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14.01.2025

Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

09.01.2025

VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

10.01.2025

Dollar Strength Is a Given

The very first slice of statistical data on business activity from the United States this year reaffirmed an almost clear irrelevance and even potential hurtfulness of any immediate steps towards further lowering interest rates on U.S. Dollar-nominated loans from a purely economic point of view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), based on polls compiled from executives in over 400 industrial companies in late December, came out at 49.3 points vs 48.4 a month ago and 48.2 in average analyst estimates. This showed that a slowdown was occurring at a slower or even insignificant pace, keeping inflation risks on the table, especially when the price component increased from 50.3 to 52.5 with a similar rate of increase in new orders. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI came out at 54.1 on Tuesday, compared to 53.5 in analyst polls and 52.1 a month ago, with a contribution of business activity components even jumped to a surprising 58.2 against declining from 57.2 in November to only 53.7 in December.

In other words, the economy is not cooling, and is rather in a positive acceleration, which in turn may lead to a recovery in wage rises and therefore to higher demand pressure, which may be reflected soon in higher producer purchase and output prices. Doubts of the major U.S. financial regulator are understandable at this point after its triple rate cut from 5.5% to 4.5% in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will now pay closer attention not only to consumer inflation measures, but also to producer prices (PPI), which is just going to be released on coming Tuesday, January 14. And so, this will become the next reference point in the further U.S. Dollar’s trajectory. The Greenback index (DX) is picking up steam since reaching a new record high for the last two years at 109.35, with its temporary pullbacks being limited by a 107.50 support area that previously served as a strong multi-month technical resistance.

In this context, the British Pound (GBPUSD) updated its lows since November 2023 to touch 1.2237 on January 9, EURUSD feels quite comfortable within a range between 1.02 and 1.0450, which corresponds to its 2-year bottom, and having a bias towards a possible further decline. The Aussie (AUDUSD) is one-step away from taking the path for a breakthrough to a quite unknown territory of its 5-year lows that were last time recorded when the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 happened.

A varying extent of the American Dollar strength is surely data dependent as the market community is eagerly waiting for the U.S. job data later today. The average expectations on new Nonfarm Payrolls is just a bit above 150,000 vs 227,000 in early December 2024 and nearly 160,000 for the previous four months on average. However, any value close to 150,000, plus or minus 20,000, or any higher number, may be considered as another positive sign for the Greenback, following the ADP national employment report which contained only 122,000 on Wednesday. The oppressive nature of average hourly wage in its dynamics, +0.4% each time from September to December, also matters.

The protective quality of investing more funds into the U.S. Dollar and U.S. bonds against tariff threats is switched on anyway, based on more than a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates on pause at its January 29 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials never go against a well-established market consensus, when it is almost unanimous, for not to rock the boat of relative market trend stability. The central bankers' reluctance to shift the Fed fund rates lower before mid-March, if not early May, continues to play in favour of short-term speculative transactions on the foreign exchange market, bearing in mind all the listed currency instruments. Some intraday volatility may take place, especially in the case of appearing an abnormal two-digit non-farm value, but not a change in overall direction.

14.01.2025

Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

06.02.2025

Perfect As the Enemy of Good

Here is the problem, which is nearly at a primary school level. A simple logical puzzle. A shopping street has two grocery stores. One of the stores is much more popular than the other. But both shops are full of customers every day. So both shops are raking in money. Sales output of a more popular store roughly doubled over the past year, from $14.5 billion to $30.8 billion - oh, yes, it's a very big shop - which led to tripling of its market value. Meanwhile, sales in the second store have already grown by 69%, albeit by its lower standards, namely from $2.3 billion to $3.9 billion. Please draw a conclusion, by what percentage the market value of the second store could increase, assuming that professional appraisers are rather objective. It seems ridiculous, but the correct answer is that the second store's market value lost 35% within the same year, and it even dropped by 50% from its peak price of the last spring. Holy Cow! That was a story of some failed expectations of mine. Since the big store is, of course, Nvidia, and the small one (and also, in fact, quite a prosperous marketplace) is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). And their goods are not essential food, but chips for artificial intelligence (AI) related data centers, which are also in high demand.

