News and analysis

Trump's international trade poker, which I described to you in more detail about a week ago, is currently working in Trump's favour, as the MAGA leader is seemingly holding the threads of tariff war spirits firmly in his hands, including the Chinese silk thread, but at the same time it is not at all in favour of the American Dollar. Which, however, may also be a cure for America's huge trade deficits, by the way. But that's not what traders are thinking about, of course. The Greenback's strength against a basket of other major currencies dropped below 99.00, in terms of the US Dollar index futures (USDX), and this actually happened for the first time since April 2022. It doesn't look like a high-wire act, since there was already a similar situation of USDX weakness in 2017-2021, and no one's died because of it, but for many ordinary people it rather gave a great chance to earn more money on currency speculations.

Right now, the biggest gainer has been the Swiss Franc with its still quasi safe haven status, as USDCHF has plopped down by about 750 basis points, from 0.88 at the very beginning of the month to almost 0.80, where it was last seen in the summer of 2010, on the way out of the great financial crisis of that time. USD/JPY also skipped six large figures from 148 to 142 for less than 30 hours, which was greatly supported by much weaker than expected US inflation indicators on Thursday afternoon. A minor 2.4% annualized CPI rise vs 2.8% a month ago has revived hopes for another Federal Reserve's interest rates cut, although only 30% of futures traders are still betting on such a dovish action on May 7, according to the FedWatch tool. However, 65% investors feel that a 0.25% interest rates cut may happen in June to prevent threats of recession due to trade battles, while more signs of reduced price pressure will allow this mission to be accomplished by the financial regulator.

Gold price achieved its new all-time high around $3,250 per ounce on the weaker US Dollar and trade war escalations, nearly hitting my previous target price I wrote before. Meanwhile, EURUSD is also about to hit my supposed 1.15 target, peaking at just a 27 points distance below the landmark. The Euro rally was probably facilitated by President Xi Jinping's address to Spain’s prime minister today in the morning that China and the EU should join together in defending globalisation and opposing "unilateral acts of bullying", which was clearly against Trump’s tariff guidelines. In his first public comments on the point, Xi said there could be "no winners" in any trade war, while the EU had a key role to play in ensuring global economic stability. On the same day, French president Emmanuel Macron called Trump’s decision to delay reciprocal tariffs for 90 days a "fragile" pause. In his recent post on X, former Twitter, Macron argued that the "partial suspension of American tariffs for 90 days sends out a signal and leaves the door open for talks,", but "this pause is a fragile one," he said, noting that Trump’s 25% tariffs on European steel, aluminum, and cars remain intact, as well as a broader 10% tariff on all other products, and the halt only means 90 more days "of uncertainty for our businesses, on both sides of the Atlantic and beyond". Although Macron mentioned potential negotiations with the White House, the frightened money fleet moved from the US to Europe at a speedy pace. Well, fortune favours the brave, but for me, both persons are not strong enough against American trade pressure.

The squeezing of short positions against the Greenback in all major currencies already took place later when investors became more convinced that three consecutive attempts to decline of the S&P500 broad barometer to its 5,150-5,250 new support area each time faced hot purchases from those bottoms. In terms of the foreign exchange market developments, it may turn out that growth above 1.15 on EUR/USD is still possible, but far from being guaranteed. And so, trades in both directions within the price ranges of 150 to 200 points already look more reasonable. The next hypothetical targets like 1.18 simply may not be reached at all if deep buying on US stocks intensifies next week. In this scenario, a pullback to at least 1.12 on the Euro will be inevitable, with a simultaneous rebound in USD/CHF and USD/JPY. Spontaneous uncertainty in currency pairs may then return until the world trade situation stabilizes, as even the same EURUSD had returned to 1.0888 after the first spike to 1.1150 in the first three days after Trump's announcement on April 2.

IOTA (IOT) is climbing 9.5% this week to $0.1599, strongly outperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is up 5.0% to $82,870. The sharp recovery in digital assets comes amid a temporary pause in the U.S.-driven global tariff war, which has revived investor appetite for risk.

Markets are now speculating that the U.S. may soon enter trade negotiations with China, especially after signs of easing inflation. This could prompt the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate cuts—an unequivocal positive for the crypto sector.

Bitcoin is currently testing the critical resistance zone at $81,000–$83,000. A decisive breakout above this range could trigger a broader altcoin rally. For IOTA, this would mean a potential exit from its long-standing wedge formation, opening the path to key targets at $0.2000 and possibly $0.3000.

