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14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

16.01.2025
Delta Is Taking Off To Update Its Highs

Delta Air Lines stock rose markedly by low double digits in the first ten days of the new year. The U.S. carrier has served more than 200 million customers in 2024, when it was also recognized by J.D. Power, a leading American data analytics and consumer intelligence company, for being No. 1 in First/Business and Premium Economy Passenger Satisfaction. Travelers became more willing to spend extra money for swanky seats when meeting a high level of service. Delta is just positioning itself as the nation's premium airline. And what's more important, its Christmas quarter's earnings reportedly surpassed average analyst pool projections. Driven by stronger travel demand, smart financial management and capacity discipline, Delta business provided last three-months' profit of $1.85 per share vs $1.28 at the same period one year ago, compared to $1.75 in consensus estimates. On January 10, the airline industry leader put its future profit levels within a range between $0.70 and $1 per share in the current quarter through the end of March, while analyst expectations were focused on $0.77 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. The starting months of each year always perform worse. It is clear that all carriers made losses in the Covid years of 2020-2022, but Delta profits only recovered into a range from $0.25 to $0.45 in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively, but Q1 profit numbers varied from $0.75 to $0.96 even in the three blessed years before the pandemic. Delta added that it is forecasting annual earnings in excess of $7.35 a share, which would be the highest in its 100-year history, based on its planned revenue growth of 7% to 9% in the March quarter from a year ago. The announcement could be compared to an adjusted profit of $6.16 a share in 2024. The company happily breaks through ticket prices' rising effects, almost undisturbed by a reduction in airline seats in the domestic market, which was peculiar for most carriers. Thus, new expectations created a fertile ground for setting new price records, even though price movements on Delta charts look most convincing among its other American rivals.

By the way, Citigroup analysts freshly updated their outlook on Delta Air Lines shares to raise their price target to $80 from the previous $77, vs the actual range around $65 per share where the stock just came after a reasonable market correction from last week's and all-time highs. Citigroup said it has included factors like higher revenue per available seat mile, projections of slightly lower fuel prices, increased taxation, a minor rise in share count, and the incorporation of fourth-quarter 2024 results into their financial model, which has projected Delta's profit at $7.49 per share in 2024 and $8.72 in 2025. Delta shares are Buy-rated at Citi, and we agree with their positive estimates in general, while keeping in mind even better price goals somewhere between $82.5 and $85.

09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

10.01.2025
Dollar Strength Is a Given

The very first slice of statistical data on business activity from the United States this year reaffirmed an almost clear irrelevance and even potential hurtfulness of any immediate steps towards further lowering interest rates on U.S. Dollar-nominated loans from a purely economic point of view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), based on polls compiled from executives in over 400 industrial companies in late December, came out at 49.3 points vs 48.4 a month ago and 48.2 in average analyst estimates. This showed that a slowdown was occurring at a slower or even insignificant pace, keeping inflation risks on the table, especially when the price component increased from 50.3 to 52.5 with a similar rate of increase in new orders. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI came out at 54.1 on Tuesday, compared to 53.5 in analyst polls and 52.1 a month ago, with a contribution of business activity components even jumped to a surprising 58.2 against declining from 57.2 in November to only 53.7 in December.

In other words, the economy is not cooling, and is rather in a positive acceleration, which in turn may lead to a recovery in wage rises and therefore to higher demand pressure, which may be reflected soon in higher producer purchase and output prices. Doubts of the major U.S. financial regulator are understandable at this point after its triple rate cut from 5.5% to 4.5% in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will now pay closer attention not only to consumer inflation measures, but also to producer prices (PPI), which is just going to be released on coming Tuesday, January 14. And so, this will become the next reference point in the further U.S. Dollar’s trajectory. The Greenback index (DX) is picking up steam since reaching a new record high for the last two years at 109.35, with its temporary pullbacks being limited by a 107.50 support area that previously served as a strong multi-month technical resistance.

In this context, the British Pound (GBPUSD) updated its lows since November 2023 to touch 1.2237 on January 9, EURUSD feels quite comfortable within a range between 1.02 and 1.0450, which corresponds to its 2-year bottom, and having a bias towards a possible further decline. The Aussie (AUDUSD) is one-step away from taking the path for a breakthrough to a quite unknown territory of its 5-year lows that were last time recorded when the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 happened.

A varying extent of the American Dollar strength is surely data dependent as the market community is eagerly waiting for the U.S. job data later today. The average expectations on new Nonfarm Payrolls is just a bit above 150,000 vs 227,000 in early December 2024 and nearly 160,000 for the previous four months on average. However, any value close to 150,000, plus or minus 20,000, or any higher number, may be considered as another positive sign for the Greenback, following the ADP national employment report which contained only 122,000 on Wednesday. The oppressive nature of average hourly wage in its dynamics, +0.4% each time from September to December, also matters.

The protective quality of investing more funds into the U.S. Dollar and U.S. bonds against tariff threats is switched on anyway, based on more than a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates on pause at its January 29 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials never go against a well-established market consensus, when it is almost unanimous, for not to rock the boat of relative market trend stability. The central bankers' reluctance to shift the Fed fund rates lower before mid-March, if not early May, continues to play in favour of short-term speculative transactions on the foreign exchange market, bearing in mind all the listed currency instruments. Some intraday volatility may take place, especially in the case of appearing an abnormal two-digit non-farm value, but not a change in overall direction.

