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10.01.2025
Dollar Strength Is a Given

The very first slice of statistical data on business activity from the United States this year reaffirmed an almost clear irrelevance and even potential hurtfulness of any immediate steps towards further lowering interest rates on U.S. Dollar-nominated loans from a purely economic point of view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), based on polls compiled from executives in over 400 industrial companies in late December, came out at 49.3 points vs 48.4 a month ago and 48.2 in average analyst estimates. This showed that a slowdown was occurring at a slower or even insignificant pace, keeping inflation risks on the table, especially when the price component increased from 50.3 to 52.5 with a similar rate of increase in new orders. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI came out at 54.1 on Tuesday, compared to 53.5 in analyst polls and 52.1 a month ago, with a contribution of business activity components even jumped to a surprising 58.2 against declining from 57.2 in November to only 53.7 in December.

In other words, the economy is not cooling, and is rather in a positive acceleration, which in turn may lead to a recovery in wage rises and therefore to higher demand pressure, which may be reflected soon in higher producer purchase and output prices. Doubts of the major U.S. financial regulator are understandable at this point after its triple rate cut from 5.5% to 4.5% in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will now pay closer attention not only to consumer inflation measures, but also to producer prices (PPI), which is just going to be released on coming Tuesday, January 14. And so, this will become the next reference point in the further U.S. Dollar’s trajectory. The Greenback index (DX) is picking up steam since reaching a new record high for the last two years at 109.35, with its temporary pullbacks being limited by a 107.50 support area that previously served as a strong multi-month technical resistance.

In this context, the British Pound (GBPUSD) updated its lows since November 2023 to touch 1.2237 on January 9, EURUSD feels quite comfortable within a range between 1.02 and 1.0450, which corresponds to its 2-year bottom, and having a bias towards a possible further decline. The Aussie (AUDUSD) is one-step away from taking the path for a breakthrough to a quite unknown territory of its 5-year lows that were last time recorded when the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 happened.

A varying extent of the American Dollar strength is surely data dependent as the market community is eagerly waiting for the U.S. job data later today. The average expectations on new Nonfarm Payrolls is just a bit above 150,000 vs 227,000 in early December 2024 and nearly 160,000 for the previous four months on average. However, any value close to 150,000, plus or minus 20,000, or any higher number, may be considered as another positive sign for the Greenback, following the ADP national employment report which contained only 122,000 on Wednesday. The oppressive nature of average hourly wage in its dynamics, +0.4% each time from September to December, also matters.

The protective quality of investing more funds into the U.S. Dollar and U.S. bonds against tariff threats is switched on anyway, based on more than a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates on pause at its January 29 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials never go against a well-established market consensus, when it is almost unanimous, for not to rock the boat of relative market trend stability. The central bankers' reluctance to shift the Fed fund rates lower before mid-March, if not early May, continues to play in favour of short-term speculative transactions on the foreign exchange market, bearing in mind all the listed currency instruments. Some intraday volatility may take place, especially in the case of appearing an abnormal two-digit non-farm value, but not a change in overall direction.

14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

16.01.2025
Delta Is Taking Off To Update Its Highs

Delta Air Lines stock rose markedly by low double digits in the first ten days of the new year. The U.S. carrier has served more than 200 million customers in 2024, when it was also recognized by J.D. Power, a leading American data analytics and consumer intelligence company, for being No. 1 in First/Business and Premium Economy Passenger Satisfaction. Travelers became more willing to spend extra money for swanky seats when meeting a high level of service. Delta is just positioning itself as the nation's premium airline. And what's more important, its Christmas quarter's earnings reportedly surpassed average analyst pool projections. Driven by stronger travel demand, smart financial management and capacity discipline, Delta business provided last three-months' profit of $1.85 per share vs $1.28 at the same period one year ago, compared to $1.75 in consensus estimates. On January 10, the airline industry leader put its future profit levels within a range between $0.70 and $1 per share in the current quarter through the end of March, while analyst expectations were focused on $0.77 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. The starting months of each year always perform worse. It is clear that all carriers made losses in the Covid years of 2020-2022, but Delta profits only recovered into a range from $0.25 to $0.45 in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively, but Q1 profit numbers varied from $0.75 to $0.96 even in the three blessed years before the pandemic. Delta added that it is forecasting annual earnings in excess of $7.35 a share, which would be the highest in its 100-year history, based on its planned revenue growth of 7% to 9% in the March quarter from a year ago. The announcement could be compared to an adjusted profit of $6.16 a share in 2024. The company happily breaks through ticket prices' rising effects, almost undisturbed by a reduction in airline seats in the domestic market, which was peculiar for most carriers. Thus, new expectations created a fertile ground for setting new price records, even though price movements on Delta charts look most convincing among its other American rivals.

By the way, Citigroup analysts freshly updated their outlook on Delta Air Lines shares to raise their price target to $80 from the previous $77, vs the actual range around $65 per share where the stock just came after a reasonable market correction from last week's and all-time highs. Citigroup said it has included factors like higher revenue per available seat mile, projections of slightly lower fuel prices, increased taxation, a minor rise in share count, and the incorporation of fourth-quarter 2024 results into their financial model, which has projected Delta's profit at $7.49 per share in 2024 and $8.72 in 2025. Delta shares are Buy-rated at Citi, and we agree with their positive estimates in general, while keeping in mind even better price goals somewhere between $82.5 and $85.

14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

New Target for Microsoft at $550

In addition to our small research two weeks ago, where we discussed possible arguments in favour of re-establishing appropriate price targets for shares of Microsoft above $500, similar estimates are now finding reputable support from analysts at Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and some other flagship investment institutions. Shares of the Windows developer, by the way, have climbed from $435 to almost $460 since then, achieving another double-digit growth.

