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15.09.2022
Safe Haven Assets for Long-Term Investments: Broadcom

Broadcom is an American semiconductor and infrastructure software development company. Soon it is expected to close a merger deal with VMware, a cloud computing and visualization company, that will open new cross-sales opportunities for Broadcom to boost its revenues. Broadcom stocks are now 25% off their peak values.

According to the Q3 FY 2022 financial report that ended July 31, consolidated revenues grew by 25% year-over-year to $8.46 billion, and EPS went up by 40% to $9.73 per share. The semiconductors segment, that added 32% year-over-year, was the primary driver for the company’s profit. The company’s free cash flows (FCF) topped $4.3 billion, allowing it to spend $1.7 billion on dividends and 1.5 billion on the shares repurchase program. The company is planning to continue spending at least 50% of FCF on dividends that added 43% every year on average since 2016. 

According to the Q4 FY 2022 forward guidance, the company is expecting its revenues to go up by 20% year-over-year to $8.9 billion and for EDITDA to go up by 25% to $5.6 billion. Broadcom has great experience in expanding its product portfolio by M&A operations, and apparently it will continue on this way. The company is also expected to benefit greatly from the $52.7 billion CHIPS bill in the United States.


11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

15.12.2022
Three Undervalued Value Stocks: Costco

Costco Wholesale Corporation has presented quite disappointing earnings report for the Fiscal Q1 2023. Revenues were reported up 8.1% year-on-year to $54.44 billion missing expectations of $54.65 billion. This is obviously not the reason for long-term investors to remove COST stocks from their portfolios as the company is set to maintain strong financial discipline and cost structure, not to stimulate high growth in the short term at any cost.

The operational margin in financial Q1 2022 was at 3.4%, and in Q1 2023 it was 3.2%. Costco is aiming to provide the most reasonable prices on their products to keep their clients loyal. That is why the operational margin is suffering. Meanwhile, EPS was up by 4.4% to $3.1, and membership fees rose by 6% year-on-year. So, the strategy seems to be buying itself.

Inflation in the United States is expected to return under control over the next year. So, there will be no need to deliver various marketing activities like coupon sales and others while loyal clients will be grateful for the support during the period of uncertainty. Costco is planning to open 24 new stores in 2023, increasing its potential to generate revenues.

04.08.2022
Ethereum’s Most Important Update

ETH is a native token for the Ethereum blockchain and is one of the two most reliable digital assets in the market along with Bitcoin. Ethereum is the first platform that became a hub for thousands of blockchain apps and other digital solutions. The recovery of ETH prices to November 2021 peaks at $4,900 would bring investors 190% profit.

Second layer solutions (Layer2) were introduced to improve stability and effectiveness of the Ethereum blockchain. These are blockchain network add-ons that are added on top of the primary blockchain. The most popular add-ons are Arbitrum, Loopring, Immutable X, and Polygon that have recently partnered with Meta (Facebook owner). In other words, the Ethereum blockchain network has a much broader use than the native blockchain itself.

Ethereum developers promise to release a new Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus protocol in late 2022. This protocol will allow miners to stake tokens to a special deposit to mine blocks. Some networks within the Ethereum blockchain have moved to PoS protocol this summer, while others are expected to move to this protocol in the middle of September.  This move will allow for the increase of processing capacity of the network to almost 100,000 transactions a second from the existing 30 transactions and lower commissions. This would also allow for ETH to switch to the deflation model when coins are algorithmically burned, while some coins would be removed from circulation as they would be blocked by staking - more than 13 million ETH or 10% of overall coins in circulation are blocked by staking. The problem is that coins are blocked for a long period of time and cannot be sold or exchanged for fiat currency.

16.06.2022
Not Every Tech Stocks are Equally Strong: SAP

SAP stocks have lost 30% since the beginning of 2022. The German tech company develops enterprise software and solutions to manage business operations. For example, one of its services can be used  to manage all business travel financial activities and related spending. In other words, it is quite a routine company with  a stable and strong cash flow. Once SAP software is installed on a corporate level it is hard to do without it as it is deeply integrated into the business core processes. Moreover, SAP is restructuring its business model around its subscription base and this will allow for cash flows to be even more predictable and balanced through the financial year. Such a model is in favourable to Wall Streel investors.

