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- Short-Term Buy Opportunities in Oil Futures
Short-Term Buy Opportunities in Oil Futures
Brent crude price plummeted by 5.7% on November 7-8, from the area above $85 to $80.26 per barrel. The move was not performed all out of the blue, of course, yet it looks overdone for me, as there was a lack of fundamentals under the fall to 3-1/2 month lows.
Demand concerns increased after mixed Chinese export data, as it contracted by 6.4% YoY in October, which was faster than many may fear. This led to the worst trade surplus in 17 months for this very important country for global manufacturing activity. At the same time, it rather looks as a premature panic, as Chinese imports expanded by 3.0%. After all, its import needs that determine the purchase of energies and other raw materials.
Again, the impact of lower crude oil volume sold reportedly led Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Saudi Aramco to a 23% decline in its Q3 net profit, which may push oil producers to refrain from further production cuts. Yet, these speculations rather look like rumours based on a thought of somebody, than real plans of the OPEC and its allies.
Worries over U.S. demand aggravated following data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) late November 7, as it showed inventories surging almost by 12 million barrels in one week, compared to consensus expectations for a decrease of 300,000 barrels. Yet, it is probably a temporary effect ahead of official U.S. inventory data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), as its nearest release has been postponed until November 13.
I don't feel that the whole sum of circumstances would define any new trend on fuel markets. So, my personal choice is to buy occasional dips on Brent crude oil futures, with the initial price target at $85 per barrel. Betting on technically false breaks usually works on big markets, from a statistical point of view. So, I even think to add more to a buy position if the price would dive $2-3 below $80.
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