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09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

23.01.2025
Ontology Is Sliding Towards $0.2000

Ontology (ONT) is down 2.3% this week, trading at $0.2176, in line with the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) has declined 2.0% to $101,632. While the new U.S. administration has made some strides toward fairer crypto regulation, Donald Trump has remained silent on the highly anticipated issue of adding Bitcoin to U.S. federal reserves.

Market speculation is rampant, with figures like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggesting Bitcoin could surge to $700,000 per coin if sovereign wealth funds begin accumulating. Other forecasts predict Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end. While such projections could foster optimism, the lack of decisive action or announcements regarding U.S. crypto reserves is weighing heavily on the market.

For Ontology, the situation remains bearish. Having breached the critical support at $0.2500 last week, the token is now approaching the $0.2000 level. A failure to provide clear evidence or statements about U.S. federal crypto reserve plans could see ONT fall even further, breaching the $0.2000 mark and deepening its losses.

16.01.2025
Delta Is Taking Off To Update Its Highs

Delta Air Lines stock rose markedly by low double digits in the first ten days of the new year. The U.S. carrier has served more than 200 million customers in 2024, when it was also recognized by J.D. Power, a leading American data analytics and consumer intelligence company, for being No. 1 in First/Business and Premium Economy Passenger Satisfaction. Travelers became more willing to spend extra money for swanky seats when meeting a high level of service. Delta is just positioning itself as the nation's premium airline. And what's more important, its Christmas quarter's earnings reportedly surpassed average analyst pool projections. Driven by stronger travel demand, smart financial management and capacity discipline, Delta business provided last three-months' profit of $1.85 per share vs $1.28 at the same period one year ago, compared to $1.75 in consensus estimates. On January 10, the airline industry leader put its future profit levels within a range between $0.70 and $1 per share in the current quarter through the end of March, while analyst expectations were focused on $0.77 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. The starting months of each year always perform worse. It is clear that all carriers made losses in the Covid years of 2020-2022, but Delta profits only recovered into a range from $0.25 to $0.45 in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively, but Q1 profit numbers varied from $0.75 to $0.96 even in the three blessed years before the pandemic. Delta added that it is forecasting annual earnings in excess of $7.35 a share, which would be the highest in its 100-year history, based on its planned revenue growth of 7% to 9% in the March quarter from a year ago. The announcement could be compared to an adjusted profit of $6.16 a share in 2024. The company happily breaks through ticket prices' rising effects, almost undisturbed by a reduction in airline seats in the domestic market, which was peculiar for most carriers. Thus, new expectations created a fertile ground for setting new price records, even though price movements on Delta charts look most convincing among its other American rivals.

By the way, Citigroup analysts freshly updated their outlook on Delta Air Lines shares to raise their price target to $80 from the previous $77, vs the actual range around $65 per share where the stock just came after a reasonable market correction from last week's and all-time highs. Citigroup said it has included factors like higher revenue per available seat mile, projections of slightly lower fuel prices, increased taxation, a minor rise in share count, and the incorporation of fourth-quarter 2024 results into their financial model, which has projected Delta's profit at $7.49 per share in 2024 and $8.72 in 2025. Delta shares are Buy-rated at Citi, and we agree with their positive estimates in general, while keeping in mind even better price goals somewhere between $82.5 and $85.

14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Buying Philip Morris below $90.00

Philip Morris multinational tobacco company (PM) stocks have reached a notable support level at $90.00, a price point that has been retested 11 times since April 2021. This support has demonstrated its resilience over time and appears to be well-defended by large market players. Given this historical pattern, there is a reasonable expectation that the support level will hold once again.

Considering the current price of $89.08 per share, I plan to initiate a long trade position. My target price for this trade is set at $100.00 per share, representing an 11.0% increase from the current level. To manage risk, I will place a stop-loss order at $80.00 per share, which is below the lows observed on December 30, 2022.

