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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
BAT Is Eager to Surpass $0.2000

Basic Attention Token (BAT) is seeing a modest rise of 6.5% to $0.1950 this week, lagging behind most of other altcoins. Bitcoin (BTC) has added 4.5% to $65,500. BAT’s performance may be hindered by strong resistance at the $0.2000 level. However, the broader market's positive momentum, combined with October historically being a strong month for the crypto market, suggests BAT could still have upside potential.

If BAT can break through this resistance, the token may rally towards $0.2500, representing a possible 28% increase from current levels. Given the overall market sentiment, a breakthrough could trigger a stronger performance.

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Airline Stocks Rally May Resume

Shares of Southwest Airlines have been able to keep only 5% gains on the closing price from their initial double-digit percentage jump in the first few minutes after the opening bell on Thursday. The bullish market response followed an announcement on turning around the carrier's suffering business strategy. Attractive vacation packages for passengers and sale-leaseback deals for planes were listed among priority steps. Southwest management noted that the measures are going to bring nearly $4 billion of earnings before interest and taxes in three years, additionally giving a 10% operating margin, 15% payback on an invested capital unit and at least $1 billion in free cash flow.

The Texas-based airline heavyweight wasted 32.5% of its market cap in five months from early March to early August, as its business underperformed, reportedly due to managing demand troubles across booking curves, as the company reserved too many seats for the peak travel season. Southwest fleet's current capacity surpassed demand, so that the major parameter of revenue per available seat mile (RASM) lost 3.8% in Q2. Besides, the U.S. government penalized Southwest in December 2023 by $140 million for numerous violations of consumer protection laws during a set of operational failures which led to cancellation of nearly 17,000 flights in 2022. Now Southwest is planning to meet challenges in several ways, including warnings for its employees of "difficult decisions" ahead to cut costs, creating new premium seats with assigned extra-legroom space by reducing seat pitch on over half of its planes, some route changing with starting overnight flights and launching a partnership with Icelandair for transatlantic connectivity. The carrier also revealed its $2.5 billion share buyback program.

These measures are still criticized by activist investor Elliott Management, who wants a shakeup of top management, when saying the plans are "filled with long-dated promises of better performance" but called for "credible leadership", now representing "another promise of a better tomorrow from the same people who have created the problems we face today". This is probably why the positive market dynamics stopped literally in the middle of the road to the upside. However, a further march forward from the current $30 to $35 per share looks realistic against these cramped conditions. A common rise in labour and airport costs still pressures the whole market segment. But other U.S. top carriers are clearly returning to their former splendour.

Delta (DAL) is coming so close to its pre-pandemic peaks, quickly adding another 6% on its weaker Southwest rival's progress, repeatedly touching its major resistance area well above $50 per share, as its all-time highs were located around $60 in 2019-2020. Citigroup reaffirmed its Buy rating on Delta stock, targeting at $65 and raising its forecast for the nearest quarterly earnings per share (EPS) from $1.37 to $1.51 and its full-year estimate for Delta's EPS to $6.05 from $5.98 in 2024, plus betting on $7.19 and $8.42 for the next couple of years. City sees a reduction in non-operating expenses and possible improvements in costs per available seat mile excluding fuel, which could be a good sign for resuming the broader airline stocks' rally before Christmas with traditionally increased activity of vacation flights.

Meanwhile, United Airlines (UAL) stock is soaring to its new three-year high at $58.85, after a 8.75% one-off jump the same day on September 26. A couple of weeks ago, United Airlines said it was ready to offer free Starlink Wi-Fi by SpaceX satellites on flights. The service will start later this year, and then the entire fleet of over 1,000 planes used by United Airlines will be equipped with the technology in the coming years. Climbing higher to approach the price range from $65 to $70 may be attempted.

Record-breaking summer travel numbers in North America may be expanded to cover this autumn and winter season as well, which may support the upward rally for various airline operators to repeat last year's bullish wave which was a memorable feature in the same period of 2023.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Synthetix Is Seen Further Up

Synthetix (SNX) has surged by 15.0% to $1.720 this week, significantly outperforming the broader market. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 2.6% to $64,320.

SNX broke through the resistance of a falling wedge pattern at the end of August, signalling a potential reversal. A double-bottom pattern has also formed since April 3, with prices retesting the downtrend resistance in early August. From a technical perspective, this setup presents several strong bullish signals for further upside.

Fundamentally, Synthetix has also made significant strides with the recent launch of its TLX protocol in August, which enables leverage trading, and the introduction of SNAXchain, an application that facilitates cross-chain liquidity. These developments bolster the project's long-term potential, with SNX prices eyeing $2.000 as the first target, and potentially reaching $3.000.

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B
You Should Not Underestimate Micron

Finita la commedia. Shares of Micron Technology could no longer remain mired at their untypical double-digit price bottom where the stock landed somehow in August. I told you before, this mostly happened because of simple misunderstanding. Micron earnings in the last two quarters were strong and logically convincing, nominally exceeding consensus estimates both in the revenue and profit lines. For example, the Wall Street analysts’ pool "officially" expected Q2 EPS of $0.48 on $6.66 billion of quarterly sales vs $0.42 per share on $5.82 billions in Q1, with only about $4 billion per quarter being available on average in 2023. The actual Q2 numbers came out at $0.62 per share (+29% above average forecasts in terms of corporate profit) on $6.81 billion of revenue. However, the crowd was hungry for more. Micron's own sales projection at $7,6 billion, plus or minus $0.2 million, only added arguments to market's disappointment in mid-summer, as greedy investors were betting on a much higher update for business performance indicators of a major NVIDIA's partner in production of DRAM for graphic processing units and Blackwell AI chips.

People often do not appreciate good things here and now, cherishing hopes for promises of much better progress in the future. However, the underestimation of Micron seems to be coming to an end. The company's share price jumped by more than 13% in after-hours trading on Wednesday to retest last month's important resistance area above $108 per share. The point is that Micron's CEO team notably updated its forecasts this night by saying he now expects the first quarter's sales at a much higher range from $8.50 billion to $8.90 billion, vs also rising consensus estimates of $8.28 billion. Growing memory chips demand is cited as a reason behind upbeat expectations. The company's inner forecast for adjusted EPS lies in a range of $1.74, give or take $0.08 vs average analyst estimates for $1.58. The latest quarterly results topped analyst estimates as well, after adjusted earnings for the last three months came out at $1.18 per share on revenue of $7.75 billion, due to "robust AI demand drove a strong ramp of our data centre DRAM products and our industry-leading high bandwidth memory (HBM)", compared to $1.11 a share on revenue of $7.65 billion in preliminary consensus numbers. By the way, Micron Technology is one of the only three providers of HBM chips, along with South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung, which are needed to power generative AI technology. Micron's HBM chips were fully sold out for the 2024 and 2025 calendar years.

Based on the current fundamental and technical bullish momentum, I would expect a step-by-step recovery of Micron stock to initial price targets between $130 and $140 (meaning another 20%-30% growth) within the next three to six months, with a potential of climbing at a $160 hill, where Micron's all-time highs were detected in mid-June 2024.

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