Currency markets are entering a summer lull, and the EURUSD appears to be losing momentum after a strong rally. Since March, the pair has surged by 13.8% to reach 1.18290, with each correction growing increasingly shallow — a classic sign of exhaustion. Technical analysis supports this view: the EURUSD recently hit a key trend resistance near 1.18200 and promptly pulled back to 1.16680 on July 7 before staging a minor rebound.

Given these developments, this seems like an ideal moment to consider a short position, aiming for a target zone of 1.15000–1.15500. While the downside may seem limited relative to current prices, the typically muted summer volatility makes large swings less likely — making even modest moves worth capturing. A stop-loss at 1.19700 provides a reasonable risk buffer should the pair break above resistance.