• Metadoro
  • Products
  • News and analysis

News and analysis

Check market insights shared by our community members
14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

10.01.2025
Dollar Strength Is a Given

The very first slice of statistical data on business activity from the United States this year reaffirmed an almost clear irrelevance and even potential hurtfulness of any immediate steps towards further lowering interest rates on U.S. Dollar-nominated loans from a purely economic point of view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), based on polls compiled from executives in over 400 industrial companies in late December, came out at 49.3 points vs 48.4 a month ago and 48.2 in average analyst estimates. This showed that a slowdown was occurring at a slower or even insignificant pace, keeping inflation risks on the table, especially when the price component increased from 50.3 to 52.5 with a similar rate of increase in new orders. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI came out at 54.1 on Tuesday, compared to 53.5 in analyst polls and 52.1 a month ago, with a contribution of business activity components even jumped to a surprising 58.2 against declining from 57.2 in November to only 53.7 in December.

In other words, the economy is not cooling, and is rather in a positive acceleration, which in turn may lead to a recovery in wage rises and therefore to higher demand pressure, which may be reflected soon in higher producer purchase and output prices. Doubts of the major U.S. financial regulator are understandable at this point after its triple rate cut from 5.5% to 4.5% in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will now pay closer attention not only to consumer inflation measures, but also to producer prices (PPI), which is just going to be released on coming Tuesday, January 14. And so, this will become the next reference point in the further U.S. Dollar’s trajectory. The Greenback index (DX) is picking up steam since reaching a new record high for the last two years at 109.35, with its temporary pullbacks being limited by a 107.50 support area that previously served as a strong multi-month technical resistance.

In this context, the British Pound (GBPUSD) updated its lows since November 2023 to touch 1.2237 on January 9, EURUSD feels quite comfortable within a range between 1.02 and 1.0450, which corresponds to its 2-year bottom, and having a bias towards a possible further decline. The Aussie (AUDUSD) is one-step away from taking the path for a breakthrough to a quite unknown territory of its 5-year lows that were last time recorded when the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 happened.

A varying extent of the American Dollar strength is surely data dependent as the market community is eagerly waiting for the U.S. job data later today. The average expectations on new Nonfarm Payrolls is just a bit above 150,000 vs 227,000 in early December 2024 and nearly 160,000 for the previous four months on average. However, any value close to 150,000, plus or minus 20,000, or any higher number, may be considered as another positive sign for the Greenback, following the ADP national employment report which contained only 122,000 on Wednesday. The oppressive nature of average hourly wage in its dynamics, +0.4% each time from September to December, also matters.

The protective quality of investing more funds into the U.S. Dollar and U.S. bonds against tariff threats is switched on anyway, based on more than a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates on pause at its January 29 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials never go against a well-established market consensus, when it is almost unanimous, for not to rock the boat of relative market trend stability. The central bankers' reluctance to shift the Fed fund rates lower before mid-March, if not early May, continues to play in favour of short-term speculative transactions on the foreign exchange market, bearing in mind all the listed currency instruments. Some intraday volatility may take place, especially in the case of appearing an abnormal two-digit non-farm value, but not a change in overall direction.

23.01.2025
Ontology Is Sliding Towards $0.2000

Ontology (ONT) is down 2.3% this week, trading at $0.2176, in line with the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) has declined 2.0% to $101,632. While the new U.S. administration has made some strides toward fairer crypto regulation, Donald Trump has remained silent on the highly anticipated issue of adding Bitcoin to U.S. federal reserves.

Market speculation is rampant, with figures like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggesting Bitcoin could surge to $700,000 per coin if sovereign wealth funds begin accumulating. Other forecasts predict Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end. While such projections could foster optimism, the lack of decisive action or announcements regarding U.S. crypto reserves is weighing heavily on the market.

