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23.01.2025
Ontology Is Sliding Towards $0.2000

Ontology (ONT) is down 2.3% this week, trading at $0.2176, in line with the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) has declined 2.0% to $101,632. While the new U.S. administration has made some strides toward fairer crypto regulation, Donald Trump has remained silent on the highly anticipated issue of adding Bitcoin to U.S. federal reserves.

Market speculation is rampant, with figures like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggesting Bitcoin could surge to $700,000 per coin if sovereign wealth funds begin accumulating. Other forecasts predict Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end. While such projections could foster optimism, the lack of decisive action or announcements regarding U.S. crypto reserves is weighing heavily on the market.

For Ontology, the situation remains bearish. Having breached the critical support at $0.2500 last week, the token is now approaching the $0.2000 level. A failure to provide clear evidence or statements about U.S. federal crypto reserve plans could see ONT fall even further, breaching the $0.2000 mark and deepening its losses.

09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

16.01.2025
Delta Is Taking Off To Update Its Highs

Delta Air Lines stock rose markedly by low double digits in the first ten days of the new year. The U.S. carrier has served more than 200 million customers in 2024, when it was also recognized by J.D. Power, a leading American data analytics and consumer intelligence company, for being No. 1 in First/Business and Premium Economy Passenger Satisfaction. Travelers became more willing to spend extra money for swanky seats when meeting a high level of service. Delta is just positioning itself as the nation's premium airline. And what's more important, its Christmas quarter's earnings reportedly surpassed average analyst pool projections. Driven by stronger travel demand, smart financial management and capacity discipline, Delta business provided last three-months' profit of $1.85 per share vs $1.28 at the same period one year ago, compared to $1.75 in consensus estimates. On January 10, the airline industry leader put its future profit levels within a range between $0.70 and $1 per share in the current quarter through the end of March, while analyst expectations were focused on $0.77 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. The starting months of each year always perform worse. It is clear that all carriers made losses in the Covid years of 2020-2022, but Delta profits only recovered into a range from $0.25 to $0.45 in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively, but Q1 profit numbers varied from $0.75 to $0.96 even in the three blessed years before the pandemic. Delta added that it is forecasting annual earnings in excess of $7.35 a share, which would be the highest in its 100-year history, based on its planned revenue growth of 7% to 9% in the March quarter from a year ago. The announcement could be compared to an adjusted profit of $6.16 a share in 2024. The company happily breaks through ticket prices' rising effects, almost undisturbed by a reduction in airline seats in the domestic market, which was peculiar for most carriers. Thus, new expectations created a fertile ground for setting new price records, even though price movements on Delta charts look most convincing among its other American rivals.

By the way, Citigroup analysts freshly updated their outlook on Delta Air Lines shares to raise their price target to $80 from the previous $77, vs the actual range around $65 per share where the stock just came after a reasonable market correction from last week's and all-time highs. Citigroup said it has included factors like higher revenue per available seat mile, projections of slightly lower fuel prices, increased taxation, a minor rise in share count, and the incorporation of fourth-quarter 2024 results into their financial model, which has projected Delta's profit at $7.49 per share in 2024 and $8.72 in 2025. Delta shares are Buy-rated at Citi, and we agree with their positive estimates in general, while keeping in mind even better price goals somewhere between $82.5 and $85.

14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
VeChain Is Building an Upside Momentum

VeChain (VET) is rising by 5.6% to $0.02470 this week, outperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which is adding 2.7% to $114,000. BTC climbed to $114,270 on Wednesday after U.S. producer price index data came in lower than expected, giving risky assets a boost. VET has closely tracked the benchmark’s move.

Now, investors are focused on U.S. consumer inflation data due Thursday. If it also surprises to the downside, BTC could extend gains toward the $117,000–$120,000 resistance zone. In that scenario, VET could finally break out of its three-month consolidation range, with upside potential first to $0.03000 and possibly further to $0.04000.

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Oracle Brings More Than Enough

"Oracle shares will make me a little richer than I am now. I've nothing more to tell you. So far, they cost less than $220, not $250 and not $300". That was exactly what I told you in early July. And now the share price of Oracle is at nearly $320 after soaring by more than 32% (!) in the pre-market on Wednesday. I adore Oracle business. I also felt it was very much undervalued. But right now this is one of the most strange and barely unjustified one-off upside moves I have ever seen. So, I am fully satisfied with the current amount of profit and just take it immediately.

I don't even really care about the underlying reason behind such a crazy move, because this jump of such a giant company is too big for any kind of regular trading. I would take profits on any reason for the spike, as there will almost certainly be not only higher prices in the very near future, but also some lower pullback for re-entry after Oracle's price technical consolidation within some higher-than-before but lower-than-now range. Still, I will briefly describe to you what the point is behind this amazing price action, for those who missed it all.

The company's RPO (remaining performance obligations), which is actually an effective measure of booked revenue, surged by stratospheric 360% YoY to as much as $455 billion. The consensus number was $178 billion "only". And Oracle's CEO Safra Catz also projected “several additional multi-billion-dollar” clients to be signed in the nearest "few months". Booked revenue at Oracle's cloud infrastructure division will soon surpass half-a-trillion Dollars, the company emphasized, thanks to its relatively low-cost, artificial intelligence-powered offerings, as it is going to grow 77% to $18 billion during the current fiscal year and then reach $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and ultimately $144 billion over the next four years. Oracle is producing a range of popular AI reasoning models, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and xAI’s Grok, available to its customers, Safra Catz commented. This piece of news effectively offset some fell-short-of-estimates quarterly results, which was high but didn't set another record. Its EPS (earnings per share) were at $1.47 on revenue of $14.93 billion, compared with expert pool estimates of $1.48 on $15.04 billion and $1.70 per share on $15.9 in the previous brilliant quarter.

