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24.11.2022

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

28.12.2022

The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022

Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts.

11.08.2022

Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12^th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022

The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

Rafael Quintana Martinez

Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/

21.11.2024

Synthetix is Losing Momentum

Synthetix (SNX) is up 3.0% this week, trading at $1.650, lagging behind the broader market where Bitcoin (BTC) surged 10.0% to a new all-time high of $97,890. Earlier in the week, SNX rallied by 19.7% to $1.909 but failed to sustain those gains, retreating after hitting the middle of its ascending channel.

While an upside recovery remains the likely scenario, it faces a strong resistance zone at $1.900-$2.000. If SNX manages to break through this level, it could gain significant momentum, potentially rising by 50% to reach $3.000.

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MetadoroIn-house analytics

20.11.2024

Not Every Retailer's Performance Is Encouraging: Lowe's

Unfortunately, some leading U.S. retailers failed to inspire investors. While Walmart (WMT), Costco (COST) and Home Depot stocks continued to rise in November, Lowe’s Companies (LOW) lost nearly 5% this week, despite improved forward guidance and nominally better than expected quarterly results in both top and bottom lines, yet it was a peanut compared to a 18% plunge in the market value of Target Corporation (TGT) in today's pre-market trading.

Lowe’s is a well-known big box home improvement chain, which operates over 1,700 stores and employs about 300,000 associates. The stock became clearly overbought by mid-October as its market value increased by almost a third since the beginning of 2024. That's why updating historical records at $287 per share led to a natural price correction, which accelerated its pace when Q3 numbers confirmed that the chain's revenue and profit came down YoY, even though moderately beating consensus estimates. Overall, further sliding below $250 per share, or even to $225-235 per share, is our baseline scenario at the moment, with the stock's potential to willingly resume its uptrend after bottoming out.

Lowe’s provided net sales of $20.2 billion in the recent three months, better than $19.95 billion averagely expected by expert polls but 1.5% below its achievements in the same quarter of 2023. Same store sales lost 1.1% YoY, hit by big-ticket items, especially large "do-it-yourself" projects. Online sales and loyalty programs grew to soften the damage. Another portion of good news is that the company's management coped well with the task of cutting costs of sales, which came down 1.5% to $13.4 billion, while administrative and other expenses only added 1.7% to $3.8 billion. This helped to improve additional losses of profit, which were reduced to 11.5% vs potentially worse analyst projections.

Based on this data, the company's own guidance for the whole year of 2024 was adjusted to a higher range of $83.0 to $83.5 billion, vs $82.7 to $83.2 billion in August estimates, but it was still below the $84 billion to $85 billion range, which was set at the beginning of the year. The guidance for same store sales drop has been lowered in Q2 from the 2% to 3%, and now it is raised to a range between 3.0% and 3.5%. It is still better than the previous estimate of a 3.5% to 4.0% loss in same store sales.

XRT

MetadoroIn-house analytics

20.11.2024

Not Every Retailer's Performance Is Encouraging: Target

More complicated scenarios could be related with Target stock recovery after the chain of hypermarkets surprisingly generated only $1.85 of quarterly EPS (equity per share) vs $2.10 in the same period of 2024, $2.57 in Q2 2024 and $2.30 in consensus projections for the recent quarter. The revenue of 25.67 billion was only slightly lower but mostly in line with average forecasts around $25.87 billion. This means that the discount policy was good enough in maintaining sales, not profits. Potential dip buyers and mid-term bulls may be terrified by currently entering into Black Friday, then Cyber Monday and finally launching the Christmas season, with growing chances of exacerbating the overall pattern. Target CEOs commented on potential holiday quarter sales by revealing their profit forecast of $1.85 to $2.45 per share, compared to the Wall Street's analyst pool hopes for $2.66 per share, with flat comparable sales projections YoY, instead of consensus bets for 1.64% gains.

"We are seeing the consumer become increasingly resourceful and strategic on how they shop," the chief commercial officer at Target, Rick Gomez, said, following the chain's cutting its prices on thousands of essential and gift items, as well as food, beverages and toys. According to Gomez, only apparel sales were weaker than normally with warmer-than-usual weather across the United States. Spending on other items was strong but the seller probably benefited from lower prices less than consumers did. Again, persistent weakness in selling higher-margin items like home decor and electronics is still here for Target when more families are watching their budgets.

While Amazon, Walmart or even TJX are performing better plus raising their inner predictions for holidays, Target looks to be more careful by moderating its 2024 forecast to between $8.30 and $8.90 in terms of EPS (equity per share) from its own previously forecasted range of between $9.00 and $9.70.

Shopper visits were O.K. to gain 2.4% in the last three months ended November 2, with a 10.8% jump in digital sales being also detected. This means that consumers still love shopping in Target, and so the root cause of solving trouble with earnings lies in price policy and may be logistics. "We encountered some unique challenges and cost pressures that impacted our bottom-line performance," Target CEO Brian Cornell said. He mentioned a three-day strike of U.S. dock workers and port operators in early October to partially shut down shipping on the East Coast and Gulf Coast, so that Target had to carry additional costs to reroute some shipments before the key season.

We think this promises the transitory nature of unearned profits, with Target share price to recover sooner than later. Yet, the stock may first come through re-testing of a below $120 area, plus potentially 3 to 6 more months wait for renewal of the crowd's enthusiasm, before coming back to $150+ and then targeting $180+ again.

TGT

Rafael Quintana Martinez

20.11.2024

ApeCoin Is Losing Momentum

ApeCoin (APE) is up by 2.7% this week, trading at $1.1000, lagging behind Bitcoin’s 4.7% rise to $93,340 and the broader altcoin market, where some tokens are surging by 10-20%. APE's subdued performance comes after a significant 140% rally in mid-October, spurred by Yuga Labs’ announcement of the ApeChain launch. This rally prompted profit-taking by large holders, leaving APE still 54% above pre-announcement levels, compared to Bitcoin’s 36% gain in the same period.

Momentum appears to be fading for APE. However, from a technical perspective, prices remain above the key support at $1.000 and are holding steady near the middle of the ascending channel at $1.100. While this positioning typically signals potential for further upside, the market action suggests sideways consolidation rather than a decisive upward move.

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