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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

B
Chinese Markets Took Heart

China's working to speed up stimulus, premier Li Qiang says. Beijing authorities are trying their best for the demand side and domestic consumption to come back. Besides lowering borrowing costs for businesses and consumer credits since 2021, unlike Western central banks, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) also coordinates its efforts to boost capital market funding and easing home-buying rules in megacities like Shanghai and Shenzhen. The integrated approach not only helps to revive the country's building industry but also may free up some householders' money to spend more for other purposes. As a result, as soon as Shanghai's property index bounced off its former trend, hopes for a holistic ending of Chinese economic slowdown quickly led to China's stock indices' rebound and to great China's ADRs leap on Wall Street.

Therefore, long-neglected shares of Alibaba Group BABA), JD.com (JD), Baidu (BIDU) and PDD Holdings (PDD) were eventually cleared for take off. In particular, Alibaba soared by more than 30% for the last 8 trading sessions, including +3% on today's opening, yet it has a couple of extra hundred percentage points in reserve for the case this high demand of Chinese stock would retain. Those China businesses are the top gainers on Wall Street in the second half of September, even overtaking big techs, consumer discretionary or U.S. rooted industrial stocks on a turn. Therefore, I am going to make at least 5% to 7% room for them in my portfolio. No more than that at the moment, as risks with Asian firms are also high, at least because of possible trade wars with the next White House administration if Republicans will sit there. Democrats are also not kind to the supply of technology solutions to China. However, E-commerce platforms that are focusing on non-U.S. sales should be least affected by any kind of cross-border or tax barriers.

What I also like is that Alibaba CEOs said last week that they will accelerate the AI push by releasing new open source text-to-video models. They are trying to compete in the generative AI area with US-rooted tech monsters. Alibaba said it is launching a hybrid model with both proprietary and open-source development to broaden its AI product range and to compete on the playground of giant players like OpenAI, a close partner of Microsoft, using from 0.5 to 72 billion parameters to determine an AI model's capability, also supporting for over 29 languages. Baidu is actually a Chinese "version" of Google, which looks like another promising direction for investments. The exact price targets cannot be determined yet, but this can be dealt with later when the deals with Chinese ADRs would start to bring at least some substantial profit... as I hope.

Chinese auto manufacturers like Nio (NIO) or Li Auto (LI), as well as casino operators like Wynn Resorts (WYNN) or Las Vegas Sands (LVS), which have a large presence in Chinese Macau, may also deserve some attention, yet give me more doubts in terms of continuous financial injection by the market community. I think I'll wait with this kind of stocks and think twice before putting my money in the segments.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Bitcoin Could Add 30% in October

The month of October is one of the best months for the cryptocurrency market. Over the past four years, October has seen Bitcoin prices rise by an average of 27.5%. The worst October was in 2022, when Bitcoin increased by only 9.0%, while the best result was in October 2021, with prices soaring by 42.0%. Therefore, I expect at least an average performance this October, with prices potentially rallying to £83,000-£84,000 per coin. These levels are the minimum required to align with the post-halving sequence.

Historically, during the six months following the halving event, Bitcoin prices have surged by 65% or more. This translates into a target range of £105,000-£110,000. I believe this would be the maximum target.

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Spotify Is At Record Highs

Spotify Technology has doubled its market value year-to-date when it managed to equal the record set of early 2021 at nearly $390 per share last week. Investor confidence is strong concerning the platform that revolutionized streaming services of music listening. Now more than 626 million users, including 246 million subscribers across 184 countries, are enjoying over 100 million tracks, 6 million podcasts titles and more than 350,000 audiobooks. The next portion of quarterly results will be provided by Spotify only in six weeks, on November 12, 2024, which gives the market audience additional time to choose the proper entry point for fresh Buy positioning.

The three-hour-long outage on the weekend, which reportedly affected about 40,000 users in the United States, encouraged a limited market retracement. Many users could not stream anything except recently played songs while their saved playlists did not load or music randomly stopped playing for a while. The drawdown in the market price totalled within 5% so far, yet it may expand due to some profit taking from many months of the rally. Downdetector.com used to track outages through a wide range of sources like user reports, and it reported less than 600 users were still having issues this Monday morning. "Everything's looking much better now!" Spotify representatives commented on X, formerly Twitter.

Apparently, troubles are short-lived, having a beginning and an end. Meanwhile, analyst were readily raising their mid-term price targets for the stock. A reputable investment banking and capital markets firm, Jefferies, recently put its ambition level on Spotify stock to $445, up from the previous $420. This implies a premium of around 21% to the current price. On September 25, 2024, Jefferies mentioned that Spotify's value proposition is underscored by its competitive pricing, compared to YouTube Premium, with a solid gap of over 15% in key markets to drive consumers to choose Spotify's "superior music-only offering". Universal Music Group sees a "next phase total addressable market (TAM)" of about 220 million subscribers, while watching 65% of potentially new subscribers in developing regions. Feeling the outcome of the battle for market share inside the music industry could rather be in favour of Spotify, Canadian Pivotal Research evaluation service even upgraded its price target to $510.

One way or another, most large analytical groups on Wall Street still maintain a Buy rating for Spotify. Last quarter, the company reported a 21% growth YoY in premium revenue, with the number of additional monthly active users of 14 million. Spotify's management forecasted its revenue may rise to €15.85 billion for the whole year of 2024 to reach €18.0 billion in 2025. Wall Street's pool of analysts gave an average estimate for Q3 EPS at $1.78 on revenue above $4 billion vs $1.33 per share on revenue of $3.81 billion. A good fundamental for further price growth. From our point of view, the price may fall below $350 by inertia, considering the retracement mood for Spotify, but then it will try to go above $400 once again.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Ethereum May Add 45-50% in October

Ethereum (ETH) could be set for a robust rally in October, a historically favorable month for the crypto market. If trends persist, ETH may outperform Bitcoin (BTC), which has averaged gains of 27.5% in the last four Octobers. This could lift ETH to $3,300-3,400. Additionally, ETH has underperformed by 15% since the Bitcoin halving in April, suggesting that if it catches up, prices could surge 45-50%, potentially reaching $3,900-4,000.

Looking further ahead, the U.S. presidential election could be a major factor for ETH. A victory by Donald Trump might fuel a further rally, pushing prices to $4,500-5,000. Conversely, if Kamala Harris wins, market sentiment toward crypto could sour, leading to a 20-30% decline in ETH prices.

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