For Ontology, the situation remains bearish. Having breached the critical support at $0.2500 last week, the token is now approaching the $0.2000 level. A failure to provide clear evidence or statements about U.S. federal crypto reserve plans could see ONT fall even further, breaching the $0.2000 mark and deepening its losses.

09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Graph Is Reclaiming Its Upside Trajectory

The Graph (GRT) is up by an impressive 21.4% this week to $0.1022, sharply outperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 10.2% to $93,835. This rally appears to be technically driven, as GRT had recently dropped well below the key $0.1000 support level. With sentiment improving, the token rebounded quickly once that level was reclaimed.

Bitcoin's climb above the major resistance range at $90,000–92,000 is an encouraging signal for the overall market, though a clean break above $95,000 would offer a stronger confirmation of bullish momentum. If that occurs, it could ignite a broader rally across altcoins, including GRT.

For now, GRT is targeting the next major resistance around $0.1500, with further upside likely if Bitcoin continues to lead the way.

9
IBM Failed to Make It through DOGE Traps

International Business Machines (IBM) income growth seemed unshakable until today, so solid that shares of this well-known company had even managed to recover to levels seen before Donald Trump's first and severe official tariff announcements in early April, but the prosperity seems undermined by the contracts that DOGE cancelled. The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, under the U.S. sitting administration is indulging in massive cost cuts, which affected 15 IBM contracts amounting to about $100 million. This represents less than 1% of the order backlog in IBM’s consulting unit, according to its finance chief James Kavanaugh, who appeared to Reuters TV on Wednesday night for comments.

However, those contract cancellations created a rather deep and previously hidden trap that sent the surviving computer-age dinosaur's share price down by more than 7.5% compared to a daily range of $245-$250 per share on April 23, hours before the company's quarterly report, to below $230 in pre-market trading the following day. The news became the final straw of fretfulness to turn investors' negativity mood exactly at a time when tariff battles already clouded the crowd's outlook for the global economy.

To jolly up Wall St confidence, IBM even broke from its long-standing practice of not revealing further guidance ranges. Now its inner April to June sales projections lie in the range between $16.40 billion and $16.75 billion, well above the analyst pool's average estimate of $16.33 billion. "We felt incumbent upon ourselves to give as much transparency as possible to our investor group," James Kavanaugh commented. IBM CEOs also maintained their previous target of achieving quite a solid 5% sales surplus on a constant currency basis before the end of 2025.

Somewhat better-than-expected Q1 2025 sales, 0.9% up YoY to reach $14.54 billion vs $14.41 billion in consensus estimates could not decrease the extent of downward pressure, when it became known that IBM's consulting segment revenue fell 2% to $5.1 billion, even though this was roughly in line with nominal expectations, according to LSEG data. Earnings per share in Q1 was at $1.60, was more than twice lower than the company's absolute record at $3.92 in the Christmas quarter, but this should not be a one more cause for regrets, as the current number was also much better than preliminary analyst pool estimates of $1.40 per share, helped by high-margin software segment.

There are moments when a market sell-off, once started, cannot be calmed down overnight. Irrational reactions cannot be influenced in an instant coffee style, but soon the dust will settle. What is worrying now may soon turn into an opportunity to buy deals. One just needs to be attentive and monitor the dynamics of the asset day by day. Despite today's mess, we remain goal-oriented with the door open to IBM's next target area between $275 and $300.

What other reasoning behind a positive mid-term stance? IBM is supposed to be impacted minimally under U.S., China's or other countries' tariff horse-trading, as the company has very limited direct exposure outside the US. As an example of new opportunities for IBM's expansion is its so-called AI Book of Business, which is a cross sales combination of bookings and actual orders across various products. It stood at more than $6 billion from inception to date, as much as $1 billion up from the calculations made three months before.