Moreover, AMD shares reportedly tumbled 10% additionally on February 5, only because the firm's AI chip revenue failed to be exactly in line with elevated projections of Wall Street analyst pool, which somehow bet on a 80% pace of data centre growth to as much as $4.15 billion YoY. Okay, one might say that Nvidia's "store" sells 8 times more chips that everyone needs. And even remember that Nvidia chips are of better quality, that Nvidia occupies about 80% of global chip market share. Again, Nvidia's last quarter will be finally counted only by February 26, when Nvidia's financial report is scheduled, a month later than in AMD's case. Like most large investment houses, here I have provided growth metrics regarding the major data center segment, which is a proxy for the AI playground, where AMD struggles to compete with Nvidia. Well, AMD CEO Lisa Su admitted that her company's data center sales in the current quarter may go down about 7% from the just-ended quarter, but this announcement was exactly in line with an overall expected decline. Is it really such a big deal that AMD shareholders have to experience pain from seeing their chosen stock falling to a 14-month low, with further need for a 100% rally just to match last year's record prices?

The same Lisa Su declined to give the particular forecast for the company's AI chips, but she said that AMD expects "tens of billions" of dollars in sales "in the next couple of years". And I see no reason to doubt her words. AMD CEO added that the firm is now working to compete against Broadcom (AVGO) in collaborating with its customers like Meta and Microsoft to create custom AI chips for their purposes, as Broadcom helps its partners to design their own chips, contrary to mostly "off-the-shelf" processors by AMD and Nvidia. They know their weaknesses as opportunities for strengthening to work in that direction, so what's wrong with the market's adequacy of perception? Perfect Nvidia is the enemy of good AMD, according to the crowd's opinion. Besides AI chips, AMD is also one of the largest providers of personal computer chips. Until recently, this point was generally the source of their main income. Consumers continue to buy new PCs, which also can handle generative AI tasks, by the way.

Actually, AMD has been the only loss-making company in my large portfolio for a long time, so it even makes me smile now. At least, because it is only a matter of time before AMD's pogo stick ultimately uncoils to come loose. Record annual revenue and earnings have to entail recovering to record market value eventually. I am not sure this will happen in the first half of 2025, even though AMD forecasts its revenue rise between $6.8 billion and $7.4 billion for the current quarter, with the market consensus midpoint being slightly lower at $7.04 billion. If you don't believe me then analysts at Stifel are of the opinion that AMD is well positioned for AI compute and "It is likely" that some of its customers "are waiting for 325/350 systems, which should drive a much stronger second half". Again, the median estimate by the Wall Street's analyst pool was now declined to about $150 per share vs $166.5 before the last downside move, yet even $150 sounds much better compared to $112 on closing price this Wednesday or an intraday low at $106.56 during the last trading session. Anyway, there is a strong technical and psychological support zone near the round figure of $100, from where AMD stock had begun its cool ascension in late 2023.

Rafael Quintana Martinez

Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/

14.04.2025

Maker Is Building Up Its Upside Momentum

Maker (MKR) is up 3.4% to $1,397 on Monday, outperforming the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) is rising by 1.2% to $84,581. The move comes amid a wave of improved market sentiment, driven by both macroeconomic factors and bullish technical positioning.

The recent rebranding of Maker to SKY had only a limited immediate impact on price, as MKR continues to consolidate on dips. However, broader optimism is being fuelled by easing geopolitical tensions—specifically, U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to reduce tariffs on Chinese electronics to 20.0%. While framed as temporary, the move is seen by markets as a symbolic retreat that could pave the way for reciprocal de-escalation by China.

This softening tone significantly reduces inflation risks, increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. A dovish shift from the Fed would be highly supportive of both equities and digital assets, including MKR.

Technically, MKR is consolidating near a key resistance level at $1,500. This setup, coupled with BTC’s advance above $83,000 and its potential breakout toward $91,000–93,000, presents a strong bullish case. A confirmed move through resistance could propel MKR into a new rally phase, with upside targets above $1,500 in play.

