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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

Visa Is at a Crossroads on the Floor Below

Visa stock lost nearly 4.5% of its market value this week, despite a 12% YoY surplus in its Q2 earnings on July 23. It came out at $2.42 per share basically in line with consensus estimates, but 3.5% below the previous quarter's record number, while the global card service's revenue rose 1.35% to set a new historical high at $8.9 billion. However, some large brokerage houses chose to cut their price targets for the company on growing concerns about slowing growth in customer spending, especially in the U.S. (due to higher interest rates) and China's payments industries.

These are just a few examples. Mizuho financial group reduced its price estimate for Visa share price from $275 to $251, while keeping a neutral rating. Jason Kupferberg at Bank of America Securities reduced his price target from $297 to $279, as the results were not as good as the banking institution actually expected, sparking "louder debates about the growth outlook for [Visa’s] core business, which we estimate slowed to ~3%". Visa's growth in the U.S. was just +5%, which was not surpassing the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for the quarter, and therefore not above the inflationary pressure effects.

Argus Media, an independent provider of price information and consultancy services, is from a moderately optimistic camp on Visa, however it also revised its target area from $310 to $290, which only corresponds Visa's all-time high of March 2024. Arvind Ramnani at Piper Sandler maintained an Overweight rating for Visa but also cut the price target from $322 to $319, citing international transaction and data processing revenue lags "slightly below modeled estimates". A higher target, previously marked at $326 by Morgan Stanley analysts, has been lowered to $322. Will Nance at Goldman Sachs shifted its price target from $334 to $317, even though reaffirming a Buy rating, given "weaker volumes in APAC" (Asia-Pacific region) as well as "softer macro trends" in July.

Visa's CEOs confirmed their own full-year guidance for 2024 for "low double-digit" revenue growth and "in the low teens" for EPS, which means stagnation in the second half of the year considering current results. A white stripe was that cross-border volumes (excluding within EU transactions) added 14%, yet it may be attributed much to the spring and summer season of travelling.

Anyway, Visa share price is struggling around $255 for the last three days, with several attempts for intraday rebounds, but each time diving under this waterline again. New Buy positioning is possible only if the price will prove its resilience to the current bullish pressure to break through a technical resistance at $265 per share (here is an overnight gap level on July 23/24). Otherwise, a failure below $250 per share may lead to a short-term sell-off with a quick retest of a lower $228 to $240 range of October 2023.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Loopring Is looking for $0.2000

Loopring (LRC) is experiencing a significant decline, dropping 12.5% to $0.1500, which is notably steeper compared to Bitcoin's (BTC) 1.3% drop to $67,220. This downturn is primarily attributed to a recent hack in early June resulting in a $5.0 million loss, which has sent LRC prices sideways. Despite this, the token managed to breach the resistance of the downside trend established on March 15, 2024.

There are two potential scenarios for LRC's future. The positive scenario with an upside recovery to $0.2000 has more chances to materialize. The downside scenario suggest a decline to $0.1000 followed by a subsequent recovery to $0.2000.

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Recovery Is Not Far Off for Burrito Makers

Chipotle Mexican Grill initially soared by nearly 10% in after-hours on July 24, after the restaurant chain revealed strong second quarter results, especially with an increase in margins (because of its pricier menu, and what else did you expect?) complemented by growing rice bowls and burrito demand. However, the stock retraced to keep less than 4% of its overnight leap, which gives me a reason to talk about a rare opportunity to buy cheap enough but on solid fundamental momentum.

Comparable sales in the same restaurants climbed 11.1% YoY vs consensus forecasts of a nearly 9%, with expected further growth "in the mid-to-high single-digit" percentage for 2024, CMG CEOs said. Their customers' foot traffic grew 17% during the quarter, when the average number of traffic increase was only at 0.63% in the whole segment of fast-food and quick services (according to Placer.ai). A major slowdown is here yet setbacks seemingly don't cross the way Chipotle Mexican Grill goes.

The chain's stock gained from $44 in January to nearly $70 per share in late June, when the split using 1:50 ratio happened. Of course, I calculate the pre-split prices considering the split, which gives more than 55% of a price jump in the first half of 2024. Later the price retraced by 25% to nearly $50 on worries about inflation damaging household budgets. Now we see that things go better than the crowd feared, and so the next recovery stage is probably not far off, even though this recovery may be preceded by another fall for a while.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Tezos Is Rushing to the Upside

Tezos (XTZ) is experiencing a significant drop of 10.0% this week, falling to $0.7230. This decline follows a strong resistance at $0.8000 and is part of a broader retreat in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) also fell by 6.5% to $64,000, though it is expected to recover quickly once the market stabilizes, which could help Tezos surpass the $0.8000 resistance.

Despite the recent drop, Tezos has positive internal developments that could support a price recovery. Bitfinex recently announced it is enabling deposits and withdrawals for Tether (USDt) on the Tezos blockchain, making Tezos the twelfth blockchain protocol to support USDt. Additionally, Tezos is actively participating in “Plastic Free July,” highlighting its role in the art world, and has launched Athletics Rush, an official mobile game for the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. These initiatives provide strong backing for a potential price increase in the near future.

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