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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Buying US Natural Gas to Double the Profit

It appears that U.S. Natural Gas is poised for recovery after an extended consolidation period, presenting a classic U-turn scenario. The potential for a robust rebound is evident, reminiscent of a similar situation between September 2022 and February 2023 when prices surged by 77%.

Despite an initial rise in early November to $3.65 per MMBtu, prices retraced to $2.00. Currently, the market is witnessing a rewriting of lows, and it seems that bulls have surrendered. The current levels at $1.938 per MMBtu offer an opportunity to establish long-term upside positions, with up to 30% of the designated volume considered for use. The plan is to incrementally increase positions as prices approach $1.600 per MMBtu.

The first target for this strategy is set at $3.700-3.900, with a secondary target at $4.450, where an unclosed gap is identified. The expectation is to double profits through these operations, taking advantage of the anticipated recovery in U.S. Natural Gas prices.

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Still Good Time For Casting Stones Away: Fortinet

Another California-based cybersecurity developer of firewalls, endpoint protection solutions, intrusion detection systems etc surged into the double digits this week, trying to hold its fresh 6-month peak around $73-74 per share. Yet, it supposedly has more space for extending gains beyond an all-time high of July 2023 at $81.25, if the Wall Street crowd may dare to follow other rally examples in its peer favourites like Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Zscaler (ZS). The share price of a more popular Palo Alto soared by 33% since the end of November. Price gains are approaching 40% in case of Fortinet, yet it has not jumped beyond its previous value records, in contrast to most companies of the segment.

Meanwhile, Fortinet group announced better-than-anticipated Q4 profit citing a glut of hacking incidents which pushed an increasing number of customers to spend more in order to safeguard their digital operations. Total billings reached $1.9 billion, 8.5% up YoY. An improvement in sales execution led to a 10% growth in revenue to $1.42 billion. The trend may continue with an outlook for 2024, when billings are estimated by CEOs to range from $6.4 to $6.6 billion and earnings per share (EPS) could between $1.65 and $1.70, compared to $1.64 in 2023. They forecasted the market to grow further from $150 billion in 2024 to $208 billion by 2027.

Shares of Fortinet jumped by nearly 9.5% in early pre-market trading on February 7, as an immediate response to the news. In a couple of hours the gains squeeze to 4.5% with local dips around $70 per share. The retreat followed a downgrade adjustment by HSBC holding from Hold to Reduce status, even while it also increased its cautious price target to $57 from the previous $49, both well below current levels. However, the stock's buyers may feel this price retreat as just another chance to pick it up from better levels.

41
Choosing the Right Time for Gathering Money Stones: Eli Lilly

The latest quarterly numbers of more than $630 billion-cost pill factory on February 6 were amazing and promising. Sales of Mounjaro, its popular diabetes drug, which has an approved active ingredient for weight loss, went 24% above consensus estimates, and it is still reportedly in short supply. One more sister drug Zepbound surpassed market expectations by nearly 36%. Besides, Eli Lilly provided the crowd with a very bright guidance for 2024, when its CEOs bravely projected 4% increase in total revenue to the average level of expert forecast range.

That's all going on after increasing total revenue by 45% over 5 years, while earnings per share almost doubled, which is impressive! However, Eli Lilly's market value has become 5.5 times more massive for the same period of fast growth, including a double jump from a $310-365 range in the beginning of 2023 to a new $710-750 height this week.

Some big investment houses, including Jefferies, immediately gave this company another portion of rating upgrades while raising their price targets above $800 one day after the price soared above $700 for the first time in history. Yet, actually the most powerful wave of profit taking covered the rally on its highest point, as so many traders began to sell-off the stock without even waiting for regular trading hours, when they saw it approaching $750 during the pre-market. This fast process led the price back to a $690-710 area to form a temporary technical support.

Since we have been committed to long positioning at Eli Lilly since last summer, especially when its share price soared from $454 to $521 during one trading session on August 8, we may feel that the last year was a year of buying hopes. Yet, now hopes mostly become facts, and so it looks like a proper time to gather money stones after months of casting them away. Also based on money management principles, we would judge any price upticks to $710-720 or above as a good chance to claim the previously invested money back, for not being branded as too greedy and straight.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
APE is Struggling to Rise above $1.5

ApeCoin (APE) experienced a 1.6% loss, falling to $1.348 this week. This decline occurred following the fourth unsuccessful attempt to break through a robust resistance level at $1.5 per coin. Some investors are speculating that APE prices may witness an upswing once the coin gets integrated into the gaming industry, citing increasing social media activity around ApeCoin. However, this potential positive development is likely to be a consideration for the future. In the near term, the prevailing scenario for APE suggests a slide towards $1.000, particularly amid stagnation in the broader crypto market.

The NFT Bored Ape Yacht Club, which could have potentially supported APE's recovery, is trading relatively neutrally at 24.44 ETH, experiencing a 7.5% loss since the beginning of 2024.

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