Spotify Technology has doubled its market value year-to-date when it managed to equal the record set of early 2021 at nearly $390 per share last week. Investor confidence is strong concerning the platform that revolutionized streaming services of music listening. Now more than 626 million users, including 246 million subscribers across 184 countries, are enjoying over 100 million tracks, 6 million podcasts titles and more than 350,000 audiobooks. The next portion of quarterly results will be provided by Spotify only in six weeks, on November 12, 2024, which gives the market audience additional time to choose the proper entry point for fresh Buy positioning.

The three-hour-long outage on the weekend, which reportedly affected about 40,000 users in the United States, encouraged a limited market retracement. Many users could not stream anything except recently played songs while their saved playlists did not load or music randomly stopped playing for a while. The drawdown in the market price totalled within 5% so far, yet it may expand due to some profit taking from many months of the rally. Downdetector.com used to track outages through a wide range of sources like user reports, and it reported less than 600 users were still having issues this Monday morning. "Everything's looking much better now!" Spotify representatives commented on X, formerly Twitter.

Apparently, troubles are short-lived, having a beginning and an end. Meanwhile, analyst were readily raising their mid-term price targets for the stock. A reputable investment banking and capital markets firm, Jefferies, recently put its ambition level on Spotify stock to $445, up from the previous $420. This implies a premium of around 21% to the current price. On September 25, 2024, Jefferies mentioned that Spotify's value proposition is underscored by its competitive pricing, compared to YouTube Premium, with a solid gap of over 15% in key markets to drive consumers to choose Spotify's "superior music-only offering". Universal Music Group sees a "next phase total addressable market (TAM)" of about 220 million subscribers, while watching 65% of potentially new subscribers in developing regions. Feeling the outcome of the battle for market share inside the music industry could rather be in favour of Spotify, Canadian Pivotal Research evaluation service even upgraded its price target to $510.

One way or another, most large analytical groups on Wall Street still maintain a Buy rating for Spotify. Last quarter, the company reported a 21% growth YoY in premium revenue, with the number of additional monthly active users of 14 million. Spotify's management forecasted its revenue may rise to €15.85 billion for the whole year of 2024 to reach €18.0 billion in 2025. Wall Street's pool of analysts gave an average estimate for Q3 EPS at $1.78 on revenue above $4 billion vs $1.33 per share on revenue of $3.81 billion. A good fundamental for further price growth. From our point of view, the price may fall below $350 by inertia, considering the retracement mood for Spotify, but then it will try to go above $400 once again.