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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
NEO Could Gain Another 25%

Neo (NEO) has dropped 8.2% to $10.00 this week, underperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which declined by 2.5% to $66,980. Despite this drop, NEO's price has formed an ascending triangle pattern, signaling potential for an upward move that could push prices above $12.50, possibly even as high as $13.40, which marks the middle of the ascending channel.

This ambitious target is supported by the increased security of Neo's sidechain, Neo X, which adds further confidence to the upside scenario. However, for this scenario to materialize, NEO must hold above the $10.00 support level, as breaking below could invalidate the pattern and limit further gains.

11
Bitcoin Success Story Is Yet to Come

The first and largest cryptocurrency had again failed to cross over the major psychological border at $70,000 just a few days ago. We feel it was a good try anyway, and not the last one before the year's end, even though the mid-summer rollback repeated itself. The current week is clearly a time for retracement, with a potential for Bitcoin price to slide somewhere into the area near 65,000 or slightly below. Yet, the fundamentals behind our estimates of future developments whisper that the crowd of crypto traders would barely step into the same river twice, as this is not the same river anymore. Increased market bets that Donald Trump is going to win the 2024 elections mean a high likelihood of another attempt to hit multi-month highs as political factors probably formed the main driver for Bitcoin's ascending from its local dips below 60,000 to nearly 70,000 in October. Public polls show it's rather neck and neck race between Republican and Democratic nominees, but Wall Street got its own beliefs.

The point is that "Harris stocks" generally include renewable energy, electric vehicles, healthcare and defence segments, which are in a low or uncertain mood during the last couple of weeks when the S&P 500 and especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average are growing. A very fresh example of losing ground by Lockheed Martin weapon contractor could be noted. Typically "Trump stocks" like oil and manufacturing enterprises are feeling much better, as well as some of his former personal favourites like Oracle. Our conclusion at the moment is that money reallocation signs in the real world hints at least a 60% chance of Trump's victory, with supposedly a 40% chance for Joe Biden's vice-president Kamala Harris to take his chair in the White House for the next term.

And what does it mean for Bitcoin prospects? The Democratic administration has reputations of crypto haters. A set of high-profile lawsuits from the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission has polluted the air for the industry. Harris was trying to distance herself from Biden's heritage when she briefly touched on the subject of improving a regulatory framework for crypto. This also offered support for a potential crypto rally in case of her victory, but she didn't give details of such plans. If markets would agree with polls to change positioning for a tight presidential election, then "with clear policy statements supporting crypto from the Harris campaign, the market seems less worried about downside and finds it attractive to bid here. Bitcoin ETF inflows, crypto equity markets and retail trading sentiment is screaming ‘risk-on’,” Bernstein noted this weekend. But Bitcoin lovers already transformed into Trump supporters as Trump more clearly called many times on a largely pro-crypto stance, even promising to build the future of U.S. governmental reserves on Bitcoins in America. His election campaign even accepts donations in crypto.

Bitcoin becomes a so-called Trump trade. Thus, if he wins, Bitcoin may reach $100,000 in nine to twelve months. Bloomberg wrote on October 22 that Bitcoin options traders eye $80,000 no matter who wins U.S. election, just increasing bets that Bitcoin will reach this record high by the end of November. "The open interest... for the call contracts expiring on Nov. 29" is focused around $80,000 with the second most popular strike price at $70,000, the article said, while the open interest for the calls expiring on Dec. 27 "is clustered around $100,000 and $80,000", while "the most popular strike price of the calls expiring on Nov. 8 is at $75,000". Further rate cuts "are seen contributing to the optimism". In other words, the global depreciation of the buying power of the entire currency basket in relation to the whole variety of goods and services, combined with the need for businesses to bypass restrictions, are favouring Bitcoin's rally. The Greenback strengthened this month on expectations of rather moderate 0.25% rate cut steps at the November and December meetings by U.S. central bankers. This only smoothed the crowd's aspiration to climb higher on Gold and Bitcoin, but did not cancel its desire to own more digital money instead of traditional money.

