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23.01.2025
Ontology Is Sliding Towards $0.2000

Ontology (ONT) is down 2.3% this week, trading at $0.2176, in line with the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) has declined 2.0% to $101,632. While the new U.S. administration has made some strides toward fairer crypto regulation, Donald Trump has remained silent on the highly anticipated issue of adding Bitcoin to U.S. federal reserves.

Market speculation is rampant, with figures like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggesting Bitcoin could surge to $700,000 per coin if sovereign wealth funds begin accumulating. Other forecasts predict Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end. While such projections could foster optimism, the lack of decisive action or announcements regarding U.S. crypto reserves is weighing heavily on the market.

For Ontology, the situation remains bearish. Having breached the critical support at $0.2500 last week, the token is now approaching the $0.2000 level. A failure to provide clear evidence or statements about U.S. federal crypto reserve plans could see ONT fall even further, breaching the $0.2000 mark and deepening its losses.

14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

10.01.2025
Dollar Strength Is a Given

The very first slice of statistical data on business activity from the United States this year reaffirmed an almost clear irrelevance and even potential hurtfulness of any immediate steps towards further lowering interest rates on U.S. Dollar-nominated loans from a purely economic point of view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), based on polls compiled from executives in over 400 industrial companies in late December, came out at 49.3 points vs 48.4 a month ago and 48.2 in average analyst estimates. This showed that a slowdown was occurring at a slower or even insignificant pace, keeping inflation risks on the table, especially when the price component increased from 50.3 to 52.5 with a similar rate of increase in new orders. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI came out at 54.1 on Tuesday, compared to 53.5 in analyst polls and 52.1 a month ago, with a contribution of business activity components even jumped to a surprising 58.2 against declining from 57.2 in November to only 53.7 in December.

In other words, the economy is not cooling, and is rather in a positive acceleration, which in turn may lead to a recovery in wage rises and therefore to higher demand pressure, which may be reflected soon in higher producer purchase and output prices. Doubts of the major U.S. financial regulator are understandable at this point after its triple rate cut from 5.5% to 4.5% in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will now pay closer attention not only to consumer inflation measures, but also to producer prices (PPI), which is just going to be released on coming Tuesday, January 14. And so, this will become the next reference point in the further U.S. Dollar’s trajectory. The Greenback index (DX) is picking up steam since reaching a new record high for the last two years at 109.35, with its temporary pullbacks being limited by a 107.50 support area that previously served as a strong multi-month technical resistance.

In this context, the British Pound (GBPUSD) updated its lows since November 2023 to touch 1.2237 on January 9, EURUSD feels quite comfortable within a range between 1.02 and 1.0450, which corresponds to its 2-year bottom, and having a bias towards a possible further decline. The Aussie (AUDUSD) is one-step away from taking the path for a breakthrough to a quite unknown territory of its 5-year lows that were last time recorded when the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 happened.

A varying extent of the American Dollar strength is surely data dependent as the market community is eagerly waiting for the U.S. job data later today. The average expectations on new Nonfarm Payrolls is just a bit above 150,000 vs 227,000 in early December 2024 and nearly 160,000 for the previous four months on average. However, any value close to 150,000, plus or minus 20,000, or any higher number, may be considered as another positive sign for the Greenback, following the ADP national employment report which contained only 122,000 on Wednesday. The oppressive nature of average hourly wage in its dynamics, +0.4% each time from September to December, also matters.

The protective quality of investing more funds into the U.S. Dollar and U.S. bonds against tariff threats is switched on anyway, based on more than a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates on pause at its January 29 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials never go against a well-established market consensus, when it is almost unanimous, for not to rock the boat of relative market trend stability. The central bankers' reluctance to shift the Fed fund rates lower before mid-March, if not early May, continues to play in favour of short-term speculative transactions on the foreign exchange market, bearing in mind all the listed currency instruments. Some intraday volatility may take place, especially in the case of appearing an abnormal two-digit non-farm value, but not a change in overall direction.

How to Choose Cheap Perspective Stocks: Beyond Meat

The mission of Beyond Meat is to reduce meat consumption and to improve people’s health and environment. This is the narrative management is using. However, the main reason for its clients to buy artificial meat is to taste something new, and not to accept vegetarian culture. So, the company’s profit, that was rising during booming times, is now deteriorating amid rising costs, falling real wages, blistering inflation, and reluctance of the public to spend money on gastronomic specialties. Beyond Met’s management decided to reduce prices in order to keep its clients satisfied. But the situation has become even worse as revenues started to decrease while margins are stalling. The Q4 2022 revenues are down by 20% year-on-year to $79.9 million sending gross margin to a negative -3.7%. The company has only $309 million in cash on its balance sheet with more than $1.13 billion of convertible debt. The company “burned” $309.7 million of net cash flows in 2022, and is heading straight towards the need for additional borrowings, which will be difficult and costly to get amid high interest rates and tight borrowing conditions. Sometimes market turbulence can lead a company to a collapse if it is already on the brink of serious financial disorder. So, even a crash of the former hyping unicorn would hardly surprise investors.  

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How to Choose Cheap Perspective Stocks: Zoom

Zoom stocks dropped by 85% off their peaking prices and are unlikely to recover to these peaks any time soon. But the risk around profit ratio seems to be very tempting. The company is generating high profit with net cash on the balance of $5.4 billion, which is above 25% of its current market cap. The company’s operational margin is at 36.2%. The company has spent $1 billion on a buyback, which is not very impressive. But management is concentrating on development, and not on rewarding investors now.  Management expects revenues of $4.455 billion for the full-year FY 2023, which is only 1.3% above the 2022 level. So, Zoom has no more steam to astonish investors with rampant growth figures, but it does still generates quite remarkable financial results with estimated non-GAAP income of $1.626 billion in 2023, beating consensus by 5%. The company is planning to improve margins further, including staff cuts by 15% this year. The major of the risk comes from its rival Microsoft Teams. Zoom’s management is seen to be focused to continue product development and investments while taking leadership as a reliable and outstanding product among corporate clients.  

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
GBP Is Set for a Rendezvous with a Triple Top Pattern

GBPUSD touched the resistance level at 1.24 for the third time since last December. There is no sell signal for the GBPUSD, but we may expect one over the coming days. As it is well known that  one the most popular candlestick patterns, the “absorption,” gives us around a 35-40% chance that signals will become active. It’s one of the easiest patterns to recognise as it consists of two candlesticks where the second one is larger than the previous one and it is visually clear that the second one seems to absorb the first one. When black candlesticks absorb white ones, it is at this moment that GBPUSD should be sold. Another indicator to be tracked is the 200 EMA on 5-15-30 minutes chart. Candles should go below this moving average and remain there to signal a downside move to 1.20. In another scenario, the price is likely to bounce above the 1.24 price and climb towards 1.26.

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Euro Is on the Crossroads

I believe the banking instability has raised fears about a broader financial crisis and this has resulted in a significant shift in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy expectations. This factor is the most powerful driver for the EURUSD. We can’t be positive about forecasts predicting that the Dollar will go down or up because of this. That’s why it’s important to pay attention when the Euro will approaches the 1.09-1.10 area for the second time this year. There are no short signals so far, but technical resistance and volatility may send the pair down to 1.06. If the pair jumps above 1.10, it may continue to surge up to 1.15 over the coming weeks.

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