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Nobody Wants To Dig Up Boeing from Under the Ground

The tongue ever turns to the aching tooth, and so I am always in a search for any fresh negative information about Boeing Corporation (BA). As you well know, I have conceived a long-term bullish position in Boeing's major rival Airbus (AIR) since the beginning of 2024, later complemented by a more risky idea of short-selling directly on Boeing stock. I waited for the moment when the trading deal with Boeing proved to be effective, following the official US FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) announcement on investigating another whistleblower's claims that the aircraft manufacturer allegedly ignored reported safety or quality warnings when continuing a mass production of its 787 and 777 jets. As a result, the share price of Boeing lost nearly 2% this Wednesday to set another anti-record since at $174.63 on daily closing price since late November of 2022. The lowest intraday point was below $172.50. Now I am riding my hobby horse again by sharing the details of Boeing's potentially growing reputational concerns, which strongly affected supply orders.

A January 5 panel blowout on a 737 MAX plane served as a faint warning compared to Boeing engineer Sam Salehpour's testimony before the FAA commission. The man already witnessed challenges like threats and exclusion from working meetings, after he "identified engineering problems that affected the structural integrity of the jets", adding that Boeing "employed shortcuts to reduce bottlenecks" during 787 assembly, according to his attorney's comments to Reuters. Previously, the FAA had to investigate quality problems and manufacturing flaws for the same 787 model, which led Boeing to halting deliveries of this jet for more than a year in 2021-2022. At that time, Boeing management admitted some 787 planes had shims of improper size for filling tiny gaps with areas violating skin-flatness specifications. Yet, the engineer Sam Salehpour insists that further assembly process made an "excessive stress on major airplane joints. As two examples, "embedded drilling debris" was allegedly found by him on more than 1,000 planes, while some misalignment problems in the 777 jets were remedied by using force, so that he "literally saw people jumping on the pieces of the airplane to get them to align".

"Voluntary reporting without fear of reprisal is a critical component in aviation safety," the FAA only commented after the meeting with the whistleblower. Sometimes conciseness may tell more than verbosity. As to the professional community of engineering employees, called SPEEA, it just identified him as a member who works at Boeing's plant in Washington. In combination with a strange “suicide” of another Boeing's accuser, John Barnett, the story continues to cast a shadow on the giant company's working processes on assembly of popular jets. A Senate investigation subcommittee is scheduled to hold a hearing with Salehpour in about a week, on April 17. The issue is titled "Examining Boeing's Broken Safety Culture: Firsthand Accounts''. Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun recently said he is going to step down by the end of 2024, and he would supposedly testify at a hearing. The top Republican members on the panel said their goal is "to provide Boeing the opportunity to explain to the American people why, in light of recent apparent safety failures, the public should feel confident in Boeing's engineering and assembly processes''. "Rather than heeding his warnings, Boeing prioritized getting the planes to market as quickly as possible, despite the known, well-substantiated issues he raised," Salehpour's lawyers said in their statement a couple of days ago.

On a parallel course, the U.S. Department of Justice said it is trying to find out whether Boeing violated a 2021 settlement that allowed the company to avoid responsibility on a charge of "conspiring to defraud the FAA" after two fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019. Nothing looks easy for Boeing now. Its delivery numbers plunged nearly by half YoY, as of the end of March. As the investigations are protracted, the market crowd is not eager to dig up Boeing shares from the hole it entered mostly by its CEOs' inaction and silence. Technically, the accomplished failure under the thin ice of a former $180 support would lead to a test of an area around $150 per share, which I feel as still a good chance for earning money on holding short sell positions on Boeing. The next possible target could be around $125, corresponding to the very lows of 2022.

Meanwhile, Airbus shares moderately retreated from its recent all-time peaks, yet its management confirmed confidence in airplane output forecasts. The European competitor of Boeing is getting additional orders from all those airlines, which need to continue post-covid recovery. Nothing new or very special except that Airbus reported 142 deliveries in Q1, being closer to the way to an annual delivery target of 800 aircrafts. Single-aisle production volume is below planning levels at around 50 planes a month, but the manufacturing process is going to be accelerated to reach 75 a month in 2026, the company's chief executive Guillaume Faury confirmed.

