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The first and largest cryptocurrency had again failed to cross over the major psychological border at $70,000 just a few days ago. We feel it was a good try anyway, and not the last one before the year's end, even though the mid-summer rollback repeated itself. The current week is clearly a time for retracement, with a potential for Bitcoin price to slide somewhere into the area near 65,000 or slightly below. Yet, the fundamentals behind our estimates of future developments whisper that the crowd of crypto traders would barely step into the same river twice, as this is not the same river anymore. Increased market bets that Donald Trump is going to win the 2024 elections mean a high likelihood of another attempt to hit multi-month highs as political factors probably formed the main driver for Bitcoin's ascending from its local dips below 60,000 to nearly 70,000 in October. Public polls show it's rather neck and neck race between Republican and Democratic nominees, but Wall Street got its own beliefs.

The point is that "Harris stocks" generally include renewable energy, electric vehicles, healthcare and defence segments, which are in a low or uncertain mood during the last couple of weeks when the S&P 500 and especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average are growing. A very fresh example of losing ground by Lockheed Martin weapon contractor could be noted. Typically "Trump stocks" like oil and manufacturing enterprises are feeling much better, as well as some of his former personal favourites like Oracle. Our conclusion at the moment is that money reallocation signs in the real world hints at least a 60% chance of Trump's victory, with supposedly a 40% chance for Joe Biden's vice-president Kamala Harris to take his chair in the White House for the next term.

And what does it mean for Bitcoin prospects? The Democratic administration has reputations of crypto haters. A set of high-profile lawsuits from the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission has polluted the air for the industry. Harris was trying to distance herself from Biden's heritage when she briefly touched on the subject of improving a regulatory framework for crypto. This also offered support for a potential crypto rally in case of her victory, but she didn't give details of such plans. If markets would agree with polls to change positioning for a tight presidential election, then "with clear policy statements supporting crypto from the Harris campaign, the market seems less worried about downside and finds it attractive to bid here. Bitcoin ETF inflows, crypto equity markets and retail trading sentiment is screaming ‘risk-on’,” Bernstein noted this weekend. But Bitcoin lovers already transformed into Trump supporters as Trump more clearly called many times on a largely pro-crypto stance, even promising to build the future of U.S. governmental reserves on Bitcoins in America. His election campaign even accepts donations in crypto.

Bitcoin becomes a so-called Trump trade. Thus, if he wins, Bitcoin may reach $100,000 in nine to twelve months. Bloomberg wrote on October 22 that Bitcoin options traders eye $80,000 no matter who wins U.S. election, just increasing bets that Bitcoin will reach this record high by the end of November. "The open interest... for the call contracts expiring on Nov. 29" is focused around $80,000 with the second most popular strike price at $70,000, the article said, while the open interest for the calls expiring on Dec. 27 "is clustered around $100,000 and $80,000", while "the most popular strike price of the calls expiring on Nov. 8 is at $75,000". Further rate cuts "are seen contributing to the optimism". In other words, the global depreciation of the buying power of the entire currency basket in relation to the whole variety of goods and services, combined with the need for businesses to bypass restrictions, are favouring Bitcoin's rally. The Greenback strengthened this month on expectations of rather moderate 0.25% rate cut steps at the November and December meetings by U.S. central bankers. This only smoothed the crowd's aspiration to climb higher on Gold and Bitcoin, but did not cancel its desire to own more digital money instead of traditional money.

And if so, we now may sing along with Nobel Laureate Bob Dylan who famously called everybody to admit that "the waters around you have grown" and that "soon we’ll be drenched to the bone", while feeling "better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone for the times they are changing". It's probably a time to recognize the new realities to avoid just sitting on the sidelines when the crypto movement would start gaining momentum.