News and analysis

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is up 1.5% to $0.00001248 this week, underperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is rising by 4.3% to $88,465. Investor sentiment has been buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to either cut interest rates soon or step down, with Trump dismissing Powell as “Mr. Too Late” and “a major loser.” This rhetoric has pushed bets on a quarter-point Fed rate cut in June to 64.3%. Although SHIB is lagging behind from a broader market perspective, the meme coin appears promising. The token dipped to its support at $0.00001000 in early April and then bounced by 25%. Should Bitcoin break through the resistance in the $90,000–$92,000 range, SHIB could potentially rally by 58% to around $0.00002000.

As I have already shared my clear intention to take most of mid-term profits on Gold trades on Good Friday, especially if there is another spectacular price jump immediately after the Easter weekend, now I confirm that this is exactly what I did. Over 3% of extra value on April 21 brought the total gains for the latest couple of weeks to as much as 15%, which looks like more than enough in my eyes. It is also worth noting here that the rationale for the latest climb up this hill, which is only about $70 short of the round figure of $3,500 per troy ounce, did not seem fundamentally compelling.

Nominally, it was Trump's call to fire Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve, which reputable strategist Krishna Guha at Evercore ISI even characterized as allegedly a "self-defeating" action to position Powell "as a scapegoat" in case tariffs will actually slow down the economy. However, if this is truly a doomed, i.e. unfeasible, call, then pure logic suggests that it is unlikely to provide the basis for situational changes in the market sentiment for more than a few days. But if this financial high priest's "elimination because of one man" is indeed a realistic scenario, then it would be related to as fast as possible rate cut moves for the U.S. Dollar, designed to prevent recession prospects against which Trump's attack was supposedly intended.

Thus, this mental circle is closed, so that fading recession fears should not only lift the major Wall Street indices from their current lows to prompt the fresh investment boom, as those indices dropped this Monday mainly due to increasing fears of a recession, but another consequence would lie in reducing demand for traditional safe haven assets like gold or silver. Perhaps, in this case, a speculative play of strengthening rival reserve currencies and crypto assets may resume, but gold will probably be traded around $3,500 or slightly above only by inertia, which will not produce lasting effects. Any pullback in Gold, once it starts, by the way, would confirm my pre-determination to also add more equities, including tech giants, into my long-term portfolio, given increasingly favourable price discounts in CFDs like Google, Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA etc.

One of my darlings, the hyping EV maker Tesla, will report on April 22, soon after the closing bell, and any possible temporary lows on lower-than-expected earnings could provide a historic chance to buy incredibly low in the after-hours. IBM is going to report the following night, and Google-parent Alphabet would be the next giant to be exposed one more day after. Procter & Gamble and PepsiCo are also on my radar due to their quarterly reports this Thursday. And maybe Philip Morris will have something interesting to say on Wednesday, although I'm less optimistic about that.

Finally, here is my very short version of Trump-Powell's story for all who missed it. The US president criticised Powell, who said last week that interest rates should not be lowered until it becomes clear that Trump’s tariff plans won’t lead to a persistent surge in inflation. Trump addressed Powell to initiate “preemptive cuts” if he is not intended to risk a slowing economy. "With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW," Trump commented in his post on Truth Social. This suddenly sent Wall St broadly lower and bond yields higher. Why the news feeds just focused on Trump's warnings about weaker economic outlook with higher-for-longer interest rates rather than the possibility of Powell ultimately buckling under pressure from Trump's team is a mystery to me. How about you?

The key words were clearly a call to cut rates soon, not the threat of a recession that would result if nothing was done. Powell may not resign, of course, before the end of his term (a little over a year from now), but he and the Federal Reserve’s seven-member board of other governors, may be quicker with nearest interest rate decisions to mitigate damage from tariffs, if inflation number for the last months would be cool enough for this before May 7 or June meetings.

If I am partially right in my expectations, so-called risky stock assets, aka growth stocks, will soon come to life. And they will shine brighter than gold, which will look too expensive above $3,500. Will it not soon be time to remember J. R. R. Tolkien's poem about Aragorn? "All that is gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost; The old that is strong does not wither, Deep roots are not reached by the frost..."

The extraordinary rally of the EURUSD appears to be nearing its end. Since early March, the pair has surged by 10.7%, reaching as high as 1.15200, with much of the momentum driven by sharp gains during Asian trading hours in April. However, the bullish drivers that fuelled this ascent now seem to be fading.

Trade tensions between the United States and China have entered a period of de-escalation, with both sides signalling a willingness to seek compromise. In response, U.S. Treasury yields have stabilised—an indicator of calmer market sentiment—which in turn has brought more balance to the currency markets. Any progress towards formal negotiations between Washington and Beijing could further challenge the recent weakness in the U.S. Dollar.

Technically, the EURUSD has now overshot its previous upside targets, suggesting that a deeper reversal could be on the horizon. The pair’s current levels may represent a turning point, with primary downside targets seen between 1.10500 and 1.11500.

Against this backdrop, a short position at current levels is being considered, with a stop-loss set at 1.19500 in case of renewed Euro strength.

EOS is down 1.0% to $0.6539 this week, lagging behind the broader cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is rising by 3.2% to $87,348. The decline appears largely technical, with no major fundamental developments currently weighing on the project.

Despite EOS’s subdued performance, the broader market may soon receive a boost from macroeconomic catalysts. U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, a move that could ease monetary conditions significantly. Whether through rate cuts or a potential shift toward quantitative easing, any dovish pivot by the Fed would likely inject fresh momentum into risk assets—including cryptocurrencies.