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14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

06.02.2025
Perfect As the Enemy of Good

Here is the problem, which is nearly at a primary school level. A simple logical puzzle. A shopping street has two grocery stores. One of the stores is much more popular than the other. But both shops are full of customers every day. So both shops are raking in money. Sales output of a more popular store roughly doubled over the past year, from $14.5 billion to $30.8 billion - oh, yes, it's a very big shop - which led to tripling of its market value. Meanwhile, sales in the second store have already grown by 69%, albeit by its lower standards, namely from $2.3 billion to $3.9 billion. Please draw a conclusion, by what percentage the market value of the second store could increase, assuming that professional appraisers are rather objective. It seems ridiculous, but the correct answer is that the second store's market value lost 35% within the same year, and it even dropped by 50% from its peak price of the last spring. Holy Cow! That was a story of some failed expectations of mine. Since the big store is, of course, Nvidia, and the small one (and also, in fact, quite a prosperous marketplace) is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). And their goods are not essential food, but chips for artificial intelligence (AI) related data centers, which are also in high demand.

Moreover, AMD shares reportedly tumbled 10% additionally on February 5, only because the firm's AI chip revenue failed to be exactly in line with elevated projections of Wall Street analyst pool, which somehow bet on a 80% pace of data centre growth to as much as $4.15 billion YoY. Okay, one might say that Nvidia's "store" sells 8 times more chips that everyone needs. And even remember that Nvidia chips are of better quality, that Nvidia occupies about 80% of global chip market share. Again, Nvidia's last quarter will be finally counted only by February 26, when Nvidia's financial report is scheduled, a month later than in AMD's case. Like most large investment houses, here I have provided growth metrics regarding the major data center segment, which is a proxy for the AI playground, where AMD struggles to compete with Nvidia. Well, AMD CEO Lisa Su admitted that her company's data center sales in the current quarter may go down about 7% from the just-ended quarter, but this announcement was exactly in line with an overall expected decline. Is it really such a big deal that AMD shareholders have to experience pain from seeing their chosen stock falling to a 14-month low, with further need for a 100% rally just to match last year's record prices?

The same Lisa Su declined to give the particular forecast for the company's AI chips, but she said that AMD expects "tens of billions" of dollars in sales "in the next couple of years". And I see no reason to doubt her words. AMD CEO added that the firm is now working to compete against Broadcom (AVGO) in collaborating with its customers like Meta and Microsoft to create custom AI chips for their purposes, as Broadcom helps its partners to design their own chips, contrary to mostly "off-the-shelf" processors by AMD and Nvidia. They know their weaknesses as opportunities for strengthening to work in that direction, so what's wrong with the market's adequacy of perception? Perfect Nvidia is the enemy of good AMD, according to the crowd's opinion. Besides AI chips, AMD is also one of the largest providers of personal computer chips. Until recently, this point was generally the source of their main income. Consumers continue to buy new PCs, which also can handle generative AI tasks, by the way.

Actually, AMD has been the only loss-making company in my large portfolio for a long time, so it even makes me smile now. At least, because it is only a matter of time before AMD's pogo stick ultimately uncoils to come loose. Record annual revenue and earnings have to entail recovering to record market value eventually. I am not sure this will happen in the first half of 2025, even though AMD forecasts its revenue rise between $6.8 billion and $7.4 billion for the current quarter, with the market consensus midpoint being slightly lower at $7.04 billion. If you don't believe me then analysts at Stifel are of the opinion that AMD is well positioned for AI compute and "It is likely" that some of its customers "are waiting for 325/350 systems, which should drive a much stronger second half". Again, the median estimate by the Wall Street's analyst pool was now declined to about $150 per share vs $166.5 before the last downside move, yet even $150 sounds much better compared to $112 on closing price this Wednesday or an intraday low at $106.56 during the last trading session. Anyway, there is a strong technical and psychological support zone near the round figure of $100, from where AMD stock had begun its cool ascension in late 2023.

