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24.11.2022

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

24.11.2022

Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts.

28.12.2022

The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

28.12.2022

The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

11.08.2022

Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12^th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

Rafael Quintana Martinez

Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/

29.10.2024

EURUSD Is Ready to Buy

This October has been disappointing for the single currency, with the EURUSD dropping by 3.0% to 1.07600, its lowest since 3 July. Such a large decline was last seen in September 2023, followed by a three-month 6.0% rally. It would be hasty to anticipate similar strong growth now, but the pair could rise by 2.0-2.5% to ease its oversold tensions. The EURUSD has already broken through and successfully retested the descending channel’s resistance, which was established on 2 October.

So, I am planning to buy at 1.07850-1.08250, targeting 1.10000-1.10500. A stop-loss could be set at 1.06000.

EURUSD

Rafael Quintana Martinez

28.10.2024

ATOM May Climb another 16%

Cosmos (ATOM) is holding steady around $4.439 this week, following a recent 3% pullback. Bitcoin (BTC), however, is seeing a 1.2% increase, now at $68,700, which signals broader crypto market resilience. While ATOM’s uptrend appears modest, a broader bullish trajectory led by Bitcoin could lift ATOM further. Bitcoin’s approach to its peak of $69,553 suggests that a successful breakout could drive it toward the $80,000 mark, which would likely create upward momentum for other assets. For ATOM, this could present a favorable opportunity to rally above the $5.000 level, aligning with any sustained strength in the overall market.

ATMUSD

Bash

25.10.2024

The Red Pill Is Taken

That's funny, but Elon Musk's shamanic spells worked perfectly. He only had to arrive at his brainchild firm's quarterly conference call to casually mention that Tesla's vehicle growth is on the way to reach fantastic 20% to 30% (!) next year, due to lower cost vehicles, widespread advent of full-self driving autonomy and supposed 2 million Cybercabs a year "eventually". Without demanding any proof, the crowd of investors immediately came out of its post-Robotaxi-event stupor to feverishly picked up Tesla at whatever price the stock was available. Shares of the hyping EV-maker have fully plugged the bearish price gap, which suddenly appeared on the night of October 10-11. Tesla rallied nearly 22% in a one day to rebound from a $213.65 dip this Wednesday to fresh peaks above $260 per share. Thus, my entire predicted range for the rest of the year was travelled in less than 12 hours.

By the way, dreaming of a 20% to 30% pace of growth in Elon's rosy forecast is a very nice thing, but Q3 deliveries increased only 6% YoY to follow two straight quarters of YoY declines. The market was even so brave to ignore mixed Q3 earnings, when the best adjusted profit for the last five quarters ($0.72 vs consensus of $0.60) were nominally offset by lower-than-estimated revenue of $25.18 against $25.40 in average analyst projections.

Okay, so what happens next? First of all, the crowd's attitude to Tesla is a bright example that sometimes there is a fine line between love and hate, and vice versa. As for me, the EV-maker's "We, robot" presentation was amazing two weeks ago, and only the Wall Street's pool of experts spoiled the party, unreasonably claiming that visual effects with a fleet of human-like dancing robots, as well as Robotaxis and a 20-seater Robovan newly created by Tesla were probably lacking financial details. In my opinion, the stock was clearly overweight at any price below $220. However, it was also overbought near $270 in mid-summer. And now this love-hate balance shifts again towards such a trembling stage of love and loyalty.

The previous way of thinking was based on gulping down too many negative articles, even though 99 percent of a biasing tone behind these articles was politics. But the crowd blindly believed this rubbish. Now the same people think they suddenly become smart to see the whole truth as if they actually took the red pill according to Elon Musk's advising tweet a few days ago that is related not only to the red colour of Republicans instead of the blue colour of Democrats, but repeatedly referenced the first Matrix movie. If Neo takes the blue pill, you know, the story ends, according to Morpheus, and the character continues to live in the simulated reality of the Matrix, just waking up in one's own bed to believe whatever a fake person wants to believe. Whereas the red pill … “You stay in Wonderland,” says Morpheus. “And I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.” Meanwhile, reality outside the mental Matrix generated by machines can be hard, hard to understand and adopt.

What do I mean by that? I guess the same crowd is not much cleverer than it was before eating the pill. Some could take an ecstasy pill instead of blue or red pills. As a result, they are still in another euphoric version of the Matrix. It is now closer to the positive side of truth, as things are going better for Tesla in true reality. This is partially the reason why the crowd's euphoria is maybe better than its nearly causeless frustration about Tesla was before. This euphoria will not stop immediately to last for some extra time, so that a very strong bullish momentum may prompt the price to touch September 2023 highs around $280 or even its 2023 annual peaks at nearly $300 per share. Additionally, investors would be ready to buy at any local dips between $240 and $250, provided if would-be bulls may be blessed with a temporary retracement.

When the pill's effect lets the shareholders down or back to reality, my conclusion for now is that the crowd may stop somewhere higher than $270, but rather below $300. To justify this moderate point of view, at least for the next three or four months, I could say that investors may want to check the success of a pilot project with driverless ride-hailing service in Texas and California, scheduled by Elon Musk for early 2025. That's number one. Number two: the same pool of analysts may return to negativity after waiting a little, as they would certainly attempt to dissect not only the pace of EV manufacturing, but also marginality of probably discounted sales. This sad quibble with clearly growing Tesla's business worked many times in the past. If so, a new range between $240-250 as a price support and $300 as a strong resistance could be shaped soon.

However, my number three logical point is strongly in favour of resuming the rally in Tesla for higher price goals someday later. This expectation of mine is based on the two performance metrics, which are very important and closely watched by analysts. Gross margins excluding EV credits provided by regulations, now raised to 17.05% from 14.7% in the prior quarter to beat the Street's estimate at 15.1%, being "on a trajectory back into the 20% level in 2H2025," according to Wedbush. Another major metric for me is Tesla's energy generation, accumulation and charging stations business, which reportedly achieved record gross margin of as much as 30.5%. The company said in a statement that "energy storage deployments are expected to more than double year-over-year in 2024", and I sincerely believe in this prospect. For its shareholders, Tesla is not only about EV sales profit, but it is also about money from widening infrastructure for the whole EV segment, which is used even by Tesla rivals' electric cars.

TSLA

Rafael Quintana Martinez

25.10.2024

XEM Is Struggling to Climb above $0.0200

Nem (XEM) has declined by 7.2% to $0.0170 this week, significantly underperforming the broader market as Bitcoin (BTC) drops only 1.3% to $67,840. With no recent fundamental updates to support XEM, investor sentiment remains muted. The token’s last significant development was in June when Binance delisted XEM, causing a substantial 68.0% decline to $0.0111. Since then, XEM has been consolidating in a symmetrical triangle pattern, a classic signal of market indecision.

This pattern suggests equal potential for a breakout in either direction. However, the recent downtrend increases the probability of a breakdown through support, which could lead to a further 41.0% decline toward $0.0100. Conversely, if XEM manages to hold above $0.0200, a bullish scenario could emerge, potentially pushing the token up to the $0.0300 resistance level.

XEMUSD