News and analysis

This is the first moment since 2021 for the U.S. automaker Ford came in the spotlight again, as its shares sharply rose by nearly 10% since the end of June, reaching 11-month highs. A little history might help to understand what's happening. In 1913, Ford launched the world's very first automobile conveyor line at its Michigan plant. Although conveyor line technology had been used before in some other industries, it was Ford that first applied it to mass production of vehicles. This invention revolutionized the auto industry, significantly reducing assembly time and cost. Once the automotive capital of the world, thanks to Ford, General Motors and Chrysler, the Detroit region of the U.S. has since fallen into decline in the 21st century. Ford has been involved in projects to revive manufacturing in Detroit, but without much success because the U.S. employees are more expensive than in the Asian region. While Ford Focus compacts and other models have consistently ranked among the top 10 popular cars in Europe, financial returns have been weak in terms of profitability over recent years. During the COVID pandemic, the company has emphasized its plans on electric cars making - as a result, its market value had tripled in 2021 to historical peaks around $24 per share. However, by 2022, all this bullish momentum was completely lost, and so the company's shares have since languished within a dull range of $9.50 to $13, with rare price spikes up to $15.

Ford shares even reset its 5-year anti record low at $8.44 per share this April. But Ford is now trading around $12 again. And yes, it is still within the same price range just mentioned above, but there is an encouraging nuance: a clearly accelerating price dynamic of the last two weeks is boosted by the news. Ford said on July 8, it believes its $3 billion Michigan electric vehicle battery plant, which is almost 60% complete, will qualify for recently adopted production tax credits after a big and beautiful tax and budget bill revised the rules. Before that, in May and June, Ford warned over that the Republican government of the US could terminate company's tax credits, which supported the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries using Chinese technology, according to the previous Congress version of legislation. But the juridical environment has changed, and now Ford's plant in Michigan, which is slated to employ 1,700 workers is reportedly "on track to qualify for the production tax credit", the company's management noted, adding that is "a win for customers" and also "a win for American competitiveness".

The Alliance for Automobile Manufacturers, a group representing General Motors, Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen and other world leaders, praised the final version of the bill for revising its language on a battery production tax credit to preserve "auto-related advanced manufacturing across the country and prohibited Chinese companies from eligibility." This may offset slowing demand for electric vehicles. Before that news, Ford's plant has attracted scrutiny from the government and congressmen because of its ties to the Chinese partners. The new legislation ends a $7,500 tax credit for buying or leasing new electric vehicles on September 30, as well as a $4,000 tax credit for used EV cars. This law also cancels penalties for failing to meet the so-called corporate average fuel economy shortfalls to make building more traditional gas-powered vehicles easier.

Ford's recent bets on electric cars failed. Its fully-electric models faced a sales decline of around 30% YoY, with elevated price tags being only one of the reasons behind it. Ford's total sales added more than 14% during the same annual period. And now Ford's battery production will most likely make a significant contribution to the payback, since it retains benefits. Ford's focus on traditional vehicles could make this segment forward. An auto-loan interest deduction may also increase Ford's strength for its coastal states' clients, its CEOs commented. We feel that the indicated favourable fundamental background for the business will force Ford shares to test the upper range around $14.5 or higher, at least, which already means a profit potential of 22% vs the current price below $12. This profitable result can be strengthened in case of a break through the $15 technical resistance barrier. Ford shares will rise either this summer or never this year.

Synthetix (SNX) is rising by 6.4% to $0.607 this week, strongly outperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.7% to $111,168. The crypto market has firmly shifted to an upward trajectory after Bitcoin broke through the key resistance at $108,000–110,000 and set a new all-time high at $112,021. With BTC now aiming for the next target at $118,000–120,000, another 7.0% higher, altcoins are gaining momentum.

