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11.08.2022

Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12^th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022

The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022

Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts.

28.12.2022

The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

24.11.2022

Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

MetadoroIn-house analytics

19.06.2024

Where is a Target Area for NVIDIA?

NVidia not only stays unsurpassed as the AI-fuelled rally bellwether, but it now gets the official title of the most valuable company on Wall Street. Indeed, NVIDIA's market cap reached $3.34 trillion to surpass the long-time leader Microsoft with its $3.32 trillion. This happened despite the owner of the Windows operating system and Azure cloud service set its all-time high above $450 per share this week. However, the pace of NVIDIA stock's growth is just amazing as the holder of more than 80% of the global AI chip market added another 35% since the last decade of May when it first time surpassed a $1000 barrier. Apple is nominally the third giant in terms of market cap, though it is lagging behind by "poor" $100 billion or so, as the iPhone maker's business rose by nearly 13% for the same monthly period.

NVidia's decision to make a ten-for-one stock split additionally boosted the retail investors' demand. The fact it now costs about $135 instead of $1350 is easing access for crowds, while reputable investment houses continue to raise their target prices for NVIDIA as well. In their note to clients, even a rather sceptical group of Stifel analysts lifted their price estimate for NVidia's share to $165 from a previous level at $114, taking into account longer-term "profitability metric", with expected fiscal 2027 EPS (earnings per share) of $4.10 vs nearly $1.28 in 2023. Stifel mentioned three risk factors like a "potential digestion period following several quarters of significant investment", a possible tightening of US trade restrictions on technology shipment to China and "general macro events". Producing critical components for AI models like ChatGPT and its analogues by other giant developers may pave the path for "near-to-medium term opportunities" due to "high performance computing, hyperscale and cloud data centre, and enterprise and edge computing", they admitted.

Meanwhile, another well-known financial advising company, Rosenblatt Securities, even dared to pull their NVidia price target from $140 to $200 per share, a new Wall Street high. “We see NVidia's Hopper, Blackwell, and Rubin series [of next generation chips and graphic processing units computing platforms] driving "value" market share in one of Silicon Valley's most successful silicon/platform product cycles,” while the "real story is in the software that improves the hardware capabilities", they commented, probably betting on a more speedy growth of software aspects in the overall computing technology sales. Therefore, Rosenblatt sees NVidia's possible achievement of $5.00 EPS or even more by the end of 2026.

We adhere to a more or less balancing targets between the avid optimists and moderate sceptics, basing on the middle between $160 and $200, i.e. in the range between $175 and $180, also bearing in mind the nearest area in the vicinity of $150 as an intermediate short-term goal, which will almost certainly be achieved this summer.

The triad of NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple advances towards next sky-high levels like having seven league boots on their feet. This also helped the major S&P 500 barometer of Wall Street to come right up to a widely discussed milestone at 5,500 points. And this is unlikely the limit. However, betting on the brightest representatives of the AI segment still looks like a more promising option compared to purchasing the S&P 500 futures right at the moment.

NVDA

Rafael Quintana Martinez

Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/

19.06.2024

IOTA is Likely to Continue Down after a Break

IOTA (IOT) plummeted by 10.0% to $0.1710 this week, slightly recovering from a 22.0% slump to $0.1480 earlier today, marking the lowest price since October 24, 2023. This sharp decline may indicate a shift in the trend to the downside, with prices nearing the crucial support at $0.1000. If IOTA falls below this critical level, panic selling could drive prices even lower.

A timely support came from the SEC, which officially closed its investigation against Ethereum 2.0, declaring that ETH is not a security. However, this positive news for the broader crypto market is not enough to reverse the downward trajectory of IOTA. The token continues to slide towards $0.1000, and without a significant improvement in market sentiment, it may breach this crucial support and continue its decline.

IOTUSD

Bash

18.06.2024

The Nasdaq Persistently Drip Through the 20,000 Rock

Nasdaq 100 (USTech100) peaked at nearly 18,900 while S&P 500 (US500) futures contracts retraced to 5,200 only recently, through late May. Brushing up on my overview of the Wall Street sentiment at that moment, I saw an initial target price in the direct vicinity of 20,000 points for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, also considering 5,500 points as the next reasonable target for the broad market index. Now both milestones are almost reached, as today's intraday climbing stopped at only 11.2 points and 16.4 points from their round top figures. It's high time to take profit (this option is better suited for short-term speculators), or to set new goals (for mid-term investors like me). I would define and restrict my realistic dreams by 5,700 for US500 and 22,500 for USTech100, respectively.

It doesn't have to be a dramatic breakthrough above 20,000, but would rather resemble water dripping through the soil and rocks. Yet, I feel this is only a matter of time and a short wait during the three summer months, maybe September too. Easing inflation pressure in the form of U.S. consumer prices reading at 0.0% from 0.3% in monthly indications and 3.3% YoY (from 3.4% in April) probably mattered more to the market conditions than the Federal Reserve's projections with one single interest rate cut before the end of 2024. Both news were released last Wednesday, on June 12, ultimately composing a winning combination for Wall Street bulls.

Perhaps the market believes that central bankers are simply too shy to declare their real intentions in advance but they will be ready for changing a more-hawkish-than-dovish stance in autumn. Another opportunity is that the markets didn't have a care in what the Fed actually says, as most Lilliput private investors in the crowd led by institutional Gullivers are too anxious to get rid of cash by transforming it into AI-related growth assets.

After a 10-for-1 NVIDIA stock split, the global chip leader's value rose by another 10% to above $133 (formerly $1330) per share. Other AI favourites of mine are trying to match the tone, with Broadcom (AVGO) just skyrocketing above $1800 this month, Dell jumping by nearly 7.5% in one trading session, Micron Technology (MU) also gaining more than 6% today (and soaring more than 25% since the beginning of June), and Qualcomm adding nearly 11% only for the last ten days. I mentioned all the three companies several times in my posts, which would be enough for the topic. Meanwhile, a collaboration between Microsoft's Azure and Oracle on cloud platforms and data centre development is the other pole forming the point of application of force for the investing crowds. Both giants are refreshing their all-time highs to help this market earth revolving in the same, and prevailingly bullish, direction.

USTech100

Rafael Quintana Martinez

18.06.2024

ONT is Likely to Continue Down

Ontology (ONT) prices dropped by 15.4% to $0.2000 this week, slightly recovering from early losses of 22.2% when the token hit $0.1850, the lowest since October 27, 2023. The support at $0.2000 has held the token from further decline, but it may not withstand the downside pressure for long. The entire crypto market is in red: Bitcoin (BTC) lost 2.2% to $65,200, and Ethereum (ETH) is down by 5.2% to $3410. Altcoins are also declining by 8-15%.

Global crypto pessimism started after a report of spot Bitcoin ETF fund outflows of $600 million and a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve. Ontology has not generated any positive news to support the token. All eyes are now on the $0.2000 support level, which has allowed ONT to recover five times before. In a negative downside scenario, the token could fall further by 50.0% to $0.1000.

ONTUSD