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14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

10.01.2025
Dollar Strength Is a Given

The very first slice of statistical data on business activity from the United States this year reaffirmed an almost clear irrelevance and even potential hurtfulness of any immediate steps towards further lowering interest rates on U.S. Dollar-nominated loans from a purely economic point of view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), based on polls compiled from executives in over 400 industrial companies in late December, came out at 49.3 points vs 48.4 a month ago and 48.2 in average analyst estimates. This showed that a slowdown was occurring at a slower or even insignificant pace, keeping inflation risks on the table, especially when the price component increased from 50.3 to 52.5 with a similar rate of increase in new orders. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI came out at 54.1 on Tuesday, compared to 53.5 in analyst polls and 52.1 a month ago, with a contribution of business activity components even jumped to a surprising 58.2 against declining from 57.2 in November to only 53.7 in December.

In other words, the economy is not cooling, and is rather in a positive acceleration, which in turn may lead to a recovery in wage rises and therefore to higher demand pressure, which may be reflected soon in higher producer purchase and output prices. Doubts of the major U.S. financial regulator are understandable at this point after its triple rate cut from 5.5% to 4.5% in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will now pay closer attention not only to consumer inflation measures, but also to producer prices (PPI), which is just going to be released on coming Tuesday, January 14. And so, this will become the next reference point in the further U.S. Dollar’s trajectory. The Greenback index (DX) is picking up steam since reaching a new record high for the last two years at 109.35, with its temporary pullbacks being limited by a 107.50 support area that previously served as a strong multi-month technical resistance.

In this context, the British Pound (GBPUSD) updated its lows since November 2023 to touch 1.2237 on January 9, EURUSD feels quite comfortable within a range between 1.02 and 1.0450, which corresponds to its 2-year bottom, and having a bias towards a possible further decline. The Aussie (AUDUSD) is one-step away from taking the path for a breakthrough to a quite unknown territory of its 5-year lows that were last time recorded when the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 happened.

A varying extent of the American Dollar strength is surely data dependent as the market community is eagerly waiting for the U.S. job data later today. The average expectations on new Nonfarm Payrolls is just a bit above 150,000 vs 227,000 in early December 2024 and nearly 160,000 for the previous four months on average. However, any value close to 150,000, plus or minus 20,000, or any higher number, may be considered as another positive sign for the Greenback, following the ADP national employment report which contained only 122,000 on Wednesday. The oppressive nature of average hourly wage in its dynamics, +0.4% each time from September to December, also matters.

The protective quality of investing more funds into the U.S. Dollar and U.S. bonds against tariff threats is switched on anyway, based on more than a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates on pause at its January 29 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials never go against a well-established market consensus, when it is almost unanimous, for not to rock the boat of relative market trend stability. The central bankers' reluctance to shift the Fed fund rates lower before mid-March, if not early May, continues to play in favour of short-term speculative transactions on the foreign exchange market, bearing in mind all the listed currency instruments. Some intraday volatility may take place, especially in the case of appearing an abnormal two-digit non-farm value, but not a change in overall direction.

23.01.2025
Ontology Is Sliding Towards $0.2000

Ontology (ONT) is down 2.3% this week, trading at $0.2176, in line with the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) has declined 2.0% to $101,632. While the new U.S. administration has made some strides toward fairer crypto regulation, Donald Trump has remained silent on the highly anticipated issue of adding Bitcoin to U.S. federal reserves.

Market speculation is rampant, with figures like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggesting Bitcoin could surge to $700,000 per coin if sovereign wealth funds begin accumulating. Other forecasts predict Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end. While such projections could foster optimism, the lack of decisive action or announcements regarding U.S. crypto reserves is weighing heavily on the market.

For Ontology, the situation remains bearish. Having breached the critical support at $0.2500 last week, the token is now approaching the $0.2000 level. A failure to provide clear evidence or statements about U.S. federal crypto reserve plans could see ONT fall even further, breaching the $0.2000 mark and deepening its losses.

