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15.09.2022
Safe Haven Assets for Long-Term Investments: Broadcom

Broadcom is an American semiconductor and infrastructure software development company. Soon it is expected to close a merger deal with VMware, a cloud computing and visualization company, that will open new cross-sales opportunities for Broadcom to boost its revenues. Broadcom stocks are now 25% off their peak values.

According to the Q3 FY 2022 financial report that ended July 31, consolidated revenues grew by 25% year-over-year to $8.46 billion, and EPS went up by 40% to $9.73 per share. The semiconductors segment, that added 32% year-over-year, was the primary driver for the company’s profit. The company’s free cash flows (FCF) topped $4.3 billion, allowing it to spend $1.7 billion on dividends and 1.5 billion on the shares repurchase program. The company is planning to continue spending at least 50% of FCF on dividends that added 43% every year on average since 2016. 

According to the Q4 FY 2022 forward guidance, the company is expecting its revenues to go up by 20% year-over-year to $8.9 billion and for EDITDA to go up by 25% to $5.6 billion. Broadcom has great experience in expanding its product portfolio by M&A operations, and apparently it will continue on this way. The company is also expected to benefit greatly from the $52.7 billion CHIPS bill in the United States.


12.05.2022
Perspective ETFs in the ESG energy segment: Invesco Global Clean Energy Portfolio ETF

This ETF invests in green energy ventures. The pandemic led to a 300% increase of its share price. But since the beginning of 2022 they have lost 30%, twice as much as the S&P 500 SPY ETF. The net capital which has outflown from the Fund has reached $31.5 billion over the last 12 months, while the major outflow was recorded in December 2021. However, its shares are still seen to be overbought as P/E multiplier is at 24 that is well above the average of 20 for the EFT’s that are linked to the S&P 500, while the dividend yields are above PBD’s numbers.

Inflation in the United States is rising negatively affecting all shares with a high P/E ratio. So, we may expect a further decline of the PBD share price and other similar assets that cannot be protected from rising risks. Traditional energies are looking more attractive on this background and could be a perfect hedge asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties. 

11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

26.11.2024
Meta Could Score 18% in the Next Few Months

Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has been trading sideways within the $550-600 range since late September, underperforming the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, which has gained 6.0% during the same period.

While META shares remain within an ascending channel, they are currently resting at the support of the uptrend. Historically, each time the stock reached this level, it rebounded upwards by 15-18%. Consequently, the share price is likely to rise to $650-670 over the coming months. I plan to open a long trade at $550-570, targeting a potential upside of $185. A stop-loss could be placed below recent lows at $480.

12.04.2024
CarMax Is More Committed to Innovations But Market Conditions Make It Sinking

CarMax (KMX) quarterly report came out on April 11, vividly displaying why any immediate investment into the used car market still sounds like not a good idea. The stock quickly lost ground, wasting a double-digit number of percentage points as a response to its net income drop to $0.32 per share against $0.44 cents per share a year ago, also compared to much stronger $0.52, $0.75 and $1.44 per share in the previous three quarters. Analyst polls estimated a net income per share at about $0.50, which would be 56% better than the reality.

This almost looks like a financial fiasco in the company's efforts to withstand slowing demand in the segment. CarMax Q4 2023 revenue decreased by 1.7% to $5.6 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of $5.8 billion, indicating the lack of gross marginality of the business. This happened even though the total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots grew by 9% YoY to 2.27 million units in March, according to Cox Automotive data. CarMax CEOs delayed their own goal of selling over 2 million units annually, when measuring combined retail and wholesale actions, to between 2026 and 2030, from its prior target of 2026.

A "higher-for-longer" Fed fund rates is demonstrably bad for car sales volumes, be it new generation Tesla cars or just pre-owned vehicles, while operating costs for warehouses are growing. Besides, easing some semiconductor constraints in North America may help marginally improving orders for new cars, leaving used-car sales under the same pressure. Meanwhile, the entrance of Asia players offered significant discounts. Therefore, North American and European operators of the used car market need to sell many great cars at cheaper prices. CarMax already posted its official warning of a potential "hit to profit-sharing revenue" due to inflationary impact to its partners, before last Christmas. "While affordability of used cars remains the challenge for consumers, pricing improved during the quarter," Enrique Mayor-Mora, executive vice president and CFO admitted.

