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01.02.2023
Low Risk Purchases in the Bearish Market: Salesforce

Salesforce is a leader of the CRM systems segment. Its stocks are trading at 47% off their peaks. The company continues to post strong business growth despite being in the market for a long time. It has strong financials and abilities to reward its investors. The last quarter revenue reported by Salesforce rose by 14% year-on-year to $7.8 billion, while its operational margin grew by 290 basis points to 22.7%. This is quite impressive as the company suffered because the strong Dollar undermined its revenues outside the U.S. The company’s management has also approved a buy-back program for $1.7 billion.

Management estimates the company will increase its operational margin to 25% in the next couple of years and boost its revenues to $31 billion during this fiscal year, or by 17%. Salesforce announced the cut of 10% of its staff in order to increase profitability. This is quite a common strategy in the tech sector to keep business expansion going.

The company is also active in the M&A market. The last of its acquisitions is the Slack platform that has posted revenues up by 46% during the reporting quarter. Thus, investors may have a wide variety of outstanding products as they buy CRM stocks.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

The Soda Giant Is Sparkling and Resilient To Headwinds

PepsiCo reported quite a bit better figures than what the market consensus expected for the first quarter. The soft drinks and snacks giant delivered $1.61 of EPS (equity per share) in the Q1 2024 against $1.52 in Wall Street analyst pool estimates. Despite this was less than 80% of a $2.04 average income during the previous three quarters of 2023, the situation with a poorer start from January to March is very ordinary. It is repeated year after year. Instead, the focus is usually shifted to a year-on-year comparison, particularly with Q1 2023 and Q1 2022 results, and such a fair comparative study gives an unbiased observer a 7.3% and a 24.8% growth from reference plans, which were calculated one and two years ago, respectively.

The company's sales amounted to $18.25 billion vs $17.85 in Q1 2023 and $16.2 in Q1 2022, a 41.7% above the pre-pandemic record of $12.88 for the first quarters. In fact, Q1 2024 was the best in any financial aspect, including profit margins, among all initial quarters ever for the business of PepsiCo. Because of smart regional diversification, international demand for most of its sodas and snacks (Cheetos, Doritos etc), including Europe, Asia Pacific and China, served as a reliable driver for growth even though a slowdown in North America took place. Globally distributed business is now about 40% from the whole revenue of PepsiCo. New items like its Celsius energy drink flavored and Quaker instant oats help further global expansion, while Quaker Foods sales in North America lost 24% due to a sudden product recalling there because of a potential salmonella contamination risk. The company's financials are moving forward showing a very good pace, despite all these odds and temporary headwinds.

"We've had three years of ... massive consumer inflation and that has to be absorbed and I think the cumulative impact of that puts a bit of strain on the consumer. But we expect that to abate as time goes on," PepsiCo CFO Jamie Caulfield commented on the results. PepsiCo's organic volume sold is 2% lower YoY, against a higher 4% drop in Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022, yet the company got better income despite a rather reasonable price increase of nearly 5% in Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023. The way how its management coped with the inflation pressure challenge, improving efficiency and return by successfully raising selling prices and competitiveness in its product line, deserves respect at least, if not immediate appreciation of the crowd.

Based on strong and growing fundamentals, an actual 2.25% decrease in PepsiCo share price seems not absolutely logical in the first five hours after the release. The only normal explanation for this effect could lie in reaching technically a 7-month ceiling after the price climbed by almost 6% already in the previous week. Combined with edging higher two slowly in terms of the S&P 500 broad market index recovery after last Friday's nervous stress and expectations of more clear overall direction from the top giants like Meta, Microsoft, Google, Apple and Amazon, the delay in further growth of successfully reported consumer businesses like PepsiCo could be justified but temporary. If so, we consider that more jumps to retest widely expected target prices within the range of $185-$195 are only a matter of time.

