What's Behind the Painted Patterns of Easter Eggs?
Can you believe it's time for Easter already?! Where has the time gone? The two decades of April were spent completely for a set of emotional whipsaws in global markets. Easter baskets are one of my favourite childhood memories. However, this time I dare not to say is my Easter basket of assets full or empty of eggs. More precisely, there are a lot of various and coloured eggs, and even not all of my eggs are now in one basket, as there are big techs and consumer stocks, currencies and gold among them. But it is still unclear what particular size of profit, small or big, is hidden behind their painted patterns. They are only waiting to be cracked some later, but it is now difficult to predict where the delicious chocolate surprises would be hidden to pick them up already in May. Or, at least, within two or three months.
I have no doubt that each kind of fillings from these asset eggs will be tasty at some moment well before the end of the year, but dramatic price swings due to tariff battle fears have queered the pitch for investing minds in the short-term. What is clear right now is only that Gold is hitting records, already above $3,350, thanks to likely plans to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chief to cut US Dollar's interest rates faster. But possible stabilisation factors, like an Ukraine peace deal, originally designed in Washington and then transiting through Paris yesterday night, if successful, would cause a strong pullback for precious metals. If so, I prefer to take some profit from my Gold positioning to buy it lower and later again.
Besides, some major rotation from growth to value stocks happened on Wall Street, with the Consumer Staples select sector fund (XLP) adding nearly 3.5% in the course of the last 5 working days since April 10, even though the tech segment lost the most on average. But even here, things are not so clear. Businesses offering everyday consumer goods are seen as a hedge against recession risks and trade restrictions, but the upcoming US negotiations with Japan, and then other rivals, could shape things up to a risk-on mood. Consumer staples have recovered as if they never fell, but the total return on these assets is small, so they are good non-risky eggs, but not golden ones in perspective. The XLP index climbing from its current 82 points to 85 or slightly higher can be considered a done deal, but is that good money for an active investor like me? And the giant AI technologies which seem rotten eggs now could skyrocket at any moment, given their attractively low prices, to be quickly transformed into the class one eggs again.
Just look at how low the giant techs are now, and how much higher the upside potential is for the Technology Select fund (XLK), which includes all of my favourite stocks like Broadcom (AVGO), Google, Dell or the flagship NVIDIA, of course. Tech stocks don't guarantee anything, but they do hint at an average rise in the XLK index linked to them from current levels below 195 to 240, which would implicitly mean almost 25% additional profit. Once this basket of tech eggs recovers to its high value of the beginning of the year, of course. However, the mere lack of desire to continue the tech sale before the long weekend, and the preference for moderate crowd buying instead, gives a good sign.
There are also some very strange single eggs that can lie around for a long time and then turn out to be completely chocolate when ripen. I am talking about Eli Lilly (LLY), as an example, which I held throughout its lasting rollback down, but just yesterday this asset suddenly soared by 13%, from the $750 area to $850, promising to fly much higher, on news of a successful trial of Eli Lilly's new experimental pill for weight loss and against diabetes, although previously only injections medicine had a comparable effect. Eli Lilly's rival Novo Nordisk continues to fall with its Ozempic, while LLY shines brighter than ever, emerging as another off-basket golden egg in its own light.
I describe all this mainly to make a basic and probably trivial conclusion of mine that all those asset eggs I have ever bought to fill my baskets now deserve to remain inside intact and untouched. And who am I to choose which of them will ultimately become golden or more expensive than others, and which can simply be eaten with salt and bread some later? Perhaps, except for a couple of golden ones, which are actually very expensive Gold well above $3,300 per ounce, and also a couple of consumer staples eggs, which I am going to sell for the well-being and joy of my family right at the moment.
But I will hide the rest of the eggs back in their appropriate baskets to put them in a cold cellar until, I don't know, maybe even until Christmas, but looking in there throughout the year, week after week, to see if any of eggs have already become golden, so that it can be sold profitably at a proper time. Of course, I will not sell my Ripple in the near future, which I only bought a little over a week ago, and it is only just starting to grow well. And I will consider buying soon, perhaps, some other tokens from the crypto world too.
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