Unaffordable Stocks to Be Sold At a Low Price: Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) seeks to attract more small investors by approving a 50-for-1 stock split. The burrito chain never did it before in its history, since it launched its IPO (initial public offering) in January 2006 at only $22 per share. Now, Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock price touched $3,000 per share on March 20, after nearly doubling its market value for the last 12 months. A spectacular success among other restaurant segment companies and large income for its faithful shareholders for many years, yet few private traders can handle such an expensive part for only one company in their portfolios, and so many just prefer to skip the CMG option. Who has extra $3,000 for Mexican food on a trading account? This is why the amount of those investors is much less compared to the number of rice bowl eaters and lovers of tacos. Chipotle's board is ready to fix the problem. This split would happen at the moment when the stock is "experiencing an all-time high driven by record revenues, profits, and growth," Jack Hartung, its CFO argued. He hopes the move would make CMG stock accessible to the chain's own employees and "a broader range of investors". Each CMG investor as of June 18, 2024 would get 49 additional shares for each share held. And the split shares for new attracted investors will be done after the Wall St closes on June 25, 2024. So, everybody would be able to purchase some stake in Chipotle Mexican Grill, starting from $60 or maybe a little more, depending on the post-split quotes of the company at that moment.

The Chipotle Mexican Grill stock was trading around $2,800 before the opening bell on March 19, when the split announcement came immediately sending the price to a new range between $2,900 and $3,000. CMG shares may continue to rally, especially after the split would be accomplished, to hit fresh record levels propelled by the current bullish sentiment. Such expectations are based on strong earnings due to a solid demand in more than 3,400 locations only across the United States. Chipotle Mexican Grill forecasted a 34.4% YoY growth for the current fiscal year and may become a top pick for growth investors at a low cost price soon. In early February 2024, CMG beat consensus numbers once again in both top and bottom lines, while projecting its full year comparable sales growth in the mid-single digit range.

A brief but eventful history. In 1993, the first Chipotle Mexican Grill opened in Denver, Colorado. In 1998, the first restaurant outside of Colorado started in Kansas. In the same year, McDonald's became a minority investor in the company to become Chipotle's largest investor by 2001. The business expanded to over 500 food points in 2005. In October 2006, McDonald's fully divested from Chipotle, as a part of a larger initiative to divest its non-core business restaurants. Ironically, some twenty years after this, Chipotle Mexican Grill shares may become a part of almost every investment portfolio.

2077
B
The Fed Tricked Us by Making Our Minds Even More Bullish

Encouraging verbal signs and interest rate path projections after the Federal Reserve meeting last night clearly provided greater support to the broad S&P 500 indicator than to its leading core consisting of the AI-related businesses. The S&P 500 just ended the regular session on March 20 by nearly 0.9% higher to close above 5,200 points for the first time ever and then added another 0.5% in the pre-market trading today, while most AI-leaders, including NVidia and AMD, stood in the vicinity of their previous heights. At the same time, even some stocks that were lagging behind in recent months like Tesla (+2.5%) or banking stocks cheered up more visibly. The Bank of America added 2% in one day, as an example. Several consumer discretionary stocks rose too. A very much understandable effect, as the AI core, or tech stocks at the bigger picture, represented a major group, which successfully climbed upstairs even without any doping help from central bankers. Meanwhile, most stocks need stronger pillars like lower borrowing costs and soft landing hopes to grow further. And so, the market has been granted that wish.

Surely, the Fed left its fund rates steady for the fifth time in a row, yet it mentioned three "planned" rate cuts before the end of 2024. The chair Powell said before that March was "too soon" to have "enough confidence" from incoming economic data to cut rates, but now most investing houses are betting for June. The Fed also saw more rate cuts to drop to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. For me, they are using a kind of gaslighting tactic, as initially they pushed the market to suppose up to six rate cut moves this year. In fact, the Fed did zero moves, while inflation is trending up again, and so the Wall Street is now happy with only a suggestion of three rate cuts soon. This is not dovish yet is perceived as being dovish. That was a neat trick with our minds yet it worked well to make almost everybody keep bullish positions. This happens exactly when most households and business owners continue to suffer from too expensive credit money, yet this would not prevent mega caps and now broader markets to enjoy new peaks. Well, all of us will work with what we all have, still expecting the S&P 500 at 5,500 or so in few months. And I will buy and hold when others are buying and holding, why not?

4479
Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Ether is Recovering on Dovish Fed

Ethereum (ETH) faced a weekly decline of 2.8%, trading at $3535. However, the altcoin experienced a significant drop of 16.0% to $3054 earlier in the week, nearing crucial support levels at $3000. The decline coincided with broader market trends, as Bitcoin (BTC) also saw a 10.8% decrease to $60,817 on Wednesday.

The major contributing factor to the downward pressure on Ethereum was the news of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delaying the approval of a spot ETH-ETF, which was anticipated on May 23. This announcement added to the negative sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

However, Ethereum saw a notable recovery after the Federal Reserve hinted at potential interest rate cuts in June, despite ongoing concerns about inflation. The Fed's assurance regarding monetary policy provided a sense of relief to investors, leading to a market-wide rebound.

With the Fed's announcement, Ethereum has an opportunity to regain momentum and potentially reach $4000 per coin if it can surpass the resistance level at $3500.

2507
Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Intel Sends Upside Signals

Intel Corp (INTC) stocks have experienced a significant decline of 16.6% to $42.0 per share since the beginning of 2024, presenting a challenging situation for its investors despite the prevailing AI mania that is expected to drive demand for computer chips. However, this downturn may present an opportunity for a potential recovery, especially as the stock has reached a support level within its uptrend.

Furthermore, rumors circulating about Intel potentially securing an $8.5 billion contract from the U.S. government to modernize its chip production facilities could serve as a positive catalyst for the company's stock.

Considering these factors, purchasing the stock within the $40.0-42.0 range with a target price of $50.0-52.0 per share appears to be a strategic move. Setting a stop-loss at $31.0 can help mitigate potential losses in case the stock does not perform as expected.

2028
139

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