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23.02.2023
Brent Is Seen to Recover as it Dives to $80

Oil prices have been in a downtrend since March 2022. Brent crude prices have been descending since then and approaching the lows of the descending channel. However, an important support level at $80 has not been broken in the last 2 months, as prices rebounded every time they approach this margin. If look at the RSI with a period of 14 on H4 chart, we may see that Brent crude is clearly oversold. It seems prices are forming a rebound pattern from the $80 per barrel level. Technically, it might be a good entry point for a long position. Considering that there are no reversal signals at the moment, it would be better to wait for the price to enter the range of $78-80 per barrel to receive such a signal. The target price is at $88. If the support of $78 is broken through, then the price is likely to continue down towards $65 per barrel.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

B
Going Short for Boeing Still a Reasonable Strategy

Shares of Boeing plunged by 7.55% from $185+ levels to $172 after the legendary aircraft manufacturer failed perform previously planned plane deliveries to China as Beijing's aviation authorities claimed to halt the shipment due to the need of issuing additional certification. The documents are related to the batteries in cockpit voice recorders on all Boeing models, including the 787 and long-suffering 737 Max, which has been thoroughly checked after a series of crash incidents. The industry giant even said it may impact its financials, including potentially negative cash flow in the current quarter.

Chinese market is critical for Boeing. The company also expects that the number of 787 wide-body Dreamliner deliveries would be "similar to those in the first quarter", suggesting "no significant improvement" in the short term. Supply-chain constraints for the 787 model are here as well, while the quarterly margins in the defence segment are expected to be negative.

I've looked into this before, several times since January, and so I feel short selling positioning is still a reasonable strategy for Boeing shares. Any upticks or price rebounds proved to be short-lived over the past few months. Thus, a $125 to $135 target range could be considered as a legitimate objective, as these prices were detected in summer and fall of 2023. Moreover, reaching lows around $150 or maybe $153 to $155 is on the table in early June, as weakening fundamentals are clearly in favour of holding sell positions for longer.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
NEO May Recover to $17.50

Neo (NEO) rose by 1.5% to $15.00 this week. The token retreated after hitting $16.51 on Monday, driven by news of a potential swift approval of spot Ethereum ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Indeed, the SEC approved eight applications on May 23. While ETF issuers still need the SEC to finalize their registration statements, which could take some time, the initial clearance has been granted. This news led to a rollback in crypto asset prices, including NEO. However, the token managed to hold above the support level at $15.00, buoyed by its uptrend support. This resilience could be sufficient for NEO to recover and reach $17.50.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Bored Apes are Pulling APE Down

ApeCoin (APE) is up by 8.0% to $1.274 this week, outpacing Bitcoin's (BTC) 5.0% increase. Despite this, there are signs of weakness in ApeCoin's rally. The token experienced a significant drop of 51% in the first half of April and has struggled to recover since then. It has fallen out of the uptrend that began on October 9, 2023, and has been trading sideways within the $1.150 to $1.300 range, indicating a potential continuation within this range.

A major factor impacting ApeCoin's performance is the sharp decline in the value of Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) NFTs, which have dropped by 91%. This substantial decline has significantly hampered ApeCoin's upside potential. Given the current situation, ApeCoin might tumble to its previous lows around $1.000 if the downward pressure continues.

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NVIDIA Has Cracked a $1000 Barrier

The AI (artificial intelligence) rally flagman flew into the next sky layer. Its share price quickly topped a $1000 per share barrier in the extended trading after Wall St closed on May 22 following its 5.6-fold growth in profit numbers YoY. The world's largest GPUs (graphic processor units) chipmaker released its EPS (earnings per share) at $6.12 in the quarter ended in April on sales of $26.04 billion, compared to $1.09 per share on sales of $7.19 billion in the same period of 2023. Both top and bottom lines clearly exceeded consensus estimates for EPS of $5.6 a share on revenue of $24.65 billion. The contrast between brave expectations and even more oversized reality indications was stark enough for the stock to soar by more than 6%, which seems to become the lowest possible reward for a very strong report.

The forward guidance provided by the company was also bright and even brighter. It projected the current quarter's revenue at $28 billion, plus or minus 2%, while the market analyst pool on Reuters expected $26.66 billion on average. NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang commented that its newest Blackwell AI chips line-up would allow additional production increase. Chief financial officer Colette Kress also added that demand for most effective Blackwell chips is going to "exceed supply well into next year". NVIDIA is now dominating 80% of the global segment for AI task relevant chips. Its sales for the data centres added 427% YoY to $22.6 billion, which reflects "higher shipments of the NVIDIA Hopper GPU computing platform" to train and inference with large language models and recommendation engines based on generative AI features, according to the company's statement.

One of its largest customers, Amazon, recently said it "has not halted" any NVIDIA chip orders. Another giant purchaser is Meta Platforms, which increased the midpoint of its 2024 capital expenditure forecast by nearly $4 billion. It is very difficult to try to replace NVIDIA's chips due to the high performance technology behind them. A 10-for-1 stock split will happen soon (starting on June 7) to attract even more investors with small and middle size of capital, thanks to lower cost of a share. NVIDIA showed its gross margin at 79% vs 77% on consensus forecast, while its closest peer AMD reported 52%. However, AMD share price added a couple percentage points as well.

The Wall St analysts' average 12-month price target immediately moved to $1040 overnight, and this is probably far from ultimate limits for this year. More upside moves in NVIDIA are highly likely. They may also support a bullish rally in other giant tech companies, including Microsoft, Google and Broadcom. Any leap in the market value of these flagship businesses may serve as an additional driver of stability for the overall bullish market mood.

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