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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Halving May Support ETC

Ethereum Classic (ETC) experienced a 2.0% decline to $27.24 this week, albeit without any significant underlying catalyst. The token briefly reached $28.96 on Monday before retracing.

Throughout the week, ETC tested both the resistance and support levels of the established uptrend dating back to October 20, 2023. Both levels demonstrated resilience, effectively maintaining prices within the confines of the ascending channel. However, the resistance level appears somewhat weaker, hinting at a potential upward movement.

Market sentiment anticipates a bullish trend following the halving event scheduled for May 31. Historically, pre-halving rallies have resulted in a doubling of prices. Consequently, there is optimism that ETC may surpass the $30.00 resistance level post-halving. A target of $35 per token, representing a 57% increase, appears feasible under these circumstances.

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Buy and Hold in May and Go Away

Shares of semiconductor producers, which I particularly value as the most important part of my investment strategy, have gained a fresh upside momentum and climbed up once again on reports from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association) that chip sales exceeded their normal seasonal dynamics in March. Therefore, Broadcom Inc (AVGO) stock price increased by 2.52%, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose by 3.44%, NVidia (NVDA) rose by 3.77% and Micron Technology (MU) added 4.73% to its market price on Monday, May 6.

SIA is a trade association, or to be more precise is a powerful lobbying group and a voice of the American semiconductor industry, yet it used to calculate its sales number carefully. This time it said the amount reached $50.8 billion in the U.S., meaning a solid 16.4% MoM surplus. Preliminary estimates of analysts at a reputable Citigroup, for example, pointed to $50.1 billion keeping its whole year chip sales forecast at 11%, even though its brokerage division represents a rather bullish camp on the issue. In combination with some insights from analog companies this may support a better prospect of planning inventory replenishment in the second half of 2024, Citi supposed in a client's note. Analog and microcontroller units faced a remarkable growth by nearly 50%, which is much higher compared to the average 20%, which would be typical for the very beginning of spring season.

This makes me even more optimistic to not be in a hurry or rush with fixing profit ahead of this new wave of the chip fever before summertime. So, a well-known traders' proverb "Sell in May and go away" could easily be converted into a "Buy and Hold in May and go away" sentence, in my humble opinion, especially as the S&P 500 also continues to recover after its recent price adjustment stage in April. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector's ETF (SOXX) on NASDAQ added 2.08% the same day, bouncing from a dip at 198.4 on April 19 to 220.6 at the moment (11.2% for about a couple of weeks) to reach more than 55% of a return in the recent 12 months. A successful assault on the heights above 240 is on the nearest agenda, with expectations of new record prices for leading chip stocks as the basic scenario.

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Storming of a $430 Wall Could Result in the $500 Fortress Capture by Microsoft

Microsoft rushed up above $410 per share climbing skyward again after double testing of its $390 technical support area on April 25 (on Meta Platforms fall), and then on April 30 - May 1. One more step upstairs were surpassed thanks to a media leak saying that Bill Gates' created giant is now training a new generation in-house artificial intelligence (AI) language model which is going to become large enough to compete with similar monsters from its partner startup OpenAI (which was a pioneer designer of ChatGPT) and Google.

A supposed internal name of this new model is MAI-1. The work on it is being performed under control of recently hired Mustafa Suleyman, who previously was a co-founder of Google's DeepMind and former CEO of AI startup Inflection. MAI-1 is allegedly not taken from Inflection, even though the model could be partially built based on a bulk of training data from the startup, as Microsoft tapped Suleyman and several of his Inflection colleagues in March. The report also mentioned that Microsoft might preview MAI-1 at the build developer conference later in May. There are not many details so far, yet sources said MAI-1 will be "far larger" (having roughly 500 billion parameters) than a smaller, open source model called Phi-3-mini (having 3.8 billion parameters) with its cost-effective options for a broader circle of potential users which the company had previously trained. This would be the next and stronger move ahead by Microsoft, which has already invested billions and billions of U.S. Dollars into OpenAI.

Besides, sources noted that Microsoft is setting aside a "large cluster of servers" equipped with NVidia's GPUs (graphic processing units). Additional amounts of data processing is needed to improve the new model. This prompted the Wall Street crowd to buy more NVidia stocks so that the company share price climbed more than 3.5% during the next trading session on May 6. NVidia is now at arm's length from hitting its all-time highs, with four-digit numbers beckoning investors again. Storming of a $430 wall would be the prelude for the major $500 fortress capture within several months.

As the AI race providers at large, reputable investment houses are also optimistic about prospects of Google, which is called as a “clear winner” in the ongoing AI revolution "to change a lot of naysayers, skeptics, and shorts opinions", according to Mizuho, yet most experts are not so much sure about Apple’s approach to deploying AI. Investors have been “struggling to understand” it, in contrast to rivals who have been "more overtly assertive in their endeavours and investments related to this burgeoning technology", Evercore investment banking firm said, though AI is "viewed as an improvement to its existing ecosystem, serving to augment and weave together the experience for its over 2 billion iOS users". Apple has taken "a more measured approach" compared to other big tech giants who have invested tens of billions Dollars.

The Worldwide Developers Conference held annually by Apple would start on June 10 and may bring more light to expected iOS environment visual search features or advanced options for photo editing or using Siri voice assistant. Meanwhile, there were signs that Apple may collaborate with Google or other partner companies in cloud solutions for AI. This may strengthen partners to a higher extent than Apple itself. Meanwhile, Apple stock wasted more than $5 per share out of its recent $186.82 nearly three-month peak of May 3, following Q1 earnings release and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway decreasing its stake in the company.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Ravencoin May Near $0.0400 Following Bitcoin Rebound

Ravencoin (RVN) saw a 3.2% increase to $0.0317 this week as it attempted to rebound from the support level at $0.0300, setting its sights on $0.0400.

The token lacked internal catalysts to drive its momentum, thus largely relying on the overall performance of Bitcoin (BTC). Bitcoin managed to regain ground above $60,000, with potential targets set at $70,000. Should Bitcoin sustain its upward trajectory, RVN may approach the resistance level at $0.0400.

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