RBA and ADP Now Playing for Bulls
Global equities scored additional support this week with interest rate policy hints from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Although the RBA decided to keep its key official borrowing cost level unchanged at 3.60%, also containing some hawkish notes in afterward comments, markets are betting on slashing Australian interest rates later in November. The RBA said recent inflation gauges pointed moderately higher than it was previously expected, so that the economy does not require emergency support, but a lasting recovery in national business activity may need regulatory help in the future. Australian central bankers are more inclined to pause, then wait and see after assessing the further dynamic, in clear contrast with U.S. Federal Reserve's signalling that its monetary policy needs to be eased before the end of the year, following the already made 0.25% rate cut move on September 17. This built a temporary divergence between Australian and U.S. monetary paths to work in favour of holding neutral AUDUSD positions exactly at the moment when the Greenback becomes weaker against Gold futures, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan and some European rivals. However, lower Dollar quotes are as good for stock prices on Wall Street as an inevitability of lower interest rates at various countries and continents, because lower rates make credit money more accessible for investing those money in enhancing stock portfolios, while lower Dollar as the unit of measurement for U.S. stock assets also promise to make stocks more expensive. Indeed, all driving stocks of the global digital industry, be it Google or Nvidia as the first examples just now coming on mind, will be worth excessively 10% if the USD as their price's unit loses the same 10% due to repeating sell-offs of the US Dollar as a funding currency for shares like Google, Nvidia and many others. We see obvious proof of this in a so fast pick-up of the broad S&P 500 index price from intraday lows around 6,630 this Wednesday, October 1, following persistently upside trend in precious metals and still weakening Dollar. Nvidia has already shown its freshest all-time high of around $187.30 on this development only one day before.
Meanwhile, the crowd's attention is turning to the possible publication of September’s nonfarm payrolls, scheduled on October 3. Cooling jobs picture has formed exactly a major focus for the Federal Reserve's projections two weeks ago. Therefore, further job weakness may be a long-playing positive factor for converting even more money into U.S. equities. Today's report by the U.S. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) service played on the same bullish side for Wall Street after showing the biggest private nonfarm payroll drop in 2.5 years. American businesses altogether shed a seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs instead of adding 45,000 jobs in average expert forecasts.
Even though ADP data doesn't really correlate with official Nonfarm payrolls from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), its directional messages of poorer steam of U.S. economy is so clear, and poorer jobs means more investors-friendly Fed policy moves to normalise jobs, and both factors may only contribute into ever-growing Wall St sentiment.
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