It was only a smaller division of CarMax Auto Finance, which managed to get a 19% better income due to "a lower provision for loan losses" and an increase in average managed receivables. Yet, this was rather news from the side business, which was clearly not enough to be optimistic. The company added that it is now focused on enhancing its omni-channel experience and leveraging data science and automation. Carmax said it delivered "strong retail and wholesale" graphic processors, which helped to increase "used saleable inventory units" more than 10%, but used total inventory units was unchanged despite innovations. The company seeks to achieve efficiency improvements in its core operations, believing that they "are well-positioned to drive growth as the market turns", according to Enrique Mayor-Mora. This may be useful to strengthen competitiveness in better times for the segment. Yet, the current challenges are too heavy to be ignored by market crowds.

New Buy Positions in Google

Google-parent Alphabet initially grew by nearly 2% in after-hours trading late July 23 after the search giant released its quarterly record high in Q2 earnings at the level of $1.89 per share, which was equal to its Q1 achievements. However, the share price of Google erased the gains very soon and even dropped by more than 5% or by around $10 per share in the pre-market trading on July 24. The current levels at $172 per share of Google or even lower were detected last time in early June. So, what has caused a mixed perception of the report by market communities?

Google's revenue added 14% YoY to $84.74 billion vs consensus projections of $84.16 billion, a great result, which is $4.2 billion higher than in the first three months of the year, yet falling short of Google's own new super standard at $86.31 billion, once established in the Christmas quarter of 2023. Besides, search and cloud parts of the business generated good profit on higher revenue while sales numbers from YouTube advertisement came out at $8.66 billion after posting $8.1 billion ad sales for the first quarter of 2024 vs supposedly higher expert estimates of $8.95 billion. Now we can see a mirror situation against late April, when Wall Street expected YouTube’s ad revenue for Q1 to come in at $7.72 billion, surpassing targets that time and now excessive hype is offset by moderate growth.

Meanwhile, Google's rise in the digital advertising industry gave $64.62 billion of sales altogether against average analyst estimate of $64.53 billion, also much better than $61.66 billion brought in Q1 and up from $58.14 billion in the same period YoY. Google Cloud business contributed $10.35 billion vs $10.20 billion expected to surpass a $10 billion milestone for the first time ever, while operating income for Google Cloud reached $1.17 billion, well above analyst pool estimates of $982.2 million. Alphabet group's capital expenditures were at $13.19 billion, above the averagely anticipated $12.2 billion, which may indicate continuing investments in its businesses.

Even the company’s “Other Bets” unit, including smaller branches like its self-driving car company Waymo, reportedly generated $365 million, up from $285 million YoY. Its finance chief Ruth Porat announced that Alphabet is going to invest $5 billion in Waymo in near future as the service became available for San Francisco users, a second citywide rollout, after its 2020 debut in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Waymo cars are now making 50,000 weekly paid public rides.

Thus, the only real fault in Alphabet's numbers was that they did not show such overwhelming evidence of faster and wider progress in each of the segments as the spectators were betting. Sometimes the crowd may downplay results when it cherishes hopes for the future, but this is just the situation when both optimists and realists were probably expecting too much but ahead of time and an actual pace of growth. Yet, this growth looks solid and fundamentally justified in the case of Google shares, so that the renewal of uptrend is only a question of proper timing and pricing.