U.S. President Donald Trump was fair to market crowds, when he generously left a brief note on his Truth Social platform, which sounded like a perfect and timely trading signal. Early in the morning on Wednesday, April 9, Trump's message read: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well”. His usual charm routine "The USA will be bigger and better than ever before!” as an enhancement slightly confused investing minds, as he actually combined the rather abstract conclusion on economic bargains for America with a much more concrete asset purchases' agenda. However, Trump's undisguised call to buy and a well-known biblical saying, "according to your faith so shall it be", have made all the rally believers rewarded sooner than most of them expected.

Several hours later, it became very clear to everyone from Trump's more official announcement, why this was supposed to become such a great moment to buy U.S. stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 3,000 points, or 7.87% in one trading session, while the S&P 500 broad barometer of Wall Street added 9.5%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite soared 12.2% before the closing bell of the day. Needless to say that the bullish rally in equities resumed in such a powerful way to follow a 90-days pause for the so-called reciprocal tariffs between the U.S and more than 75 countries, previously considered as a mortal threat to international trade. The pause gesture included 46% for Vietnam, 20% for the EU, 24% for Japan, 32% for Taiwan etc. Before this day, both Donald Trump himself and some members of his team just commented that tariffs can be permanent, but it could still be negotiated as an option at some point. And now it has finally become evident even to market sceptics that the frightening sizes of some tariffs originally represented a starting position in order to make all others horse-trade for mutually suitable conditions.

Trump himself, and U.S .Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later, confirmed tariff pausing is needed as a relief to give enough time to negotiate thoroughly in case of each country. These formulations essentially ended the panicky negative effects of the trade war, making it clear once and for all that the whole tariff project was designed as a tool of negotiation, to make horse-trade and not a plain or self-sufficient tariff war. Trump's decision has slapped 125% tariffs on China alone, citing "the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets", a direct consequence of China's latest move to impose as much as 84% tariffs on US goods, up from the 34% previously announced.

if tariffs are low enough for all others, say, due to future agreements on changing the structure of trade turnover, but they are prohibitive for China, then such a situation will not last long, so that benefits for the entire world and a special severe law for China will also lead to nothing other than mutual concessions between Washington and Beijing in the end. The fact that China rejected this path from the very beginning did not go unnoticed by Trump, while no one else played hardball to receive proper treats already. The world has not united around China in an attempt of tough and rather futile resistance, but is calling Washington offices, looking for soft solutions. Trump is certainly not going to kill world economy. He is simply negotiating according to his own classic book on how to do it in order to achieve the result he needs. After shocking effects and panic, when the peak of a psychological influence is reached and tough arguments worked enough, he emphasizes the need for flexibility in decisions, mentioning that sometimes you have to “go under, over, or around a wall” to achieve the result.

And now we have the U-turn reversal pattern on all the three major U.S. indexes, as well as all major big techs. The stock rebound is more than convincing, because the reasoning behind it is strong. The bounce is still smaller, and the further share price dynamics is still under question only for Apple, which is more dependent than other flagship U.S. businesses on production chains in China and cannot assemble too expensive iPhones in America. For every other tech giant, the future will not be totally cloudless, of course, but the market bottom is almost certainly passed. And so, not only was it a great time to buy, believing in yesterday, but it is still a great time to buy so far, when the major stock recovery confirmed. If the rebound so far has "only" reached the 5,400 level in S&P 500 index terms, after a low near 4,800, then the minimum target can be set at 5,850, if not even above 6,000 again, when all the dust after a lasting negotiation period finally settles.

Ontology (ONT) is up by 10.3% this week to $0.1325, significantly outperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is adding 3.3% to $81,800. Despite the absence of any project-specific catalysts for ONT, the token’s price has surged in tandem with a general rebound in risk assets.

The rally was largely driven by macroeconomic relief after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause in the tariff escalation — excluding China — temporarily easing fears of a full-blown global trade war. This shift halted the broader crypto market sell-off and allowed assets like ONT to regain lost ground.

Bitcoin is currently facing stiff resistance in the $80,000–$82,000 range. A successful breakout from this level would likely fuel additional upside for altcoins, including ONT. From a technical perspective, ONT has room to climb toward $0.1500 in the short term, with $0.2000 as a more ambitious target if bullish momentum continues.