MKRUSD

Bash

11.04.2025

My Targets for the Euro and Gold Were Nearly Hit

Trump's international trade poker, which I described to you in more detail about a week ago, is currently working in Trump's favour, as the MAGA leader is seemingly holding the threads of tariff war spirits firmly in his hands, including the Chinese silk thread, but at the same time it is not at all in favour of the American Dollar. Which, however, may also be a cure for America's huge trade deficits, by the way. But that's not what traders are thinking about, of course. The Greenback's strength against a basket of other major currencies dropped below 99.00, in terms of the US Dollar index futures (USDX), and this actually happened for the first time since April 2022. It doesn't look like a high-wire act, since there was already a similar situation of USDX weakness in 2017-2021, and no one's died because of it, but for many ordinary people it rather gave a great chance to earn more money on currency speculations.

Right now, the biggest gainer has been the Swiss Franc with its still quasi safe haven status, as USDCHF has plopped down by about 750 basis points, from 0.88 at the very beginning of the month to almost 0.80, where it was last seen in the summer of 2010, on the way out of the great financial crisis of that time. USD/JPY also skipped six large figures from 148 to 142 for less than 30 hours, which was greatly supported by much weaker than expected US inflation indicators on Thursday afternoon. A minor 2.4% annualized CPI rise vs 2.8% a month ago has revived hopes for another Federal Reserve's interest rates cut, although only 30% of futures traders are still betting on such a dovish action on May 7, according to the FedWatch tool. However, 65% investors feel that a 0.25% interest rates cut may happen in June to prevent threats of recession due to trade battles, while more signs of reduced price pressure will allow this mission to be accomplished by the financial regulator.

Gold price achieved its new all-time high around $3,250 per ounce on the weaker US Dollar and trade war escalations, nearly hitting my previous target price I wrote before. Meanwhile, EURUSD is also about to hit my supposed 1.15 target, peaking at just a 27 points distance below the landmark. The Euro rally was probably facilitated by President Xi Jinping's address to Spain’s prime minister today in the morning that China and the EU should join together in defending globalisation and opposing "unilateral acts of bullying", which was clearly against Trump’s tariff guidelines. In his first public comments on the point, Xi said there could be "no winners" in any trade war, while the EU had a key role to play in ensuring global economic stability. On the same day, French president Emmanuel Macron called Trump’s decision to delay reciprocal tariffs for 90 days a "fragile" pause. In his recent post on X, former Twitter, Macron argued that the "partial suspension of American tariffs for 90 days sends out a signal and leaves the door open for talks,", but "this pause is a fragile one," he said, noting that Trump’s 25% tariffs on European steel, aluminum, and cars remain intact, as well as a broader 10% tariff on all other products, and the halt only means 90 more days "of uncertainty for our businesses, on both sides of the Atlantic and beyond". Although Macron mentioned potential negotiations with the White House, the frightened money fleet moved from the US to Europe at a speedy pace. Well, fortune favours the brave, but for me, both persons are not strong enough against American trade pressure.

The squeezing of short positions against the Greenback in all major currencies already took place later when investors became more convinced that three consecutive attempts to decline of the S&P500 broad barometer to its 5,150-5,250 new support area each time faced hot purchases from those bottoms. In terms of the foreign exchange market developments, it may turn out that growth above 1.15 on EUR/USD is still possible, but far from being guaranteed. And so, trades in both directions within the price ranges of 150 to 200 points already look more reasonable. The next hypothetical targets like 1.18 simply may not be reached at all if deep buying on US stocks intensifies next week. In this scenario, a pullback to at least 1.12 on the Euro will be inevitable, with a simultaneous rebound in USD/CHF and USD/JPY. Spontaneous uncertainty in currency pairs may then return until the world trade situation stabilizes, as even the same EURUSD had returned to 1.0888 after the first spike to 1.1150 in the first three days after Trump's announcement on April 2.

Rafael Quintana Martinez

11.04.2025

IOTA Could Be on the Verge of Lift Off

IOTA (IOT) is climbing 9.5% this week to $0.1599, strongly outperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is up 5.0% to $82,870. The sharp recovery in digital assets comes amid a temporary pause in the U.S.-driven global tariff war, which has revived investor appetite for risk.