UBS analysts noted that "the scale of the backlog" with $317 billion of deals added in the previous quarter alone is "so materially above Street estimates and drives such a material upward revision" that Oracle stock "deserves to re-rate materially higher, turning Oracle into perhaps the biggest large-cap growth acceleration story in all of tech". Well, Guggenheim raised Oracle stock price target today to $375, meaning another 17% of potential surplus to $320 at the moment. But that will happen later, of course. Who knows, where the price will be tomorrow or just next week? For me, this bullish jump already gave more than enough. So, I'm happy. I'd rather hold on to the shares of other AI flagships, such as NVIDIA to feed the whole ecosystem of partners to build Oracle’s data centers , including Broadcom, whose work is dependent on graphics processing units' demand and which are still far away from achieving price goals, in my opinion.

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Gonna Take Profit on Fed’s Day

Precious metals help us in making money again. How long are they going to continue filling investors’ pockets? What is a potential for some profit taking? How soon might that happen? Here I express only my humble opinion on this highly encouraging issue.

It’s nearly a week left until the widely expected move lower by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Its Federal Open Market Committee of 19 members (including 12 voting ones), with obvious reluctance, will lower the borrowing costs range conditions in dollars on the FX market from the current 4.25-4.50% to 4.00-4.25%, and possibly even to 3.75-4.25%. The difference in the latter decision could be made by inflation statistics on the consumer price index (CPI), which is scheduled for this Thursday. JPMorgan’s analyst Fabio Bassi noted on Monday that “the bar for a 50bp Fed cut remains high”, mainly due to last Friday’s job data weakness, but the nearest step is likely “to be limited to a quarter-point reduction”, while Fed’s chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole late August “warrants 25bp easing at the September meeting, an insurance rate cut driven by softness in payrolls while inflation is still above target”. Slowing US jobs curve “virtually” rules out keeping rates on hold, at the same time, but “does not justify a deeper cut”. Well, I have carefully scrolled through many of such types of expert comments, and it seems that this point of view is the most typical currently within the global banking system.

However, the traders’ rule of "buying expectations and selling facts" has not been cancelled, it has been working for years. Therefore, a small rate cut will most likely provoke a moderate outflow of money from risk-insurance assets, such as Gold or Silver, and may even immediately follow the decision. Gold futures were running into the then wall of about $3,500 per troy ounce at the beginning of summer, now they have covered a distance of more than $150 in a short period of time to levels above $3,650, and may have the capacity for a sharp breakthrough to $3,750, I say - but this is if rates are suddenly lowered by 50 basis points. And even then, at the slightest approach to $3,750, I would take profit from most of my buys in Gold, since the next rate decision at the very end of October will probably be unchanged or only 25 basis points. Dovish expectations will be fulfilled in September to the maximum, and there will be nothing more to expect, two 50 bp in a row only happens during a severe recession, and the Fed will definitely not be eager to sound the alarm. So, there are few reasons to go on a march to $4,000, frankly speaking.

I wrote back in the spring that Gold was still looking too expensive well above $3,500. And then I was labelled as a temporary Gold sceptics, but at that time it was absolutely true, as Gold prices did not go higher when the Fed was holding a pause till late August. The Wall St flagships gave me much more money since April to July, and later too. Now Gold will have a new and generally higher range, that's all. In case of an ideal decision for the markets of 50 bp on the eve of September 17, I will leave buy positions in XAUUSD open until the final decision of the committee is announced. But I do not expect too much. If at 50 bp there will be the first and powerful jerk upwards (but probably the neatly last one climb like that for the nearest weeks). Therefore, already on the second wave of the rise I plan to take my profits in this scenario and proudly leave, taking off my hat and saying bye-bye to Gold for a while. If 25 bp, i.e. a small step, then a moderate weakening of risk-hedging assets is almost guaranteed, and in this case I will place a delayed order in advance closing my positions slightly below the market price at that time, and I will place this order just before the decision. Because then even some stronger dollar positioning is possible in a couple of days, on taking forex profits ad well, and a correction in Gold to the area below $3,600 may land. So, the $3,500 level seems to be the lower limit of the new normal, that is, a blurred new technical support, and a descent in its direction after a moderately soft Fed still cannot be ruled out. It would be such a pity to miss out on honestly earned money. Taking profit, it would be wiser to hope for a new race on top to buy probably at some $3,550 area later.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Monero Is Charging for the Rally

Monero (XMR) is adding 0.9% to $273.00 this week, slightly underperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which gained 1.9% to $112,934. In August, Monero slipped below the $275.00 support and retraced towards $225.00 before recovering. At present, prices are repeatedly testing the $275.00 resistance but have yet to break through. Importantly, each pullback is forming higher lows, signalling underlying strength and mounting upward pressure.

A similar pattern is visible in BTC, which also appears to be coiling for a rally. If XMR succeeds in breaking above the $275.00 resistance, the next target lies around $325.00. Elevated demand for the token further strengthens the case for a sustained upside move.

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