SNX is also benefiting from a positive catalyst: Upbit, a major crypto exchange, has removed its cautionary label on the token. This led to a sharp 124% increase in trading volume, signalling renewed investor interest. With this momentum, SNX appears poised to break out of its prolonged flat range around $0.500. If bullish sentiment holds, the token could be heading toward the $1.000 mark.

Harmony (ONE) is rising by 3.38% to $0.00977 this week, outperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is down 0.50% to $108,655. The token remains precariously balanced near its 2021 lows, trading just below the key $0.01000 support level. A drop below the June low of $0.00797 could open the way for a deeper decline toward $0.00500 — levels last seen during the 2020 pandemic crash.

Despite current weakness, ONE could find support from broader market momentum. If Bitcoin manages to break through the $108,000–110,000 resistance zone, Harmony may receive a lift alongside other altcoins.

Amazon (AMZN) retreated 1.85% to $219.33 in the first Amazon Prime Day trade session on July 8. This was a stark market's response to initial consumer spending data in early hours of Prime Day sales, when revenue numbers showed -14% YoY. This fact could question the relentless uptrend from $165 since April 21. Shares of the world's largest e-commerce platform have climbed more than 35% over the last 11 weeks. Remember that I had put Amazon as one of my top picks in April, despite tariff threats, as Amazon's ability to attract investors was far exceeding the upside potential of Apple, for example. Those assumptions turned out to be entirely adequate for the moment, so that Amazon price recently achieved all my intermediate targets. Will I change my opinion about the company's future prospects now? Of course, it would be a mistake if I would say as if the first day of Amazon's annual sales was actually not a disappointment. Indeed, it was. But it's worth knowing at least a couple of important nuances.

First, Amazon Prime Day 2025 lasts four full days this time instead of just the usual two. This alone could ensure a record-breaking result overall during this promotion period, which ends on July 11. Prime Day, being the global shopping event, is evolving. It was launched in 2015, i.e. 10 years ago, as a 24-hour "gig". In 2017, it went up to 30 hours, then to 36 hours in 2018. In 2019, Prime Day became a two-day "bonanza". Now it is twice as long, which should inevitably stretch out the effect over time. Shoppers now have more time to be selective about their choice of products, rather than jumping on the first to take it on as soon as possible. They are trying to find the best offers. Thus, by the end of this de facto Prime Week, Amazon's overall result will be much better. Adobe Analytics forecasts a record $23.8 billion in sales in Prime Day 2025 spending from July 8 to 11. That would represent a 28.4% growth from last year's achievement, which was already very high. This is going to become an equivalent to two Black Fridays, which brought $10.8 billion to Amazon in 2024.

Second, competing promotions are also here, right on the same dates. Walmart (WMT) just kicked off its "Walmart Deals" on July 8 and extended its event from four days to six. Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY) and Kohl's (KSS) did it in the same manner. This again means that you don't count your chickens before they hatch. Comparing Amazon's result with rivals will be the crucial point, and it will be possible only next week. I would therefore assume that the bottom of the current downward correction may occur sometime this Wednesday or at least before Friday, and it's unlikely that the market may postpone new buying opportunities in Amazon any longer. The rollback itself, and its bottom, will be short-lived, and most likely not lower than $210, or at least not much lower than this mark.

Third, it's worth noting that the extension of Prime Day dates gives Amazon more chances to increase its profit on advertising, which is clearly the fastest-growing segment of Amazon sales business. Let me add here that the cloud data segment is growing even much faster for Amazon than its e-commerce part. Cloud sales are doing excellent, according to last quarter's release. Cloud gains are robust, not depending at all on any Prime Day results and will further support the stock.

After all, there are long-term statistics that is behind it all. Historically, Amazon shares gained more than 2% on average in the week after Prime Day and over 4% for any 6-week period after the event. Average price target for Amazon from Wall Street is now at $242.42, and I personally bet on even $250 to $260 before the end of 2025. If we are lucky enough to buy at least around $210, that's $40 to $50 in terms of our gain per share, or 19% to 24% return. This game is worth the candle!