AIR

While Boeing (BA) stock is sinking well below $150 (nearly 43% down year-to-date), on damaged demand because of continuous safety investigations and strike impact, Airbus (AIR) is also on a stage of an almost 25% share price correction from its peaking values of March around €170. However, it has lost only less than 7% since the beginning of 2024 and won an enormous number of new orders when its major rival lost its chances. I already depicted all the details of Airbus 20% rally from January to March against Boeing's door plug fall and more failures. It actually began at almost the same, and even somewhat higher, price area than the Airbus attitude on charts. So, I personally bet again on Airbus' readiness to take-off once again very soon.

A more than +27% upside space for Airbus is in the picture you can see below. I saved it in the middle of the week, particularly this Wednesday's night, when Reuters reported from Paris that Airbus deliveries fell 9% to 50 planes fully finished in September vs the same month in 2024, but managed to book fresh demand for 235 jets. Well, Airbus shares already gained by nearly 2.5% for the next two days, including today, but 25% of free space is still here to go in the upward direction.

The total deliveries by Airbus so far are 497 jetliners, which is up 2% from 488 during a 9-month period in 2023. So, everything is O.K. for me. The manufacturer is going on slowly but safely, which is the most important thing when its rival is disgraced. Citing Reuters, Airbus is just "facing a sprint towards the finish line in the traditionally busy fourth quarter", when targeting 770 deliveries for the full year after reducing its former goal of 800 in summer. But this was not due to any demand problems, only shortages of engines and other parts were blamed. This may decrease the incoming money flow to Airbus in the current year, yet its assembly shops would have to deliver 273 aircrafts before Christmas to meet the target.

The number would be 11% up from Q4 2023, which is an argument number one in favour of the future rally in Airbus stock. It will happen at least on expectations the goal would be complete. An even more important argument number two is collecting excessive demand in the form of new orders for the whole next decade. The demand collection is already overheated, as for me, after Airbus confirmed it won orders for a total of 667 jets, including that 235 in September, or 648 after cancellations. Again, Airbus does not publish any target for orders, but Reuters cited "industry sources" saying Airbus is "informally aiming for about 1,100 orders". A huge amount suggests that Airbus will earn even more than many expected before, while Boeing could be written off as scrap, suffering a clear lack of customers in this small world.