09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

10.01.2025
Dollar Strength Is a Given

The very first slice of statistical data on business activity from the United States this year reaffirmed an almost clear irrelevance and even potential hurtfulness of any immediate steps towards further lowering interest rates on U.S. Dollar-nominated loans from a purely economic point of view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), based on polls compiled from executives in over 400 industrial companies in late December, came out at 49.3 points vs 48.4 a month ago and 48.2 in average analyst estimates. This showed that a slowdown was occurring at a slower or even insignificant pace, keeping inflation risks on the table, especially when the price component increased from 50.3 to 52.5 with a similar rate of increase in new orders. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI came out at 54.1 on Tuesday, compared to 53.5 in analyst polls and 52.1 a month ago, with a contribution of business activity components even jumped to a surprising 58.2 against declining from 57.2 in November to only 53.7 in December.

In other words, the economy is not cooling, and is rather in a positive acceleration, which in turn may lead to a recovery in wage rises and therefore to higher demand pressure, which may be reflected soon in higher producer purchase and output prices. Doubts of the major U.S. financial regulator are understandable at this point after its triple rate cut from 5.5% to 4.5% in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will now pay closer attention not only to consumer inflation measures, but also to producer prices (PPI), which is just going to be released on coming Tuesday, January 14. And so, this will become the next reference point in the further U.S. Dollar’s trajectory. The Greenback index (DX) is picking up steam since reaching a new record high for the last two years at 109.35, with its temporary pullbacks being limited by a 107.50 support area that previously served as a strong multi-month technical resistance.

In this context, the British Pound (GBPUSD) updated its lows since November 2023 to touch 1.2237 on January 9, EURUSD feels quite comfortable within a range between 1.02 and 1.0450, which corresponds to its 2-year bottom, and having a bias towards a possible further decline. The Aussie (AUDUSD) is one-step away from taking the path for a breakthrough to a quite unknown territory of its 5-year lows that were last time recorded when the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 happened.

A varying extent of the American Dollar strength is surely data dependent as the market community is eagerly waiting for the U.S. job data later today. The average expectations on new Nonfarm Payrolls is just a bit above 150,000 vs 227,000 in early December 2024 and nearly 160,000 for the previous four months on average. However, any value close to 150,000, plus or minus 20,000, or any higher number, may be considered as another positive sign for the Greenback, following the ADP national employment report which contained only 122,000 on Wednesday. The oppressive nature of average hourly wage in its dynamics, +0.4% each time from September to December, also matters.

The protective quality of investing more funds into the U.S. Dollar and U.S. bonds against tariff threats is switched on anyway, based on more than a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates on pause at its January 29 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials never go against a well-established market consensus, when it is almost unanimous, for not to rock the boat of relative market trend stability. The central bankers' reluctance to shift the Fed fund rates lower before mid-March, if not early May, continues to play in favour of short-term speculative transactions on the foreign exchange market, bearing in mind all the listed currency instruments. Some intraday volatility may take place, especially in the case of appearing an abnormal two-digit non-farm value, but not a change in overall direction.

14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Meta Could Score 18% in the Next Few Months

Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has been trading sideways within the $550-600 range since late September, underperforming the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, which has gained 6.0% during the same period.

While META shares remain within an ascending channel, they are currently resting at the support of the uptrend. Historically, each time the stock reached this level, it rebounded upwards by 15-18%. Consequently, the share price is likely to rise to $650-670 over the coming months. I plan to open a long trade at $550-570, targeting a potential upside of $185. A stop-loss could be placed below recent lows at $480.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Ontology May Gain Up to 12.0%

Ontology (ONT) is up 4.2% this week, trading at $0.2675, outperforming the broader market as Bitcoin (BTC) edges higher by 1.4% to $98,930. Over the weekend, ONT broke through the resistance at $0.2000, paving the way for a continued rally, with prices climbing an additional 12.0% toward the next target at $0.3000.

The token's trajectory remains closely tied to Bitcoin's performance, which is currently grappling with the psychological threshold of $100,000. A significant correction in Bitcoin could trigger a steep decline in ONT.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
BAT Is Pushing to $0.2500

Basic Attention Token (BAT) has surged by 13.2% to $0.2187, outperforming the broader market, with Bitcoin (BTC) up 10.5% to $98,435. This rally allowed BAT to break through the $0.2000-0.2150 resistance zone, setting its sights on the next target at $0.2500.

