broken in the last 2 months, as prices rebounded every time they approach this margin. If look at the RSI with a period of 14 on H4 chart, we may see that Brent crude is clearly oversold. It seems prices are forming a rebound pattern from the $80 per barrel level. Technically, it might be a good entry point for a long position. Considering that there are no reversal signals at the moment, it would be better to wait for the price to enter the range of $78-80 per barrel to receive such a signal. The target price is at $88. If the support of $78 is broken through, then the price is likely to continue down towards $65 per barrel.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

B
Apple's Pros Are Persuasive

Bulls gained the upper hand in a two-day choppy trading battle between Apple pessimists and Apple optimists. Debating opinions about the iPhone-maker's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC 2024) were acting behind the scene. In all honestly, CEO Tim Cook's Apple Intelligence system announcement did not impress me, yet it succeeded in being persuasive for the market's crowd, reaching out to a relative majority of the expert community as well, which was even more important. Thus, I also decided to join the group of Apple stock purchasers for the first time in nearly two years.

Shares of Apple dropped by nearly 2.5% during the first day of the conference (Monday, June 10) and recovered the decline only the next day, which reflected the first foggy response. Well, a 7.25% upward movement on June 11 with a technical breakthrough to fresh all-time highs well above $200 per share, also convinced my mind and my money better than the company's verbal efforts at the WWDC 2024. I am still of the view that a proper stop loss is needed for this trade, being ready to sell out my modest stake in Apple at any level below $195. It sounds quite reasonable if we remember that it was a sharp jump outside a multi-month price range between $170 and $200 that served as a technical driver for a current shift to the bullish mood on Apple.

Apple's partnership with OpenAI's ChatGPT developers to integrate it into Siri voice assistant was not welcomed. As a bright example, Tesla top boss Elon Musk, who was previously a co-founder of OpenAI itself, immediately commented on X (former Twitter) that he would ban using Apple devices at his companies provided that Apple integrates ChatGPT at its operating system (iOs) level, because he considers this initiative as an "unacceptable security violation". He even added in follow up posts that all visitors to his offices would have to check their Apple devices at the door while they could be "kept in a Faraday cage" to block electromagnetic signals. “It’s patently absurd that Apple isn’t smart enough to make their own AI, yet is somehow capable of ensuring that OpenAI will protect your security & privacy!.. Apple has no clue what is actually going on once they hand your data over to OpenAI. They’re selling you down the river,” the billionaire investor declared. As for me, I also feel that not each and every person could be happy from allowing AI features to use all detailed personal information, including knowing all your preferences. It would be O.K. if Apple Intelligence would restrict itself to "delivering more personalized offerings" (according to Tim Cook) by performing simple and useful functions, such as getting flight information from your emails or searching restaurant reservation details that were sent in your text message, or even by expanding this to re-writing your own texts. But who can be well assured the AI would not go far beyond one's expressed permission. Of course, Siri will ask for the user's permission before connecting with ChatGPT, but the detailed set of consequences would be barely revealed at this entrance door to the rabbit's hole. At the same time, most updates for the new iOs do not look as new and perfect but rather look secondary. In the AI sphere, Apple innovations are still lagging behind other giant techs like Microsoft, Amazon and Google.

Anyway, I may throw up, but let me roll the dice! At least, most experts came to conclusions that Apple's AI announcement may reverse a slump in iPhone sales. A typical opinion is that many Apple's loyal fans who do not have the most recent iPhone 15 models would face the need to upgrade for having access to the new AI features. As a matter of fact, this may increase the speed of future iPhone models replacement before the end of the year to bring Apple more revenue growth.

Meanwhile, Apple sceptics are not appeased as well. "We will all get new iPhones at some point in the future, but we believe consumers will hold onto their devices longer to save money given the lack of compelling features," KeyBanc group of analysts commented. Analysts at Bernstein warned that the partnership relations between Apple and OpenAI partnership could become "revenue dilutive initially", as their agreement may include money sharing which may lessen the profitability of the searching process for Apple.

That's what it is made for and what it is sold for. Yet, let me bet for a $225 to $235 range of nearest price targets. An elevated price range looks like a baseline scenario for me, compared to a prolonged rally stage.

4
Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Harmony is Rigged to Dive

Harmony (ONE) has dropped 3.3% to $0.0182, hovering just above its recent low of $0.01730 reached early Tuesday, marking its lowest point since May 1. Throughout June, Harmony has declined by 17.0%, underperforming the broader market where Bitcoin (BTC) has only fallen by 0.7% to $67,000.

The sharp decline in Harmony's price has pushed it below the support level of the uptrend established on October 19, 2023. The token has closed several consecutive days below this support level, signaling that investors are largely ignoring the positive news generated by the project. This suggests a firm establishment of a downside trend.

The next critical downside target for Harmony is at $0.01500. Reaching this level could be significant for the token's price action moving forward.

4
Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
NVidia May Add Up to 25% in the Next 12 Months

NVidia (NVDA) stocks added 142% to $1200 in 2024, a phenomenal rally considering that it may continue further. NVDA stock were split 1:10 this Monday offering existing shareholders 10 shares for 1. The price of NVidia share automatically reduced to $120. A split does make sense as stock prices usually climbed by another 25% after the split event, as more retail investors could afford buying the stock. This is an opportunity for NVDA to rise towards $150 per share.

I am planning to open long trade at current prices at $120-122. I sees the uptrend in NVDA as strong. A stop-loss could be set at $91.

7
CrowdStrike is Going to Break to the Beyond. Important Update

We seemingly used a good chance to hit the bullseye when updating our target price for CrowdStrike in nearest months to $400 only five days ago, as we believed a technical correction to nearly $300 per share had not been backed fundamentally. A detailed article by our group of analysts contained lots of particular numbers, which we do not feel proper to repeat here. Yet, the main conclusion was that shares of CrowdStrike were to be purchased soon by the market's crows at then-very-attractive price levels. And this is exactly what happened already, as prices soared by more than 25% in less than four trading sessions to approach $385 per share in the first regular hours on Monday, June 10.

One latest 10% push higher was made, helped by news that CrowdStrike will join the S&P 500 broad market index in ten days. The decision by S&P Dow Jones Indices committee tracked the stock's profitability, according to a set of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) which are widely used among Wall Street businesses for financial reporting purposes.

The improved fundamentals of the global cybersecurity leader were boosted due to “increased focus on balancing growth and operating efficiency over the past few years,” JPMorgan analysts commented after the announcement, adding that while they viewed the inclusion into the S&P 500 index as a "positive", they also preferred to view this as a "milestone" fact to reflect an "improving quality over the long term, rather than a long-term catalyst".

Thus, we rather stand in solidarity with this claim, which may mean that a proper moment for at least a partial profit taking may be considered in the nearest few days, as the rest of the path from $300 to our $400 goal is negligibly small compared to the big distance already covered. A profit/risk ratio becomes much worse now, when the profit achieved is large, and so the task of protecting profit becomes more vital than the idea of squeezing even more and more money off this successive trade.

The impact of the S&P 500 inclusion decision could be short-lived, even though the strong factors behind the whole CrowdStrike story are still extremely bullish. Moving a stop-loss to a positive territory in terms of ultimate financial result is one of possible adequate responses of a smart investor to any faster-than-expected move.

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