Notizie e analisi

Tesla is trading above $420 today! Rising by as much as 20%, or $70 compared to the opening price of around $350 per share just three business days ago, at the pre-market on September 11. Taking summer consolidation lows for bigger long bets has borne many sweet fruits.

You know, I was among those Tesla optimist campers who vowed sleeplessly and loudly enough about an inevitable move well beyond a multi-month $350 barrier soon. Meanwhile, the area of $420 has been considered by many enthusiasts, including me, as the first likely mid-term target. And I keep my next price target for another half of my personal stake in Tesla just a bit above $500, valid for late 2025 or early 2026. However, this mark of $420 deserves at least half of the profit-taking volume. Surely, not only because it is one of Elon Musk's favourite numbers, inextricably linked to the pot culture he aimed at in his very old tweets years ago. The point is that the mark was also reached too quickly right at the moment. If we had been climbing here gradually for several weeks, I wouldn't even have looked back at this step only to take a breath, but now the horny crowd produced a kind of too volatile scenario.

While I understand Tesla as a very real and powerful value as a giant business not just in the segment of cutting-edge electric cars and also parts and gas stations for them, but as a pioneer in AI robotics, I'm a little put off by the overly lightweight reasons behind the stock's recent rise.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV last Friday morning, Tesla board chair Robyn Denholm clearly dismissed all those quite common misconceptions that Elon Musk’s political activity had allegedly depressed Tesla sales globally. She called the eccentric multi billionaire as "front and center" at the company after he resigned from his temporary job at the White House. "What he does from a personal perspective in terms of his political motivations is up to him," she added as "obviously we’re in a democracy, so everyone gets to voice their points of view". Robyn Denholm delivered all those comments just days after Tesla’s board officially launched a $1 trillion "compensation plan" for CEO Elon Musk, in what would be the largest corporate pay package in history. Denholm admitted there’s some investor fatigue around the matter of Musk’s previous controversial 2018 pay plan of roughly $50 billion, still nominally tied up in a Delaware court. But she thinks the latest $1 trillion proposal is what investors want, even despite the Cybertruck, launched in 2023, is still not in the sales top while Tesla's pretentious bet on robot cars' wide distribution all over the world is still in its infancy with a limited taxi service in Texas. “Our view is the opportunity ahead is far greater with Elon at the helm than without,” she emphasized.

Well, Musk’s ambitions into party politics heightened concerns among Tesla investors. The board has recommended shareholders, during its annual meeting, to vote against a radical proposal on political neutrality, which could prohibit the company's team from endorsing any political party. This will not hurt sales, the board chair said, but without mentioning new figures. That's very good, but many were wondering if that was enough for a 7.5% price move to the upside in one day on September 12. The genuine background behind the move was revealed today, after a regulatory filing showed that Elon Musk himself had purchased nearly $1 billion worth of Tesla stock in the course of that Friday's session. Before this, Musk held a roughly 13% stake in Tesla, and this Monday he disclosed additional buying of 2.57 million Tesla shares in open-market transactions on Friday. He paid between $372.37 and $396.54 per one item, showing much confidence in the further price growth. That's why last Friday's move was so fast, as many investors eagerly joined Mask-initiated rise. And Tesla shares jumped up to another 8% on Monday, because of the same news on Musk's purchase. What a cool way to move a stock price up and then hit the Repeat button just by talking about it! Gorgeous, I'm enchanted! He already earned much money by spending $1 billion only, out of this future $1 trillion income, and he also increased his share at Tesla.

Before that, Musk threatened to build AI and robotics products somewhere outside of Tesla if he cannot get 25% voting power. Now his strategy is clearer to do this inside the Tesla company, and he will surely not sell his stake at $420 or even above $500. But I am a small investor to earn my little money, and I will take some profit here at $420 and hope to repeat this successful action somewhere above $500 as well some time later.

Harmony (ONE) is down 4.3% to $0.0104 this week, underperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which slipped 1.0% to $114,978. The token is once again testing the strong $0.0100 support that has held since January 2021. Over the past five months, prices have consolidated in a narrowing range around this level, a pattern that typically precedes a strong breakout. Given the proximity to firm support, the move is more likely to the upside, with $0.0150 as the key resistance target. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision could act as the trigger for such a move.

Shares of AbbVie pharmaceuticals hit an all-time record this week. This nearly $400 billion capitalized stock closed at $220.22 on September 11, up 4% from the previous day's performance, with an intraday high being at $221.76. The rise of the pharma sector is not as impressive as for so many cases in AI industry. On average, this process could be called rather restorative, even for big pharma stocks, but Abbvie as a real giant of the sector is a pleasant exception, having added about 30% from April's local lows corresponding to the tariff storm. And it has room for additional appreciation by market crowds and experts in the nearest 6 weeks before its scheduled quarterly earnings call on October 24.

Historically, Humira prescription drug to reduce the signs and symptoms of moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis has been the crown jewel of AbbVie's commercial success, with its annual revenue reaching extraordinary heights around $20 billion globally. This was once Abbvie's best-selling drug, now battling severe competition from cheaper biosimilars produced by rivals since 2023. It has been reported in the mid-week, however, that no generic competition for Abbvie's currently blockbuster immunology drug Rinvoq used for similar diseases could be seen until 2037 at least. Again, the settlement with largest generic makers, which is subject to certain provisions in the U.S., is going to prevent sales erosion of Rinvoq within this 12-year timeframe, marking a 4-year extension compared to previous public estimates. Chris Schott at JP Morgan & Chase said the extension for its Rinvoq franchise gives AbbVie "years of runway on one of its key growth drivers" develop and test more now-experimental drugs ahead of any potential loss of exclusivity in the mid-2030s.

Humira is a biologic that blocks the so-called TNF (tumor necrosis factor), while Rinvoq scientifically is a JAK (Janus kinase) inhibitor that works inside cells to block signals causing inflammation. They also differ in how they are administered as Humira is an injection, whereas Rinvoq is a daily oral tablet. Rinvoq is also being tested for diseases such as alopecia areata, vitiligo, hidradenitis suppurativa and systemic lupus erythematosus. Rinvoq's annual sales for 2024 were $5.97 billion, a 46% increase from the prior year, while its Q2 2025 sales already reached $2.028 billion, another 41.8% of remarkable surplus YoY, accounting for more than 10% of total Abbvie sales. The figures contribute much to AbbVie's overall sales, with the combined sales of $15.42 billion in Q2 2025, with Rinvoq and Skyrizi projected to exceed $31 billion together by as early as 2027. Skyrizi is a brand name for a biologic injection to treat plaque psoriasis, its net sales reached $11.7 billion in 2024, a more than 50% increase vs 2023, and generated $4.4 billion only in the previous quarter to marking a 62% increase on an annual basis QoQ.

For us, the "fair value" of Abbvie could be estimated within the range of between $235 and $250 per share. We will wait and see when the opinion of the market crowd joins these reasonable estimates. This may happen before the end of this year or later in the spring of 2026, depending on investors' immediate response to the quarterly report in late October.

Litecoin (LTC) is adding 1.5% to $115.74 this week, underperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which is rising by 3.4% to $114,487. LTC could be preparing for stronger moves as the SEC decision on a spot LTC-ETF approaches in October. Such approvals typically attract institutional investors and increase liquidity. Expectations of a dovish Fed stance may also support momentum. However, the token remains capped by the uptrend resistance at $125–126, which it unsuccessfully attempted to break in August. The nearest target is $120, and a decisive move above that level could open the way towards $140.