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Delta Changed Air Travel Segment Sceptics’ Perception

Despite the major broad market barometer on Wall Street (US500) lost more than one percentage point in the U.S. Eastern time midday on April 10, simply because of some higher-than-expected consumer price data, the shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) jumped by 4% soon after the opening bell and lost their heat only when the core group of other stocks surrendered under the pressure of inflationary agenda. Unfortunately, the U.S. Consumer price index (CPI) added another 0.4% on a monthly basis to a 3.5% YoY, against a 3.2% in the previous month and a 3.4% of consensus growth expectations. Of course, this raised concerns of possible postponing the Fed's interest rates cuts. The FedWatch Tool on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) now shows a 95% chance of holding borrowing costs unchanged within its historically high 5.25-5.50% range in May and a 81.5% probability of the same scenario for the U.S. central bank meeting on June 12. The majority of futures traders are betting for September 18, meaning the date of the first interest rates cut. As a result, the S&P 500 futures washed up on the shore below 5,150 points after pretending to approach 5,300 only several days before. Meanwhile, Delta (DAL) pioneered first quarter earnings to the audience, and the reported numbers partially changed air travel segment sceptics’ perception. The report clearly deserves attention, as it has by far surpassed the expert pool forecasts, posting Q1 EPS (earnings per share) at $0.45 vs supposed $0.34. This is a sign of squeezing more-than-feared money from even a declining revenue of $12.6 billion, compared to $14.3 on average in the previous three quarters. The first quarter is usually an air pocket every year for the entire industry, yet Delta was able to collect 6.8% more than in Q1 2023, when it gained only $0.25 of pure income per share on an $11.8 billion of revenue. The first quarter of 2022 gave Delta a $1.23 loss in EPS on only $9.35 billion in sales. This actually marked the best ever Q1 in Delta's history.

From the outer point of view, Delta is progressing fine, so that financial improvements are evident. Besides, the company's own projected revenue for the upcoming April to June quarter is hitting records. Delta CEOs said they are waiting for "a mid-teens operating margin", with an EPS of $2.20 to $2.50 and targeting their brave EPS outlook of $6.00 to $7.00 for the full year of 2024, vs a consensus of $6.46. Free cash flow is anticipated at $3 to $4 billion, which also looks positive. A stronger recovery path of the business pushed some analyst houses, including Citigroup, to admit that Delta performance was encouraging. "These results should support Buy-rated Delta Air Lines’ shares on Wednesday morning," Citi wrote in a client note, adding that it allows the investment group to identify Delta as "its preferred US carrier." City analysts got a $55 price target on the stock, vs a $47 area reached after the intraday retracement.

At least, a breakthrough well above the $50-52 resistance for the last 12 months looks an almost inevitable scenario. It also sounds reasonable to expect at least a short-lived re-test of a pre-covid all-time high at $63.44, because inflation sets new standards for share pricing in many cases.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Tron is Struggling to Recover above $0.1200

Tron (TRX) has seen a modest rise of 0.7% this week, reaching $0.1209, with earlier gains peaking at 3.1% when the token briefly climbed to $0.1240 on Wednesday. However, much of these gains were eroded amidst broader market downturns.

In contrast to Bitcoin's 15.5% gain in March, Tron experienced a 13.0% loss during the same period, reflecting its underperformance exacerbated by regulatory pressures from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The token dipped below the $0.1200 support level, hitting $0.1098 on March 20, before partially recovering from its losses.

There are no good news for Tron. Its founder Justin Sun it trying to create some alternative news speculating around AI issues. He was also asking the U.S. Court to Dismiss SEC lawsuit.

Investors may find solace in the hope that the $0.1200 support level holds, especially if no additional pressures are exerted on the crypto market. In such a scenario, Tron could potentially stage a recovery towards the $0.1400 resistance level.

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