DX

The Greenback is set for the third consecutive month of growth, as the U.S. Dollar index to commonly weigh the world's major reserve currency against six others already climbed from nearly 100.5 on last day of September to above 107 by mid-December. The European Central Bank's and the Bank of Canada's decisions to lower interest rates by a quarter-point to 3.00% and by a half-point to 3.25%, correspondingly, certainly made a definite contribution to the U.S. Dollar rally, as well as the European Central Bank head's notice that some policy-setters had proposed a larger, 0.50% cut, with the door clearly opened for further cuts. China's stimulus measures agenda against the country's deflationary flags and global trade war ghosts taking shape under incoming president Donald Trump also work beautifully to the advantage of the U.S. currency dominance. The downside economic risks in the Eurozone and some other regions are here. However, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cut-now-and-then-wait signals presumably have played a central role in further drop in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, as well as a sharp increase in USDJPY.

The U.S. Dollar-nominated borrowing costs are still higher, with futures traders on CME pricing a more than 95% chance of decreasing the Fed's target range by 0.25% to 4.25%-4.50% next Wednesday, December 18, but only a 20.7% chance of another one dovish step at the end of January. March 19 March could be the next sticking point for further small rate cuts, yet that cannot be taken for granted, as only 60% are ready to bet on this rate cut scenario for the first half of 2025, according to CME's FedWatch tool. As an example, San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly, represented this typical mind-set this week by saying that she was "comfortable" with possible cutting rates in December, but having "a more thoughtful and cautious approach" on further reductions. Partial and normally intraday retracements above 1.05 in EURUSD due to a profit-taking activity before the end of the week should not lead anyone astray about the general direction on the foreign exchange market.

Such episodes of pointless price movements are seemingly reminiscent of a rather controversial initial response of the crowd of traders to the U.S. non-farm payrolls on the first Friday of December. The latest slice of the U.S. labour data, including 227,000 new jobs after suddenly declining to 36,000 a month ago, and a 0.4% average hourly wages surplus in November to lead to a stable 4.0% growth of personal earnings YoY, are solid pro-inflationary arguments to stop the Fed's policy makers from drastic steps. A small nominally rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2%, with a dip fear of being too late to prevent sliding into recession in the future, are the only drivers for the Fed to keep cutting rates. Therefore, the spike in EURUSD to nearly 1.0630 on the labour data set of December 6 was only a good excuse for selling this uptick to pressure the single currency below 1.0550 during the same trading session and then to drop to the area around 1.0450 in the next few days.

We suppose the market would deal in a similar way with some current upticks above 1.05. Thus, the next target range for EURUSD looks to be between the annual low of 1.0332 and 1.0375, with a retest below 1.25 as a basic scenario for GBPUSD. More annual dips for the Aussie and Kiwi, as well as fresh highs above 1.45 in USDCAD, are widely expected by year-end.