Micron Could Rise Into September
Micron Technology surprised Wall Street by sharing its very positive business forecast on August 11, even though its next quarterly report is scheduled only on September 25. The fundamentals and the technical patterns on daily, weekly and monthly charts look like the semiconductor maker could see steady growth until then. I would say that a retest over $150 is inevitable, even assuming some new price records for Micron share price during this short period.
Micron is no more a skunk at the tech garden party (as I once described its then-sad and corrective mood before Christmas). It noticeably perked up back already in early summer, when Micron share price quickly recovered to the $120+ area as the company was going to release its record-ever quarter in terms of both profit and sales. On June 25, the actual figures of $1.91 per share on revenue of $9.3 billion more than justified and even exceeded the crowd's average expectations of $1.59 per share on $8.85 billion. However, the forward guidance by Micron's own managing team for the rest of the year were more or less cautious, and so a brave rally that time stopped at $130, followed by another month of sideways move. The price touched a new strong support around $105 on August 1, being rather flat or slightly rebounding right up to the present moment.
Micron shares have soared to knock at its technical resistance territory as the strong outlook has given markets the only one missing piece to make the whole bullish puzzle ready. Giving Micron a fair valuation looks natural once the company itself is no longer shying. It cited a surge in orders for Micron's high-bandwidth memory chips, thanks to their intensive data-processing capabilities. Other giant techs are scaling up their commitment to artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, which lead to growing demand to Micron's production, so that the company itself now officially expects increasing current quarterly sales up to $11.2 billion, plus or minus $100 million, which is much better compared to Micron's previously modest forecast of $10.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million. Micron projected its next EPS reading at $2.85 per share, plus or minus $0.07, vs its earlier expectation of $2.50, plus or minus $0.15.
At the same time, they substantially raised adjusted gross margin inner projections from 42%, plus or minus 1%, to 44.5%, plus or minus 0.5%, due to improved pricing for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips. Marginality is just a potentially troubling point for the memory chip market, so updating forecasts in this particular field is very important. By a curious coincidence, Reuters just exclusively reported the same day that Nvidia's supplier SK Hynix said the market for specialized AI memory chips may grow on average as much as 30% per year until 2030.
Potentially large levies on chips imported into the US could damage the market growth but Donald Trump promised the tariff will not bite manufacturers inside the country or even those businesses who have committed to do so. Well, only two months ago Micron said it is going to expand its US investments by $30 billion, totalling $200 billion. So they seem to be safe from tariff attacks as well. My conclusion is that I see no reason not to invest in Micron now, even after its stock price jumped 4.5% above $124 a share at one intraday point and ended this Monday's regular session with a more than 3% daily surplus.
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