• Metadoro
  • Products
  • News and analysis

News and analysis

Check market insights shared by our community members
11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

Industrial Design and Tourism: Autodesk

Autodesk is mostly associated with industrial design. The company has been developing industrial design solutions for many years. Professional schools are educating students on Autodesk software products. The company has successfully adopted to the modern realities and introduced the subscription payment business model. This move has made its services readily available. It has become accessible to those who would not allow for one-time license fees for a long period of time.

The demand for the company’s products is sustainable, business margins are improving, while net cash flows allow for the buy-back of its own shares. The company conducted a $464 million buy-back in the financial Q1 2022. This is certainly not enough for stock prices to grow at the same pace as its younger peers. This is more a value stock that may help to survive in turbulent times. The return to $250 per share is expected, but no super profit should be considered.

The company’s revenues grew 18% year-on year to $1.17 billion for the Q1 2022. The major business segment Architecture, Engineering, and Construction that is responsible for 45% of the total revenues has reported that it signed its second largest ever enterprise agreement with an infrastructure company. A new product Bridge has been launched targeting the subcontractor audience. The suspension of the company’s operations in Russia would cost $115 million per year, but it has caused minor damage to the company as it has almost $5 billion annual revenues.

The operational margin grew to 34%, and operational profit went up by 42% year-on-year to $397 million in the Q1 2022. Free cash flows rose by 34% year-on-year to $422 million.

276
Value Stocks would help us to Survive a Possible Recession: HP Inc.

HPQ stocks have lost 15% since the beginning of 2022, much better that younger and popular tech companies that lost 40-50% over the same period. More interesting, this year became the first in the company’s history when its stock yield outperformed its peers. The most attractive for HP is its financial performance as its forward P/E ratio was at 8.6, which is much better than other companies . Shareholders are getting regular dividends with the annual dividend yield at 2.7%. So, why are HP stock prices dropping?

The main generator of money is the personal computer business. The sales of personal computers dropped by 17% year-on-year in the Q2 2022. However, the revenue from this segment rose by 9% year-on-year to $11.5 billion thanks to cutting costs and rising retail prices on personal computers. Corporates are buying more computers and boosting the demand by 18% year-on-year, while sales to individuals dropped by 6%.

Printers are responsible only for one third of the company’s revenues and 50% of its profit. This segment has been contracting for some years and the last quarter was not an exclusion as revenues dropped by 7% year-on-year to $5 billion. This drop may continue as more companies are no longer conducting their business practices on paper. Moreover, public presentations are getting more digital as they are delivered and distributed online. This is worrying considering the high margin of the segment.

HP stocks may not perform to the upside aggressively as they are more appropriate to shelter turbulent times. HP operational profit is almost the same compared to Q2 2021 - $1.444 billion compared to $1.443 billion, while the operational margin is down to 8.8% compared to 9.1% last year as printer sales are dropping. The company continues its buyback operations in Q2 2022 when it spent around $1 billion to purchase 27.4 million of its own stocks. These efforts cannot last long considering rising stock prices and declining profits. Thus, HP stocks are unlikely to beat peaks reached at the beginning of this year.

318
Value Stocks would help us to Survive a Possible Recession: Oracle

Oracle is one of the important players in the technology sector. Its shares have lost 25% since the beginning of 2022. Its business is much more stable and cannot grow by double digits as some other younger peers in the sector. However, the company’s efforts towards developing cloud-based solutions are strong and stable financial results are prompting elevated demand for ORCL stocks as a safe haven asset.

The company has a diversified product portfolio from software to the management of financial activities, sales, and supply chains to infrastructure solutions like Oracle Autonomous Database. The company is on its way to transforming its business model to cloud-based solutions on the subscription basis.

The financial Q4 2022 that ended May 31 showed that cloud segment revenues rose by 19% year-on-year to $2.9 billion. Some businesses have performed even better. Fusion Cloud posted revenues up by 20% as the company is taking over in the health information technology sphere beating its peers like Kronos, Workday and SAP. Management is pushing up the development of the data management system MySQL that  processes transactions seven times faster than same solution AWS Aurora from Amazon.

Oracle corporation management is expecting 2022 operational margin at 45-46%, that is very much above other software corporations and most importantly above the prepandemic level of Oracle itself when the operational margin reached 44%. The company pays regular dividends. It has also launched a buyback program to get its shares back at discount prices now. During the last four quarters Oracle has spent more than $16 billion for buybacks and may continue to spend money on this as its stock prices are going down.

The mid-term target price for ORCL stock at $78 is intact.

358
Not Every Tech Stocks are Equally Strong: SAP

SAP stocks have lost 30% since the beginning of 2022. The German tech company develops enterprise software and solutions to manage business operations. For example, one of its services can be used  to manage all business travel financial activities and related spending. In other words, it is quite a routine company with  a stable and strong cash flow. Once SAP software is installed on a corporate level it is hard to do without it as it is deeply integrated into the business core processes. Moreover, SAP is restructuring its business model around its subscription base and this will allow for cash flows to be even more predictable and balanced through the financial year. Such a model is in favourable to Wall Streel investors.

The war in Ukraine has a 300-million-euro negative effect on SAP business, and it is only a marginal 1% of the overall revenue base for the company, while its dominance in the ERP segment is secure. The revenues added 11% year-on-year to 7.08 euros in Q1 2022. The revenues grew by 6% in  Q4 2021.

The company has made some successful M&A deals, acquiring Qualtrics, a cloud-based subscription software platform, that delivered +48% revenue in Q1 2022. This company had a gross margin above 90% in 2021 while SAP’s gross margin was at 70% for the same year.

SAP management promised to triple its cloud-based business by 2025, and boost revenues to 22 billion euros, while operational profit is forecasted to grow by 40% from the current 8.4 billion euros. This is a very extensive growth for the company that has a high P/E ratio at 17. The company may not perform very high growth rates as its younger tech sector peers, but it may certainly recover to new all-time highs in the long-term perspective. However, the sector may require several quarters to recover, and the recovery would be headed by such reliable companies as SAP with a low risk profile.

378
249

Join our community

Share your professional and amateur observations, exchange experiences, anticipate developments

Category
All
Stocks
Crypto
Etf
Commodities
Indices
Currencies
Energies
Metals
Instruments
Author
All
Metadoro
Contributors