Google stock started the year of 2024 around $140 per share. Since then, its business was growing very well, and a break through its April's resistance line at nearly $160 was an important episode of the rally. If so, we feel a $160-165 area as a very strong support, and a vicinity of $150 as an extremely strong support area, with a potential to launch new massive buy positions by many Wall Street habitues before reaching it again. Again, any levels below $170 are looking nice and rather attractive for purchasing more stakes in Google, in this context, keeping in mind an all-time high at $191.75, which has been achieved only a couple of weeks ago.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Binance Coin Is Seeking a Path to $700

Binance Coin (BNB) is down 2.9% this week, trading at $586.00, paralleling Bitcoin (BTC), which has also declined by 2.9% to $66,200. Despite this rollback, BNB's price movement remains robust, following an uptrend established on December 11, 2023, a trend not many cryptocurrencies can boast.

Currently, BNB is testing the $600 resistance level with heightened volatility. The altcoin has a strong chance of surpassing this resistance and moving towards $700, driven by high transaction activity on the Binance network. Additionally, Binance's recent burn of $971 million worth of BNB in its 28th quarterly token burn is a positive factor for BNB prices.

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B
A Case of Inattention to Strong Business Performance

It appears to me that Wall Street simply closed its eyes to Netflix's quarterly report last Thursday, as the investing minds were too busy with more important stuff like IT stocks correction, a global crash of Windows and sleepy Joe Biden's decision to bow out of the presidential race. These all were very entertaining stories. Meanwhile, the world's largest online entertainment service added 8 million new subscribers from April through June to top average analyst projections of nearly 4.8 million, while the markets somehow lost this mind dazzling fact. The quotes only briefly jumped to $677.95 and then quickly returned to the area between $630 and $655 for the next two trading sessions.

A cool content slate, including titles like "Bridgerton'', "Baby Reindeer", "The Roast of Tom Brady" and Avatar: The Last Airbender family blockbuster, its ad-supported tier to form discounted subscription for most money conscious customers, and a very successful crackdown on password sharing helped the streaming giant to earn $4.88 per share on Q2 sales of $9.56 billion, beating consensus estimates of $4.74 on sales of $9.53 billion. In combination with 9.3 million subscribers who joined the service in Q1, this could strengthen an already solid foundation, consisting of more than 277 million viewers, under the lasting Netflix stock rally, even though its CEOs estimated Q3 2024 sales at slightly lower levels of $9.73 billion against market expectations of $9.82 billion. A well-built forecast on Q3 EPS of record $5.10 per share soaring above average market bets on $4.75 per share more than offsets possible flaws (or perceived flaws) in gross revenue forward guidance.

Ad tier membership rose by 34% from the prior quarter, while it was growing "nicely" to become a "more meaningful contributor to our business," according to a message from Netflix to investors. "Building a business from scratch takes time - and coupled with the large size of our subscription revenue - we don't expect advertising to be a primary driver of our revenue growth in 2024 or 2025", the official letter commented. It also informed the audience of the company's intention to release a computer game based on "Squid Game" "later this year", in sync with the second season of this very popular dystopian Korean series. Later, the games tied to "Emily in Paris" and "Selling Sunset" movies will be released as well.

Such a clear-cut case of inattention to strong business performance would look even strange, if not the current tech rotation background into smaller caps with additional uncertainty ahead of bellwethers' reports. Google-parent Alphabet (GOOG) and extremely volatile Tesla (TSLA) will be the first of them to announce their results. Surely, the further direction of the IT segment monsters may also affect the next move up or down by Netflix share price. Still, I see Netflix's path to $800, even if it has to slide to test its major technical support in the vicinity of $600 per share before the next round of climbing upstairs.

3792
Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Litecoin Shines Positive

Litecoin (LTC) is declining by 2.0% to $72.28 this week, but it is consolidating above the key resistance level at $70.00, which was surpassed on July 15. This indicates the altcoin’s strength. However, some crypto enthusiasts have noted a decrease in whale activity, which has dropped by 23.0% to $2.6 billion over the last several weeks. This decline could be attributed to various factors that are not necessarily negative.

Other technical signals suggest positive prospects for Litecoin. An inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has emerged on the chart, which could push LTC prices up by 20.0% to $87.00. The current consolidation phase also supports an upside scenario with a target of $80.00. Legendary trader John Bollinger has predicted that Litecoin is poised for a major upside move, further reinforcing the bullish outlook.

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