And if so, we now may sing along with Nobel Laureate Bob Dylan who famously called everybody to admit that "the waters around you have grown" and that "soon we’ll be drenched to the bone", while feeling "better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone for the times they are changing". It's probably a time to recognize the new realities to avoid just sitting on the sidelines when the crypto movement would start gaining momentum.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
ApeCoin Could Resume Climbing to $1.5000

ApeCoin (APE) is down 12.2% to $1.2300 this week, retreating after a sharp 141.9% surge during October 19-21. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) is also declining by 3.4% to $66,400.

APE’s price surge over the weekend was driven by the release of Apechain on October 19, which enables cross-chain transactions across Ethereum, Arbitrum, and ApeChain networks for assets like ApeCoin (APE), Wrapped Ethereum (WETH), USD Coin (USDC), Tether (USDT), and Dai (DAI). A key factor behind this rise is the incorporation of LayerZero’s Omnichain Fungible Token (OFT) standard into the ApeChain mainnet. LayerZero, a cross-chain interoperability protocol, allows APE to serve as a governance token for the ApeCoin DAO and handle transaction fees across multiple blockchains.

This integration boosted investor confidence and spiked demand for APE, but the rapid rise led to an overbought condition, causing a pullback. To resume upward momentum, APE needs to maintain support above $1.0000, which could pave the way for a climb towards the $1.5000 resistance.

14
A Historical Breakthrough of NVIDIA

This is exactly what nearly every heart in the market should have anticipated, and so, this finally happened. NVIDIA stock has gone onto new highs, meaning the Wall Street community enters the next stage of the AI-led rally. A gradual preparation was conducted thoroughly in the previous two weeks, when NVIDIA charts shaped a proper technical basis to consolidate at a stone's throw distance from historical peaks, generally between $130 and $140 per share. The phase of a remote bullish fire took effect. The Wall Street crowd grew accustomed to purchasing shares of the AI flagship despite continuous price hikes. As a result, most funds and private traders simply refrained from profit-fixing temptations at a crucial moment when the chip rebels' captain firm soared through the former sky to reach fresh Himalayan peaks around $144.

Contributing to this rally Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) announced a remarkable 54% growth YoY in its quarterly profits only a few days ago. TSM immediately added double digits percentage to its market value. Reaching new levels by TSM shares, even against the background of regional geopolitical risks and U.S. export controls, gave a big hope for other global leaders of the chip segment. With the firm being one of NVIDIA's largest partners, TSM management noted late last week that AI demand is "real" and "sustainable", projecting a contribution from server AI processors to TSM's revenue would be "more than triple" in 2024.

News came from Microsoft (MSFT) as the second largest company in terms of market caps on Wall Street informed its shareholders about rising its orders for NVIDIA's Blackwell GB200 chips in the current quarter, from 400 to 1,450 racks. NVIDIA is launching Blackwell chip shipment in early 4Q24, with supposed volumes are about 150,000-200,000 units, planning 500,000 to 550,000 units in Q1 2025. Other large players like Dell are consumers of Blackwell chips as well, and many of them may follow Microsoft's example to buy more new-generation chips to promote AI options.

As to some latest estimates of the whole chip segment, many analysts are also brave and optimistic. One bright example is Dan Ives at Wedbuch who shared a view that overall AI infrastructure market opportunity "could grow 10x from today through 2027", with AI cap-ex spending around $1 trillion for the next generation of chips being "on the horizon over the next 3 years". This context can conjure up dreams of stratospheric heights like $180 or even $200 per share yet to come within the nearest 12 months. Yet, even humble targets just $10-15 above $150 per share may lead the S&P 500 broad market barometer to record levels well above 6,000 points, as soon as political dust after U.S. elections settles.

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