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Chipmakers Have Been "Dented But Not Deterred"

The generative AI (artificial intelligence) segment's darling, NVIDIA, has suddenly provided an outstanding opportunity to buy its shares on local dips below $760 at some point of a sharp technical correction last Friday, April 19. A situational sell-off in banking and energy stocks led to another round of decline in the S&P 500 broad market indicator, but only within a couple of percentage points during the day. However, when combined with a much smaller Super Micro Computer company's stock crashing by 23%, which announced its next earnings date without providing any preliminary financial results, as well as a simultaneously negative background from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, this caused a massive profit taking among NVIDIA shareholders.

The bullish camp could be a little tired from the lasting AI rally, yet a more than 20% price discount compared to the all-time highs at $974 in March, immediately sparked a wave of renewed optimism. As a first result, NVIDIA price added more than 5% after the weekend and surfaced above $800 per share. Growing, and then easing geopolitical concerns over the Israeli-Arabian conflict also contributed to this volatility on Wall Street. One may guess that ship has sailed, yet NVIDIA stock is still trading with a pretty large discount, which makes it an attractive speculative object.

Few private investors in this market may dare to expect a re-test of substantially deeper lows for NVIDIA at $600, while chances of exceeding $1,000 per share is still being considered by all major investment houses that continue to maintain their Buy ratings for the absolute world leader in graphics chip manufacturing, without even changing it to Hold or Overbought. We adhere to exactly this point of view, feeling NVIDIA and some of its satellite chip stocks, including AMD, as the best group of assets to pick up, using each and any lower price opportunity.

A shift change, starting from May and ending in mid-summer, is another possible scenario for NVIDIA and other semiconductor stocks, but only to extend these buying chances. GPU (graphic processing units) shortages may ease to some extent during the product transitional period from NVIDIA's "old" (2022) and H100-based Hopper generation of microarchitecture to the new one on the newest Blackwell chip series. "As Blackwell ramps, starting in August, it is likely to be in short supply for several quarters," Morgan Stanley client's note says. “This still leaves Hopper doing some heavy lifting through early 2025 as we still see the majority of revenue from Hopper until next year, and there is, of course, some anxiety about a Blackwell pause... but we simply are not hearing about that right now, as our contacts assure us that Hopper demand continues to grow and that the company can manage the transition to Blackwell effectively,” the reputable group added.

Meanwhile, the Bank of America said semiconductor stocks have been "dented but not deterred", as “we are only in quarter 3 of what is usually an average 10 quarter upcycle”. “We continue to believe some semis will face a headwind until June/July when it could become apparent estimates are about to go up again and we believe this is a buying opportunity for our buy-rated names,” Citigroup echoed. If so, the last but not the least is simply that nobody abolished the principle of doing things which most billionaire funds advised the crowd to do. We believe that buying dips in NVIDIA could make investing portfolios even stronger.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
BAT Continues to Struggle Moving to $0.300

Basic Attention Token (BAT) has gained 2.7% to $0.266 this week, inching closer to its target of $0.300. In the previous week, BAT struggled to regain ground above the $0.250 support level following a significant 36% decline to $0.202. The token faced six consecutive days of trading below this support, indicating a potential further decline. However, it managed to stage a recovery last Saturday. Collaborations with Dow Jones Media, Quant, Cheddar, and other entities may offer some support to prices, although their impact is heavily influenced by market conditions. With Bitcoin (BTC) staging a fragile recovery from $60,000, BAT's upward momentum may falter if it fails to swiftly breach the $0.300 resistance level.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Synthetix is Trying to Recover

Synthetix (SNX) is adding 3.2% to $3.150 this week It is struggling to hold above its crucial support at $3.000 per token after a huge 49% slump in the first half of April. This support is fundamental for the token to recover towards $4.000. The recovery of Bitcoin (BTC) prices helps the token. The Synthetix Community Governance Call in late April will discuss project updates, staking rates, which could also support token prices.

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