Markets are now speculating that the U.S. may soon enter trade negotiations with China, especially after signs of easing inflation. This could prompt the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate cuts—an unequivocal positive for the crypto sector.

Bitcoin is currently testing the critical resistance zone at $81,000–$83,000. A decisive breakout above this range could trigger a broader altcoin rally. For IOTA, this would mean a potential exit from its long-standing wedge formation, opening the path to key targets at $0.2000 and possibly $0.3000.

IOTUSD

MetadoroIn-house analytics

10.04.2025

It Was, And Still Is, A Great Time to Buy

U.S. President Donald Trump was fair to market crowds, when he generously left a brief note on his Truth Social platform, which sounded like a perfect and timely trading signal. Early in the morning on Wednesday, April 9, Trump's message read: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well”. His usual charm routine "The USA will be bigger and better than ever before!” as an enhancement slightly confused investing minds, as he actually combined the rather abstract conclusion on economic bargains for America with a much more concrete asset purchases' agenda. However, Trump's undisguised call to buy and a well-known biblical saying, "according to your faith so shall it be", have made all the rally believers rewarded sooner than most of them expected.

Several hours later, it became very clear to everyone from Trump's more official announcement, why this was supposed to become such a great moment to buy U.S. stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 3,000 points, or 7.87% in one trading session, while the S&P 500 broad barometer of Wall Street added 9.5%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite soared 12.2% before the closing bell of the day. Needless to say that the bullish rally in equities resumed in such a powerful way to follow a 90-days pause for the so-called reciprocal tariffs between the U.S and more than 75 countries, previously considered as a mortal threat to international trade. The pause gesture included 46% for Vietnam, 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, 32% for Taiwan etc. Before this day, both Donald Trump himself and some members of his team just commented that tariffs can be permanent, but it could still be negotiated as an option at some point. And now it has finally become evident even to market sceptics that the frightening sizes of some tariffs originally represented a starting position in order to make all others horse-trade for mutually suitable conditions.

Trump himself, and U.S .Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later, confirmed tariff pausing is needed as a relief to give enough time to negotiate thoroughly in case of each country. These formulations essentially ended the panicky negative effects of the trade war, making it clear once and for all that the whole tariff project was designed as a tool of negotiation, to make horse-trade and not a plain or self-sufficient tariff war. Trump's decision has slapped 125% tariffs on China alone, citing "the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets", a direct consequence of China's latest move to impose as much as 84% tariffs on US goods, up from the 34% previously announced.

if tariffs are low enough for all others, say, due to future agreements on changing the structure of trade turnover, but they are prohibitive for China, then such a situation will not last long, so that benefits for the entire world and a special severe law for China will also lead to nothing other than mutual concessions between Washington and Beijing in the end. The fact that China rejected this path from the very beginning did not go unnoticed by Trump, while no one else played hardball to receive proper treats already. The world has not united around China in an attempt of tough and rather futile resistance, but is calling Washington offices, looking for soft solutions. Trump is certainly not going to kill world economy. He is simply negotiating according to his own classic book on how to do it in order to achieve the result he needs. After shocking effects and panic, when the peak of a psychological influence is reached and tough arguments worked enough, he emphasizes the need for flexibility in decisions, mentioning that sometimes you have to “go under, over, or around a wall” to achieve the result.

And now we have the U-turn reversal pattern on all the three major U.S. indexes, as well as all major big techs. The stock rebound is more than convincing, because the reasoning behind it is strong. The bounce is still smaller, and the further share price dynamics is still under question only for Apple, which is more dependent than other flagship U.S. businesses on production chains in China and cannot assemble too expensive iPhones in America. For every other tech giant, the future will not be totally cloudless, of course, but the market bottom is almost certainly passed. And so, not only was it a great time to buy, believing in yesterday, but it is still a great time to buy so far, when the major stock recovery confirmed. If the rebound so far has "only" reached the 5,400 level in S&P 500 index terms, after a low near 4,800, then the minimum target can be set at 5,850, if not even above 6,000 again, when all the dust after a lasting negotiation period finally settles.

US500