66
B
Texas Instruments Is Out on a More Solid Ground

For the first time ever I am making a turning glance to this chipmaker, which didn't set the world alight unlike some others did. What led me to look over there, being rather excited with my find, was alleviating tariff concerns by the company, which predicted the current quarter's delivery well above estimates. Texas Instruments (TXN) has climbed as much as 8.5% in the pre-market trading on April 24 to touch $165 a share, with a bottom at $140 this April to follow its mid-February highs above $205, offering a nice reward/risk profile of 1.6:1. This is now a prominent ratio even for the attractive semiconductors equipment industry, with room for growth of approximately 25% upwards. Even the downtrend line readings, if plotted for the entire downward correction since early November 2024, are at almost $195 per share, which is about $30 per share from today's opening price.

When analysts pressed CEO Haviv Ilan on whether customers may be stockpiling chips ahead of higher levies barriers, his answer was "I would guess that at times like this, when there is a little bit of anxiety, do you want to have a little bit more inventory on your shelves?" He believes that customer inventories are "at low levels across all end markets" while "the industrial market increased upper single digits after seven consecutive quarters of sequential decline" and the automotive market also "increased low single digits" to offset mid-teens decline in the personal electronics segment. "We are in an up cycle... there is nothing I would call specifically versus Q1 other than the continued strength in industrial... The industrial signal is now, I would say, probably five months or so... I don’t see right now at least any slowdown there", Haviv Ilan, when answering a clarifying question. His business typically gets nearly a fifth of its total sales from China, so that it could be potentially exposed to tit-for-tat tariff battle between Beijing and Washington, but the company is relying on its fabrication facility based in China if needed, Ilan added. This may help Texas Instruments to properly address China's domestic demand in case of high import levies for US-rooted chips when brought in China.

With a market cap above $135 billion, Texas Instruments not only reported much better-than-expected earnings per share for the first three months of 2025, hitting $1.28 vs the average analyst estimate of $1.06 (i.e. beating forecast by 20.75%) on quarterly revenue reaching $4.1 billion instead of $3.91 billion in consensus opinion, but also projected its Q2 profit between $1.21 and $1.47, on revenue between $4.17 billion and $4.53 billion, compared with analyst pool’s $4.10 billion. The company's CEOs marked robust demand on analogue chips to keep a strong competitive position, including China's market, a moderate level of debt but strong liquidity with a current ratio of 4.12. During the earnings call, questions were raised, of course, to know more about potential tariff impacts and Texas Instruments’ potential of adjusting its supply chain because of this challenge, but the company's management reassured that flexible manufacturing allows quick adjustments to minimize immediate tariff damage, at least.

As Haviv Ilan said on Wednesday, they "spent some time looking at previous events, including the global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic... while no two scenarios are identical, these recent examples help inform our decisions as we prepare for a range of market scenarios", so that Texas Instruments "will adapt and succeed in a world that is ever changing". Well, as a very adoptable investor, I too will likely try to adapt and thrive in the rapidly changing market dynamics and will be willing to buy this stock happily if the high prices are sustained and not wasted by this week's close.

106
Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Coin 98 Is Likely to Bounce off $0.0500

Coin 98 (CNE) is up 5.0% this week to $0.0583, underperforming the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 8.6% to $92,238. While the crypto space remains in rally mode, momentum has paused slightly following Bitcoin's breakout above the critical $90,000–92,000 resistance. The move to $94,618, driven by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, is now being tested. A successful retest would likely renew bullish momentum, supporting further gains across altcoins.

CNE, however, is showing relative weakness. It’s hovering near key support at $0.0500, a level that has historically provided a floor but offers little cushion should prices fall further. The lack of strong support below this threshold is concerning, though it may also signal the formation of a bottom if the token stabilises here.

The Coin 98 community remains on alert amid concerns surrounding the DeFusion sell-off between April 24–25. However, there is no current indication that this event will materially impact CNE prices. For now, holding above the $0.0500 level remains critical.

67
1

Join our community

Share your professional and amateur observations, exchange experiences, anticipate developments

Category
All
Stocks
Crypto
Etf
Commodities
Indices
Currencies
Energies
Metals
Instruments
Author
All
Metadoro
Contributors