News and analysis

The U.S equity market, Bitcoin and numerous tokens lost much of the gains accumulated during previous couple of months. The S&P 500 broad barometer plummeted from its well above 6,750 points achievements to 6,510 as a weekly closing level, losing 3.33% within one regular session. The crypto environment lost a reported $8.5 billion in less than one hour due to massive liquidation of bullish bets while BTCUSD was sliding from $122,000+ to the bottom of near $105,000, only to bounce back more than halfway to the $115,000 area over the weekend. All those tech behemoths with trillions of market caps in their pockets fared much better as well, with chip designer Nvidia and hyping EV-maker Tesla adding more than 3%, Google search generator of ad income, cloud data and e-commerce platform Amazon, social media giant Meta with its stable ad revenues rising all up about 1.8% already in the first trading hour of US Monday morning, October 13. Broadcom (AVGO) shares are doing exceptionally well, soaring by nearly 10% after today's strategic collaboration pact with OpenAI for deploying 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators to signify "a pivotal moment in the pursuit of artificial general intelligence," said Hock Tan, CEO of Broadcom. There are big businesses that don't care about this trade fray at all, like Netflix, which barely suffered on Friday, and they even had their ratings boosted by some investment houses.

Investors appear to have been knocked down but are quickly recovering from the blow of U.S.-China aggressive trading rhetoric. So, what exactly happened? Beijing is introducing export controls with a permitting procedure for rare earth metals. Chinese authorities added some "special" port service charges for American ships. However, Beijing has already commented that the country's export controls "are not export bans", so that "any export applications for civilian use that comply with regulations will be approved, and relevant enterprises need not worry", according to China’s commerce ministry. Could this affect military production for Pentagon orders, such as the latest F35 jets? Probably yes, just as it could also serve as a negotiating tool for U.S.-China's competitive measures in the cutting-edge AI chip segment, but the blackmail strategy in the latter case is a two-way street. Thus, Donald Trump's announcement on Friday of 100% tariffs on all Beijing goods starting November 1 also looks like a simple muscle-flexing exercise ahead of his scheduled meeting with Xi Jinping before that deadline date.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent already confirmed in his interview with Fox Business Networkthat Donald Trump was "on track" to meet with China's supreme leader in South Korea as the two sides "have substantially de-escalated". Scott Bessent added that sharp countermeasures from Trump last Friday would not go into effect until November 1, with the meeting still being "on". There will also be "lots of staff-level meetings" this week on the sidelines of the World Bank and IMF (International Monetary Fund) annual meetings in Washington, he said. Trump himself and his vice-president JD Vance already opened the door to the upcoming China deal. Trump hinted at a possible off-ramp for Beijing to reassure spooked markets by writing on Truth Social: “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!” JD Vance called on Beijing to “choose the path of reason”, claiming that Trump has more advantage if the fight drags on.

In short, our major conclusion is that just like the things developed after Trump's "Liberation Day" in early April, with his massive and double digit tariff package for almost each and every country, here we deal again with simply preparatory verbal shelling that won't necessarily lead to actual combat and tall trade barriers. Most fundamentally strong market assets not only survived but also grew to become even much stronger, rapidly rising during last six months, and they'll continue to do so on another act of dip buying. This week and the next one could be used by many investors for accumulating their money resources to purchase even more tech stocks, especially AI-related ones, and more crypto assets for their investment portfolios and just for the sake of short-term speculative activity on cheaper giants. We estimate that this re-buying process could begin even right now or within a few days.

Dogecoin (DOGE) is rising by 2.0% to $0.2017 on Monday, attempting to recover after a devastating plunge on Friday, when it collapsed by 66% to $0.0830. The crash was triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, which sent shockwaves through global markets and pushed Bitcoin down by 15.8%. Although Trump later attempted to downplay the impact of his decision, the resulting $40 billion one-day wipeout in the crypto market left deep scars. Dogecoin is now struggling to hold above the $0.2000 level, and failure to stabilise here could open the door to another decline below this threshold.

Tesla stock's amazing rally, from $350 to $470 at its peak in less than one month, now stalls ahead of the company's Q3 2025 earnings report, which is scheduled for the late night of October 22nd. Those investors who are still betting on further rise of the hyping EV maker are hoping that Tesla would fly again beyond its former $25 billion milestone for quarterly revenue, which Tesla had successfully surpassed in 2024 and held for a while, then sliding into remarkable sales decline, to $19.34 billion during the first three months of 2025 which partially improved only to $22.5 billion from April to June, as well as persisting payback compression from $1.19 per share according in its record January 2023 figures to just $0.12 and $0.40 within the first two quarters of the current year. This compression effect mostly happened due to discount promotion policy amid tough competition with Chinese rivals in Europe and Asia.

This troubled time seems to have been overcome, as Tesla has finally announced the launch of its long-promised affordable electric vehicle models. However, Tesla bulls were slightly disturbed this Tuesday because both versions of best-selling cars, namely Model Y compact crossover and its Model 3 sedan seem to have too high starting prices of $39,990 and $36,990. This makes it a bit harder job to attract a new class of buyers to the brand. In fact, Elon Musk, warned many months ago that the very chance of creating a mass-market electric car for $25,000, which he promised for years, should be forgotten forever due to irreversible inflationary consequences after the money printing by central banks after the COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions preventing cheaper productions and deliveries. However, the public was probably aiming for around $35,000 per unit. Now the price has obviously advanced higher. New cars drop some premium finishes and features, but they cost only about $5,000 less than the next-level trims. Yet, they still offer driving ranges above 300 miles before recharging.

Tesla chose to build lower-priced versions of its current models. Now some experts believe that the cheaper EV cars may cannibalize sales growth of existing vehicles while others call this a kind of pricing lever instead of being a product catalyst. Many have doubts in appearing large-scaled new demand, also citing profit margin squeezing in the whole segment in the US because of upcoming $7,500 tax credits incentives system elimination. But Tesla could win against its rivals as no other automaker has such a big network of battery stations, AI-based robotaxis innovations and robotics sales contribution. Tesla is now much more than just an electric car maker. Regardless, the stock price continued its moderate correction path on the announcement of details about affordable models, falling from over $450 before the news to a retest of $425 the following day.

Tesla traded at nearly $433 in the pre-market trading this Friday, October 10, but investment minds' confusion is looming. While we have no fundamental doubts that Tesla has an ultimate capacity of hitting price targets well above $500 within the next 6-9 months, but widespread and fast wave of profit-taking with a retest of levels like $375 to $395 could easily be the crowd's initial response if Tesla team's financial projections for 2026 prove inconclusive on earnings day. Tesla price swings could continue in the days to come even before October 22. The indicated lower price range looks technically justified.

Cosmos (ATOM) is down 1.0% to $4.095 this week, nearly matching Bitcoin’s (BTC) performance, as the leading cryptocurrency slipped 0.8% to $121,651. Market sentiment remains cautious after Fed Chair Jerome Powell skipped his scheduled public appearance on Thursday. He is expected to speak next Tuesday, just before the release of September inflation data.

If Powell adopts a softer tone and inflation shows signs of easing, Bitcoin could resume its rally toward the next resistance zone at $127,000–$130,000. Such a move would likely lift altcoins as well, offering ATOM a chance to break out of its prolonged trading range between $3.500 and $5.000. A confirmed breakout would open the path toward the next resistance near $7.500.