News and analysis

This time, I thought it would be more appropriate to outline the major nodes for further scenarios surrounding Tesla before the quarterly report is released.

First, what is important for me right now is that the market crowd is obviously more positive about Elon Musk's business than the pool of Wall Street experts. This can be seen from a very quick purchase session for Tesla shares at prices like $320+, which were only available for a short time on July 22, while the price before the closing bell was $1.50 above the next round figure of $330. In other words, when wiseasses are still talking about Elon’s political exposure and doubting if Tesla can or cannot overcome future credit revenue losses due to The One Big Beautiful Bill Act adoption, most investors believe in robotaxi rollout for a much higher payback. Volatility is all here in the market, and a wise investor is using volatility chances to take dips for Big Long bets.

Thus, it’s enough for the bulls that Musk's rhetoric and that of his inner circle do not fail completely to keep the crowd horny, and then the numbers can do the rest. It could be easy for Tesla to deliver beating analyst estimates as the latter are very low now at $0.28 for earnings per share (EPS) vs $0.42 in the same period of 2024. It's surely possible to be weaker than feared, but it's more difficult than be at least a bit stronger!

That’s why my tactic lies in simply keeping my cherished buy trades in Tesla open before the fateful night, especially since technically Tesla recently bounced off its 52-week average around $300 per share. My basic scenario for Tesla is now to climb, if not jump, in one impressive leap to break through the binding ties of the $350 resistance area.

My point is that we may not have time to gasp before we see a 7% to 10% increase in the after-hours price on Wednesday, if Musk's verbal hypnosis factors about robo-taxis development and affordable electric vehicles plus smaller-than-expected year-on-year decline and some quarter-to-quarter rise in supply numbers may coincide. I agree to hold positions for this basic scenario as a more reasonable option of what to do, compared to buying later at a two-digit percentage higher. However, if the second scenario occurs, with some deeper dive to 300+ or even $300- again, I would add more Tesla shares to my tech portfolio. This may happen if the numbers really disappoint tonight but it won't be easy to break the backs of the bulls with scepticism, except to bend our horns a little.

Musk tweeted yesterday that he's going to live and even sleep in the Tesla office 7 days a week when his kids are not at home. He can't blow his main business. I take the similar most horny approach to Google stocks as well, as Google will also report tonight. I believe that cloud division's revenue and ad-related search segment’s contribution with Gemini's AI capacity and the extent of its wow-effect on sales are the three key drivers to define the pace of the further Google rally to $220 per share at least.

Ravencoin (RVN) is down by 2.3% to $0.01570 this week, significantly underperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is up by 0.3% to $118,450. Ravencoin had a standout performance in June, surging by 124% to $0.02426 after gaining momentum from its listing on the Upbit exchange. However, the token pulled back sharply to $0.01248 in early July before recovering above the key resistance level at $0.01500.

While a retest of the $0.01500 support remains possible, the broader market outlook suggests the upside is more likely. The crypto space is seeing renewed optimism, especially after Trump Media and Technology Group announced it had purchased $2.0 billion worth of Bitcoin. With major players onboard, BTC could continue its climb toward $150,000, potentially lifting altcoins like Ravencoin along the way.

The EURUSD pair fell sharply from the 1.17300–1.17800 range earlier in July to a low of 1.15560, before rebounding on speculation around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s potential resignation. With that risk now largely off the table, downside momentum may return. The pair looks poised to resume its slide toward the initial target zone of 1.15000–1.15500.

This pullback presents an attractive opportunity to re-enter short positions. I plan to open a short trade in the 1.16800–1.17400 zone, aiming to capture the next leg of the decline. A stop-loss is set at 1.18500, safely above the 1.18290 four-year high, which serves as a strong technical resistance.

Ahead of the widely anticipated parade of tech giants, when Google, Tesla and IBM need to confirm the strength of the overall tech rally on the night before July 24, a modest quarterly release of the world's leading streaming service Netflix, with its market value of "just some" half a trillion greenbucks, released last week, went nearly unnoticed. This is quite understandable, because the Q2 figures had not much food for deep thought inside them to impress the investment community this time. If so, the market purely dropped from under the $1275 closing price on July 17 to test the $1200 area. However, this $75 initial pullback represents only 5.88% of Netflix's share price, not enough to generate active buying interest in an asset that grew from $927.50 on April 1 to an all-time high of $1341.15 by the end of June.

It went 44% up in three months, then pulled back 5% long before the Q2 report, and roughly another 5% after the report. The path behind suggests that all the clever bulls who rode the rally have done their job properly, and then took profits from their quick actions in two short waves, but overall expect this growth to continue gradually. They are simply not ready for intense action right from the current levels. This can also be judged, since the initial rebound in the beginning of the new week has been rather small so far, just within 1.5%.

I would draw my personal range of potential valuation for Netflix shares in the coming months, the bottom of which could be between $1050 and $1100. Yet, I don’t see any options or fundamental reasons for the asset to move lower. So, anything closer to $1100, if the market would give us such prices, is a basic territory for active Netflix purchases, with targets around $1450 to start with, I would say. This harvest looks modest in terms of quantity, though promising good taste if we appreciate small but easy profits in a short period of time. Again, buying any local dips in Netflix could later transform into a story when one bought near long-term lows.

After all, if the quarter before next earnings can result in just price stagnation no higher than $1450 or $1500, then the next earnings report on October 15 can boost the rally again. The only thing is that Netflix would barely cost $1100+ or $1200 at that moment. I think so because Netflix lifted its annual revenue guidance on July 17 to a higher range between $44.8 billion and $45.2 billion, thanks to "healthy member growth and ad sales" plus "weakening USD". Its previous guidance was up to $44.5 billion. Its April-to-June results topped consensus estimates as well, albeit slightly. There was no sign of weakness, that's my point! I don't like the "Squid Game" because I'm not a fan of hardcore. But the final season of this global phenomenon already helped Netflix to do math in Q2, and the streaming service's CEOs cited its effect when raising their forward guidance for the year as well. So I like the money that Netflix and I will make from this stupid story.

Yes, some part of the crowd did hope for more from the dominant movie in Q2, but Q2 diluted EPS (earnings per share) of $7.19 was only an inch higher than $7.08 in consensus forecasts. I suppose those expectations will be justified at last, after a short delay, that is, in the next two or three months, and during this time, some newer plots will do the rest of the job. "Wednesday" returns in August, and it seems to me that Tim Burton's style has an audience that does not quite match the audience of the Squid Game. So, new folks will come to pay and see. The final episodes of "Stranger Things" will be released in November and December to create extra expectations for the Christmas quarterб which always sells itself. From this, I conclude that we shouldn’t expect too deep lows, and then there may not be any explosive growth, but... before the end of the year, Netflix shares will make many small steps up. You will not notice how you will find yourself on a new peak with them.