14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

Young, Yet Cheap: Zuora

Zuora is the company that helps companies and individuals manage their subscription-based services. Its stocks lost about 60% during the recent correction. Stock prices recovered some losses after a publication of a strong financial report for the Q4 2022, but they have some more room to rise. The major driver for the company is that more businesses are turning to a subscription-based model, generating more clients for Zuora. Anyone can manage their subscriptions by themselves, but with the growing number of these subscriptions it would be very tricky to manage them all, especially for firms. There is no alternative in the market as Zuora is entirely focused on subscription issues offering its clients tailored services to manage their revenues and billing services.  Zuora has reported revenues up by 14% year-on-year to $103 million in Q4 2022 beating Wall Street expectations of 11% growth. The company posted that its Annual Recurring Revenues (ARR) are up by 16% year-on-year to $365 million, which is 80% of the ARR expected level by the end of 2023. Strong financial results, together with a rather small market capitalisation at $1.2 billion, makes the company attractive for large corporates that are willing to diversify their business. In other words, adding Zuora stocks to your investment portfolio at current prices looks very attractive for long-term investors.  

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Young, Yet Cheap: Lemonade

Lemonade is a new generation insurance company that targets a young audience. It stocks lost about 93% from peak prices during the past two years. Moreover, these stock prices continue to go down this year despite the rally in the tech sector. The company’s stocks lost more than 10% in 2023, ignoring inspiring financial results and strong positive guidance for 2023. The company has five primary products available in the market, including home insurance, renters’ insurance, car insurance, and pet insurance, all making cross sales even more effective. The company declares its mission as “transforming insurance from a necessary evil into a social good." The company has reported revenues up by 116% year-on-year to $88.4 million on a client base up by 27% year-on-year to 1.81 million in the Q4 2022. Lemonade is mostly reinsuring its risks, causing the insurance premium for agents to decline as the number of clients is increasing. The premium dropped from 72% in the Q4 2021 to 58% in the same period of 2022. Lemonade offers insurances on-line, which is quite valuable for its young audience. These people are growing older, having families and seeing their income rise over time. All these factors lead them to increase their interactions with financial firms, including insurance companies. Thus, targeting the Z generation could be a solid stake for future gains.  

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Young, Yet Cheap: Etsy

Etsy is an e-commerce market place for handmade and vintage items. Its stocks are now trading at 66% off their peak prices, while they were posting records during the pandemic amid booming e-commerce business and the selling of collectables online in particular.  While the world was recovering from the pandemic, revenues dropped significantly. The company reported revenues up by 12.6% year-on-year to $807 million in the last three months of 2022. Wall Street is expecting its revenues to rise only by 8% during 2023. The turnover dropped by 4% over the Q4 2022 on growing revenues from rising fees for sellers. This source of incomes could hardly be considered sustainable. The company has obtained 9.5 million extra users, which is a 51% rise compared to the Q3 2022. This is very positive for the company but revenues are still far from pandemic levels.  Large marketing costs slashed the company’s margins. The company still generates profit, but its EBITDA dropped by 290 basis points to 27.9%. Marketplace continues to be number one in the sector despite continuous efforts by some giants like Amazon to enter this niche market, without much success. Nonetheless, long positions for ETSY stocks without significant positive developments in revenues or incomes are a major risk. It is worthwhile to monitor the company as it may turn out to be a successful story.  

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How to Choose Cheap Perspective Stocks: Fastly

FSLY stocks are trading 86% off their peak prices. A famous cloud computing service provider started to experience technical troubles two years ago along with the TikTok departure, which was its crucial client. Other corporate clients were considering to stop using Fastly services at the time. Management was trying to convince clients that technical issues would soon be resolved and every effort needed would be taken to improve product reliability. Indeed, the company managed to improve clients’ sentiment in early 2023, which led to FSLY stock prices surging by over 100%. There are some key drivers for the price, including the fact that Fastly revenues are critically sensitive to the capacities reserved by its customers. This is going to generate more revenue as internet traffic continues to rise. The Dollar-Based Net Expansion rate added 23% in the Q4 2022, which is beating comparable numbers from the previous year. The company has significantly diversified its client portfolio after TikTok left in 2021, and reduced its dependency on large customers. The number of clients hit 3000 amid growing reliability of Fastly infrastructure, and decreasing maintenance costs. The company’s spending to revenues ratio is declining, while margins are growing. Fastly market cap is at $2 billion with expected revenues at $500 million in 2023. In other words, this stock looks extremely attractive and undervalued considering its perspectives and current fundamentals.   

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