The war in Ukraine has a 300-million-euro negative effect on SAP business, and it is only a marginal 1% of the overall revenue base for the company, while its dominance in the ERP segment is secure. The revenues added 11% year-on-year to 7.08 euros in Q1 2022. The revenues grew by 6% in  Q4 2021.

The company has made some successful M&A deals, acquiring Qualtrics, a cloud-based subscription software platform, that delivered +48% revenue in Q1 2022. This company had a gross margin above 90% in 2021 while SAP’s gross margin was at 70% for the same year.

SAP management promised to triple its cloud-based business by 2025, and boost revenues to 22 billion euros, while operational profit is forecasted to grow by 40% from the current 8.4 billion euros. This is a very extensive growth for the company that has a high P/E ratio at 17. The company may not perform very high growth rates as its younger tech sector peers, but it may certainly recover to new all-time highs in the long-term perspective. However, the sector may require several quarters to recover, and the recovery would be headed by such reliable companies as SAP with a low risk profile.

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Ontology Is Sliding Towards $0.2000

Ontology (ONT) is down 2.3% this week, trading at $0.2176, in line with the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) has declined 2.0% to $101,632. While the new U.S. administration has made some strides toward fairer crypto regulation, Donald Trump has remained silent on the highly anticipated issue of adding Bitcoin to U.S. federal reserves.

Market speculation is rampant, with figures like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggesting Bitcoin could surge to $700,000 per coin if sovereign wealth funds begin accumulating. Other forecasts predict Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end. While such projections could foster optimism, the lack of decisive action or announcements regarding U.S. crypto reserves is weighing heavily on the market.

For Ontology, the situation remains bearish. Having breached the critical support at $0.2500 last week, the token is now approaching the $0.2000 level. A failure to provide clear evidence or statements about U.S. federal crypto reserve plans could see ONT fall even further, breaching the $0.2000 mark and deepening its losses.

0
What's Keeping Investors from Buying Apple?

Despite the Wall Street spiked at a record high of 6,100.50 points in terms of the S&P 500 broad market barometer on Trump's second-term optimism, investors have been slow to act on Apple so far. Other tech giants are updating their all-time price peaks like Amazon did at $235, or adding more than 4% in a single trading session like Microsoft and NVIDIA performed on Wednesday, January 22, and even double-digit percentages in some cases like Oracle, thanks to unveiling a large $500 billion investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure by new White House dwellers to help the U. S. stay ahead of China in the global race. Meanwhile, nothing really positive happened around Apple, with some reputable analyst firms even downgrading shares of the iPhone maker.

This week, analysts at Jefferies Group, headquartered in New York since 1962 and having almost 4,000 employees, cut their rating for Apple stock to Underperform from Hold, citing their estimates of potentially missing both Q4 earnings targets and forward guidance for the upcoming year of 2025. Jefferies Group's forecast is a potential lack in Apple's revenue line within 5% and only "low single-digit revenue growth" for the current quarter, feeling supposedly weaker sales and outlook for iPhone 17 and 18 because of “slower AI uptake and commercialization” of built AI features. China's government subsidies, they say, may be limited and even exclude most iPhone models amid growing competition from local gadgets, while some "third-party survey" allegedly indicated that consumers in the U.S. "did not find smartphone AI particularly useful". Besides that, expected delays in Apple's advanced packaging roadmap could influence enhancing AI capabilities. The investigation house changed its prediction path for iPhone shipments from a 1% growth before to a 2% decline for Q1 2025 following a 4% YoY decline previously reported by the International Data Corporation (IDC).

As a response, the share price of Apple slid by more than 2% during the first working day of the week to touch its nearest $220 technical support area. Apple stock's price discount reached about 15% at this point, compared to its fresh high above $260 on the next day after Christmas. The share price of Apple later rebounded off the week's low by the same value of about 2%. However, Jefferies' updated price target on the tech giant's shares was reduced to $200.75, which implies a possible 10% of downside moves from the current levels a bit below $225 per share. In the same week, Loop Capital, a provider of integrated trading solutions from Chicago, joined to reassess Apple stock by shifting its estimates from formerly Buy to currently Hold, expecting "material iPhone demand reduction... from the March quarter. However, the group is projecting its strength "materially amplifying" back in the June and September quarters.

