How to Benefit From the Downturn: Shopify
The share price of this large e-commerce software platform climbed nearly 80% from below $50 in April 2023 to the latest two-year high above $90 on February 12, 2024. However, the stock lost 13.4% of its re-achieved market value during the next regular trading session on Wall Street, even though its quarterly numbers beat consensus expectations in both profit and sales lines.
The revenue was 23.6% up YoY to reach $2.14 billion versus analyst pool average estimates at $2.07 billion (exceeding by 3.3%) and to generate EPS (equity per share) of $0.34 against analyst estimates of $0.30. Shopify's revenue was $1.38 billion in Q4 2021, and so we can see a big progress here. Its merchant base showed a 35% rise outside North America. Free cash flow came to $446 million, up 61.6% compared to Q3 and 80% YoY. The business of Shopify also continued to improve its profit compared to a drop in 2022 to negative or just very close to zero values, which later was considered by the market crowd as a temporary weakness. It seems like this concept was mostly confirmed by the overwhelming results of 2023. "2023 was an incredible year for both Shopify and our merchants. Our strong Q4 and annual results are a powerful testament to the progress we have made building fast, reliable, and unified software for merchants of all sizes", the company's president Harley Finkelstein said during the conference call after the report.
Around $1 in every $5 globally spent on retail purchases occurs in the digital orders segment, giving a larger room to grow. Yet, the crowd's concern about the company's forward guidance caught more investors thinking of less rapid margin growth in 2024. The business model of Shopify could give a better amount of income from reinvesting cash than its CEOs dared to announce. They projected Q1 revenue growth prospects "in the low 20s" while showing commitment to use more AI capacities in product offering to customers, yet without too much specifics on the rest of 2024. Operating expenses were projected "to rise at a low tens percentage rate" compared to Q4, "due to marketing and employee-related costs". Concerning the influence of the pricing change, no particular numbers were offered to the public, there was only the talk of some "impact" of updated pricing "to be felt in the second half of the year". Those key points for sceptics led to a mix of partial frustration.
Current signs of business acceleration might be not enough to extend the rally, while stock diving to fresh dips may inspire bullish dreamers for acting more resolutely at lower price levels. Of course, it would rather happen after the price adjustment dust settles a bit more. From a technical standpoint, the price area between $65 and $70 already looks very attractive to pick up the stock, as price levels just above $70 served as a good support before and after Christmas, or one could say "in the instant before" the latest stage of rally started.
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