However, risks remain. If Bitcoin faces a correction from its critical $100,000 resistance level, BAT could follow suit, especially as it lacks significant fundamental catalysts to sustain its momentum.

1508
B
Another Feat For the AI Glory

This autumn earnings season on Wall Street was dominated by varying bets on NVidia release. As a bright example, Barclays analysts shared their views that the heightened anticipation surrounding NVidia's results was a reflection of the outsized impact of the AI agenda to become the "defining market catalyst of the year", eclipsing regular macroeconomic news including US inflation dynamics and Federal Reserve decisions. And now, when the hyping chipmaker, which is also the world's largest issuer in terms of market caps, eventually posted its blowout numbers and forward guidance, on record highs as usually, I am personally pleased, being calm about the overall bullish trend in most techs and generally in the S&P 500. Investors may set higher goals after NVIDIA simply took a firmer foothold in the direct vicinity of its all-time peaking price in what I might call the natural and normal way of self-effacingly thanking the market crowd for its kind attention. With no sharp fluctuations to follow the report, NVidia price has hovered between 0.3% and 2.0% in after-hours activity, literally a small step below its closing level at $145.89 on the previous regular session on November 20. Just stepping up to the occasion was enough to grow above $148, which corresponds to +1.5%, at the very first moment of today's pre-market activity. A fresh all-time peak at $152.88 has been shown immediately when the regular session began, which is setting the next standard bar, even though the price retracement back to $145 area or below would still be O.K. without spoiling the overall mood. Another real feat for the AI glory is taken casually by most in the market.

NVidia did not provide another jump in terms of market prices, yet it technically build another to-the-moon-bridge. The company's CEOs officially announced Q3 EPS (earnings per share) of as much as $0.81 (more than doubling its profit achievements at $0.402 in the same quarter of 2023) on revenue of $35.1 billion (against $18.12 billion only one year ago and $30 billion in the previous quarter of 2024). We know that human greed knows no bounds, and so nobody could be fully satisfied with a new historical record by NVidia, which is a clear reason for the market's muted response, but the pool of high-rated analysts at leading media agencies including Reuters and Bloomberg anticipated EPS of $0.75 on revenue of $33.09 billion. The actual results from NVidia were 8% better in profit and 6% higher in terms of revenue. Meanwhile, NVidia updated its own forecast for revenue of $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%, for the current quarter, which means additional 5% to 9% of growth in nearest three months, compared with previous consensus estimate of $37.09 billion (+5,66%) on average, according to data compiled by LSEG.

NVidia actually readmitted that only supply snags is the factor to temporarily limit growing deliveries amid the boom of demand. And so, I could raise my personal target for NVIDIA well above $220. Maybe not everybody on Wall Street was impressed, but I am surely not the only market dreamer who admired the recent NVidia business performance and its further plans. Analysts from Rosenblatt Securities are even greater optimists as the reputable financial group even raised its price target for NVidia share to $220, maintaining a Buy rating, of course. They especially noted "a positive outlook for the January quarter", primarily because of "higher-than-anticipated demand for its Hopper products", while Blackwell wafers line is "also anticipated to experience a significant supply ramp-up, as it is expected to be sold out for the next several quarters".

The new line of processors "has been embraced by NVidia's customers", with the company going to exceed its initial projections "of several billion dollars in sales" of the new generation of processors in Q4, NVidia's Colette Kress confirmed during a conference call. When asked about media reports that NVidia's latest Grace Blackwell liquid-cooled server containing 72 of the new chips allegedly met overheating issues during initial testing, CEO Jensen Huang commented there were no issues like that and NVidia large customers including Microsoft and Oracle are already updating the systems. The bottleneck for more chip supply is just the limited capacity for advanced manufacturing techniques at the company's fabrication partners like TSMC. As Jensen Huang said, when ramping Blackwell chips up, more production lines would be available to improve the yield, which is usually considered as the number of working chips per wafer, as well as the cycle time. I was fully satisfied with these comments, and what about you?

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