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14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

10.01.2025
Dollar Strength Is a Given

The very first slice of statistical data on business activity from the United States this year reaffirmed an almost clear irrelevance and even potential hurtfulness of any immediate steps towards further lowering interest rates on U.S. Dollar-nominated loans from a purely economic point of view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), based on polls compiled from executives in over 400 industrial companies in late December, came out at 49.3 points vs 48.4 a month ago and 48.2 in average analyst estimates. This showed that a slowdown was occurring at a slower or even insignificant pace, keeping inflation risks on the table, especially when the price component increased from 50.3 to 52.5 with a similar rate of increase in new orders. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI came out at 54.1 on Tuesday, compared to 53.5 in analyst polls and 52.1 a month ago, with a contribution of business activity components even jumped to a surprising 58.2 against declining from 57.2 in November to only 53.7 in December.

In other words, the economy is not cooling, and is rather in a positive acceleration, which in turn may lead to a recovery in wage rises and therefore to higher demand pressure, which may be reflected soon in higher producer purchase and output prices. Doubts of the major U.S. financial regulator are understandable at this point after its triple rate cut from 5.5% to 4.5% in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will now pay closer attention not only to consumer inflation measures, but also to producer prices (PPI), which is just going to be released on coming Tuesday, January 14. And so, this will become the next reference point in the further U.S. Dollar’s trajectory. The Greenback index (DX) is picking up steam since reaching a new record high for the last two years at 109.35, with its temporary pullbacks being limited by a 107.50 support area that previously served as a strong multi-month technical resistance.

In this context, the British Pound (GBPUSD) updated its lows since November 2023 to touch 1.2237 on January 9, EURUSD feels quite comfortable within a range between 1.02 and 1.0450, which corresponds to its 2-year bottom, and having a bias towards a possible further decline. The Aussie (AUDUSD) is one-step away from taking the path for a breakthrough to a quite unknown territory of its 5-year lows that were last time recorded when the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 happened.

A varying extent of the American Dollar strength is surely data dependent as the market community is eagerly waiting for the U.S. job data later today. The average expectations on new Nonfarm Payrolls is just a bit above 150,000 vs 227,000 in early December 2024 and nearly 160,000 for the previous four months on average. However, any value close to 150,000, plus or minus 20,000, or any higher number, may be considered as another positive sign for the Greenback, following the ADP national employment report which contained only 122,000 on Wednesday. The oppressive nature of average hourly wage in its dynamics, +0.4% each time from September to December, also matters.

The protective quality of investing more funds into the U.S. Dollar and U.S. bonds against tariff threats is switched on anyway, based on more than a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates on pause at its January 29 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials never go against a well-established market consensus, when it is almost unanimous, for not to rock the boat of relative market trend stability. The central bankers' reluctance to shift the Fed fund rates lower before mid-March, if not early May, continues to play in favour of short-term speculative transactions on the foreign exchange market, bearing in mind all the listed currency instruments. Some intraday volatility may take place, especially in the case of appearing an abnormal two-digit non-farm value, but not a change in overall direction.

14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

23.01.2025
Ontology Is Sliding Towards $0.2000

Ontology (ONT) is down 2.3% this week, trading at $0.2176, in line with the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) has declined 2.0% to $101,632. While the new U.S. administration has made some strides toward fairer crypto regulation, Donald Trump has remained silent on the highly anticipated issue of adding Bitcoin to U.S. federal reserves.

Market speculation is rampant, with figures like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggesting Bitcoin could surge to $700,000 per coin if sovereign wealth funds begin accumulating. Other forecasts predict Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end. While such projections could foster optimism, the lack of decisive action or announcements regarding U.S. crypto reserves is weighing heavily on the market.

For Ontology, the situation remains bearish. Having breached the critical support at $0.2500 last week, the token is now approaching the $0.2000 level. A failure to provide clear evidence or statements about U.S. federal crypto reserve plans could see ONT fall even further, breaching the $0.2000 mark and deepening its losses.

Ignoring Temporary Uncertainties: Uber

The pandemic and the recent market correction of tech stocks pushed Uber stock prices below the IPO level. And now they are recovering. Wall Street analysts believe the company is benefiting from high borrowing costs as Uber peers cannot afford lower prices in this lower-margin business without the risk of losses. Thus, Uber could continue to increase its market share.

The company reported revenues up by 29% to $8.8 billion in the Q1 2023. EBITDA was reported at $761 million, beating management’s expectations of $660-700 million. The company works as a taxi and delivery service that was affected by the pandemic differently. The delivery services segment has reported 20.6% up in the Q1 2023, but the EBITDA of it is at $288 million or 1.9% of the revenues compared to $30 million and 0.2% a year ago.

Uber has a lot to do to increase its margins, but the leading position in the business allows the company to weather temporary difficulties of the global macroeconomic environment. So, investors are advised to consider this stock as part of their investment portfolio.

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Ignoring Temporary Uncertainties: Zillow

Zillow is the largest real estate market place in the United States. Its stocks are trading with 77% discount to their peak prices that were recorded in 2021. Correction of tech stocks and real estate market slowdown affected by high interest rates have a negative impact on Zillow stock prices. However, Zillow has the online business with high margins that is set to rebound at the appropriate moment.

Despite lower numbers of transactions, the company has reported that its internet traffic is mostly unchanged. It could indicate that Americans are seeking to buy houses that may eventually turn into real purchase once interest rates go down, or prices tumble.

Anybody who wants to buy a house in America will likely find in on one of the Zillow websites. The company reported 10.5 billion views during 2023, which was up by 3% YoY. The primary source of the revenues are now commissions, but the management is working to introduce mortgages. The company has other opportunities to monetize its business. Zillow offers insurance, renovation services, moving services, etc. Thus, its stocks remain promising in the long run.

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Ignoring Temporary Uncertainties: Datadog

Datadog is a service for monitoring internal IT infrastructure and services through the SaaS-based analytical platform. Its stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices. So, investors have a rare opportunity to buy its stocks at a significant discount during overall market correction. It is worthwhile to mention that Datadog stock prices were continuously rising after the IPO, and rose significantly over the past two months amid the AI hype. Nonetheless, they have more upside potential at the moment.

The company is demonstrating an impressive revenue pace as it reported Q1 2023 revenues up by 33% YoY to $481.7 million, beating Wall Street forecast by $70 million. Its client base is expanding rapidly, as the company reported 25,500 clients vs 19,800 a year ago. About 81% of existing clients are using at least two services, while 43% pay for 4+ services. There were only 35% of clients who paid for 4+ services a year ago.

The management is expecting revenues to rise by 25% to $2.1 billion in 2023, which is quite impressive compared to other tech companies that are struggling to deliver significant revenue growth compared to the pandemic period. In other words, Datadog stock deserve a place in the long-term investment portfolio.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
The Lonnie is Rushing to New Records

An important support level was broken at 1.33 for the USDCAD. The next key support level, which is now my target, is located at 1.3050. The 1.33 level was confirmed to be strong in July 2022, while 1.3050 has been a historically strong support level since June 2021. It was proven to be a strong one even in 2009 and 2004. Thus, I am considering opening new short positions below 1.33. To avoid unnecessary risks, I will place a stop loss order above this level.

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