Based on these warnings and the latest market moves, we also feel that reasonable signs for purchasing Apple stock at optimum price could be postponed, with precise timing for profitable Buy transactions remaining indefinite. Yet, price levels around $200 per share could serve as a landmark, technically because of a deep low at $196 in early August 2024 which played a role of a catapult for the further and quick take-off to the sky up to $160 in December.

9
B
What Is a New Range for Netflix?

18.9 million new Netflix subscribers in the Christmas quarter raised the share price of my favourite and the world's largest streaming entertainment service to just a finger's touch from the four-figure mark of $1,000. With all my love for Netflix stock, this was surely a much higher number of newly arrived customers than I personally could have hoped for, otherwise I would have left all profits untaken across my entire stake in Netflix through the whole holiday season. But as you know, instead I chose to lock in most of the previously accumulated income before the end of 2024, when Netflix looked so overvalued at over $900 per share.

Well, Netflix quotes ended up soaring much higher, I feel mostly thanks to rather limited analyst poll bets of only 9.2 million subscribers added this time. Thus, actual achievements nearly doubled average estimates, with measures of monetisation also being high enough, which was expressed in quarterly earnings of $4.27 a share on sales of $10.25 billion, instead of $4.20 a share and $10.1 billion in consensus estimates. This naturally led to Netflix's market value surging by more than 14.5% at the highest point in after-hours trading extra session on the night of 21/22 January. However, the market price only fell gradually during the next day, without facing even a small group of willing buyers along the way down, at least till the closing price settled around $950 per share.

Traders will certainly be watching the further movements until the end of the week with a rising interest. Yet, I have to say that the firm's pure income from the growing number of users was well off record values of $4.88 to $5.40 per share during the first three quarters of 2024. Netflix's advertising tier exceeded over 55% of all new sign-ups, so that this important segment grew by nearly 30% QoQ. That's remarkable, but we could also take into consideration that ad-supported service will cost $7.99 a month only, just a little bit more than $6.99 in 2024, while the costly premium package would require $24.99 per user, which is 9% up from its current pricing. As a result, the overall growth of Netflix revenue and profit may be moderated until new advertisers' contribution offsets the difference in subscription prices.

Not a problem in the medium term for a creator of popular content, including Squid Game season 2 on track, with its Carry-On action thriller joining all-time list of Netflix's top 10 shows, as well as returning seasons of the Addams Family series "Wednesday" and the supernatural "Stranger Things" plus NFL games broadcasting. I have no doubt that Netflix is entering the next stage of its Golden Age. Everything will be wonderful in accomplishing its business plans, and I believe this is going to push the stock's price into a higher range, let's say between $825 and $1,000, with possible technical spikes above $1,025 or even as high as $1,075 at some points along the upward path. However, an even steeper bullish trend may not happen.

If the market crowd sees it exactly that way, then the first big Buys for Netflix stock will start closer to $925 or even around $900, where I would be ready to add it to my personal portfolio as well. But I wouldn't be surprised to see price jumps may later turn into a subsequent decline to touch the lower third of the new corridor. And so, if one day it declines to $850 or so, I would see a lot of sense in buying more Netflix. At the same time, I'm not sure I'm ready to take prices around $1,000 right now, based on the supposed ratio of potential profit and short-term risks.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
BAT Is Losing Ground

Basic Attention Token (BAT) is up 2.2% this week, trading at $0.2352, outperforming the broader market where Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 1.1%, reaching $105,026. However, the overall crypto market appears to be losing upward momentum.

BTC’s resilience above $100,000 has been bolstered by Donald Trump’s first executive orders, including the high-profile pardoning of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht. While this has provided some support, the broader crypto industry’s expectations are much larger. Investors are eagerly anticipating executive orders to officially add Bitcoin to the U.S. federal reserves. Failure to meet these expectations could lead to further market stagnation or decline.

For BAT, while it has performed well this week, its outlook remains cautious. Should the broader market weaken, BAT could face significant pressure, potentially declining towards its key support level at $0.2000, representing a further 14.5% downside.

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