As we mostly relied upon high and still growing demand for cloud technologies from Microsoft's Azure division as the major catalyst for further growth, Goldman Sachs analyst Kash Rangan also shared his confidence in Microsoft’s AI investments bolstered during the Microsoft Build conference in Seattle, where the tech giant reportedly focused on its $300 billion-plus forecast for its cloud segment revenue by the fiscal year of 2029. The ambitious figure followed the strong uptrend in Microsoft Azure's cloud revenue, which grew at a current pace above 14% YoY. Kash Rangan also admired Microsoft’s rising efficiency in terms of capital expenditure profile, including a 3% reduction in working force, as he called it "a positive development". Rangan especially mentioned a stronger momentum of GitHub Copilot with an AI coding agent from Google-backed startup Anthropic and more than 15 million developers clients already for managing their code bases, an introduction of Copilot agent and Copilot Studio for fine-tuning and orchestrating multiple AI agents, as well as the Foundry service for open agentic web development plus the "ongoing scaling of Azure", which now works in over 70 regions globally. As a result, he just announced an increase in the price target for Microsoft to $550 on Tuesday, May 20, which is a nearly 15% upside revision from Goldman Sachs' previous market value estimate of $480.

More than 20 other analysts of leading investment houses and banks on Wall Street improved Microsoft's earnings estimates upward in May, mostly citing the company’s AI initiatives, deepening platform integration and its commitment to an open agentic AI through the Model Context Protocol (MCP) to form even a more perfect developer tool ecosystem. As an example, Citigroup analysts have raised Microsoft’s price target to $540 from $480 this week, with a Buy rating again. These are all drivers of maintaining Microsoft’s cool leadership, so that the most valuable company in the world is shifting from GenAI infrastructure projects to its various platform application layers, which may mirror the earlier transition "from on-premises to cloud-based solutions", according to Rangan again. Meanwhile, the EU officials are close to accepting Microsoft’s recent proposal to adjust the pricing of its Office products to cut the Gordian knot of a lasting antitrust issue.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Dogecoin is Rallying on Market Positive Sentiment

Dogecoin (DOGE) is rising by 9.0% to $0.2430 this week, riding the wave of Bitcoin’s (BTC) phenomenal 16.0% surge to a new all-time high at $111,865. This explosive move followed the U.S. Senate’s approval of the stablecoin GENIUS Act, which sets up a regulatory framework for stablecoins and is expected to channel significant capital into the crypto space.

Investor enthusiasm is building across the board, with DOGE benefiting from the broader rally. The momentum could propel the meme coin toward the $0.3000 mark, with the potential to extend gains toward $0.4000 if market conditions remain favorable.

8
Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Tezos Poised to Continue the Rally

Tezos (XTZ) is trading flat at $0.614 this week, underperforming the broader crypto market as Bitcoin (BTC) rises by 2.0% to $106,200. The token appears to be consolidating after breaking through key resistance at $0.600. It reached a recent high of $0.700 on May 13—the highest level since March 28—before pulling back to retest the new support zone.

This retest suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend. Momentum is supported not only by improving overall market sentiment but also by the recent Rio upgrade, which enhances staking flexibility, bolsters Layer 2 development, and strengthens the validator framework. With these developments in place, XTZ may continue its upward trajectory toward the next target at $0.800, representing a potential 30% gain from current levels.

5
Home Depot Rides a Rising Tide

The share price of the U.S. and multinational home improvement retailer Home Depot initially jumped $10, from under $380 to nearly $390, or 2.5%, in the first few minutes after the opening bell on May 20. The price later dropped to test the $380+ area again, but was bought back to climb by nearly 2% once again. This probably consolidated the overall positive contribution of the corporation's quarterly earnings released that day to a more than 15% rising tide since its April 9's low at $328.60, when the market just got rid of the scourge of global tariff war in its most acute form.

Home Depot's sales clearly beats the analyst pool's estimates. Its overall comparable sales slid by 0.3% in the last three months, but reportedly hurt by weaker results in February because of improper weather. All in all, the company posted net sales of $39.86 billion, that is 1.5% better vs average expectations of $39.25 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. At the same time, adjusted EPS (equity per share) came out at $3.56 vs $3.60 expected and $3.63 in the same season of 2024, but all those numbers look much higher than the one-off drop in profit numbers to only $3.13 per share in the Christmas quarter.

Two points were seemingly most important for keeping the investment sentiment on a positive side. The first point is that The Home Depot promised to hold its consumer prices unchanged despite tariffs' threat, citing resilient demand from professional contractors to lead to maintaining its former annual forecast unchanged. The other one is that the company's CFO Richard McPhail ensured that in the next 12 months, no single country outside the U.S. will represent more than 10% of its purchases", after it has cut its previously high exposure to China substantially in recent years. A well-diversified supply chain strategy should help Home Depot to "generally maintain current pricing levels across its portfolio", he added.

The HD's oath to keep prices steady are especially vital in contrast to Walmart’s warning only several days before that the major U.S. discounter may have to implement higher prices tags due to tariffs, which immediately drew the ire of U.S. president Donald Trump, who claimed that Walmart should "eat" the import tariffs and not to pass on the costs to consumers. This public controversy hasn't actually stopped Walmart from continuing its upside rally, but Walmart appears to have much more fundamental reasons for growth, and so a similar story with Home Depot could hurt its stock's performance.

Now, even though Home Depot could hardly be called a stable growth stock and it may be subject to moderate volatility as before, the Home Depot's ultimate price targets above $425, just corresponding to its January's highs of 2025, still prove their right to be kept in mind for the rest of the year. This happens despite some consumer-facing companies have shared rather sad quarterly results, pulling down their YoY forecasts.

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