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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

B
Gold May Continue to Fall

The price of gold is still striving for the support level of $1780 per ounce. This is the level where it may rebound. This zone is the support level of the Ichimoku cloud, both on the daily and weekly charts. It is interesting to see that the price has been moving sideways since 2020 and cannot get out of the trend on a monthly timeframe. On smaller timeframes, the price is under 200 EMA and under 50 EMA, which can be considered as an indicator of a smaller trend. On M30 and H1, 200 EMA and 50 EMA can be considered as dynamic resistance levels, which may turn out to be selling points once they are crossed and create a signal that the price will turn up. Why am I waiting for a reversal from this range, or at least a pause in the decline? Because on the daily chart the price is approaching 200 EMA. This is usually a strong dynamic level, from which the price bounces. The trend, in my opinion, has been present in the market since the price began to move down at the beginning of February 2023.

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B
Brent Is Seen to Recover as it Dives to $80

Oil prices have been in a downtrend since March 2022. Brent crude prices have been descending since then and approaching the lows of the descending channel. However, an important support level at $80 has not been broken in the last 2 months, as prices rebounded every time they approach this margin. If look at the RSI with a period of 14 on H4 chart, we may see that Brent crude is clearly oversold. It seems prices are forming a rebound pattern from the $80 per barrel level. Technically, it might be a good entry point for a long position. Considering that there are no reversal signals at the moment, it would be better to wait for the price to enter the range of $78-80 per barrel to receive such a signal. The target price is at $88. If the support of $78 is broken through, then the price is likely to continue down towards $65 per barrel.

636
B
Fed Minutes Push the Euro Down

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has released the FOMC Minutes from the previous meeting where they shared the possibility of raising interest rates higher than previously projected. Higher inflation and a strong labour market are adding pressure on the Fed and affecting decisions. Markets seem to be accepting new tightening possibilities and are reassigned themselves to the idea that the Fed might not get off the path of aggressive rate hikes. This news may contribute to the strengthening of the US Dollar and add pressure on Euro. The U.S. Dollar index is moving up towards 106 points with the EURUSD tumbling towards 1.0470. The Fed’s projections are affecting stocks and the debt market. Higher interest rates are pushing borrowing cost up, which could lead to lower investments and slower economic growth.

268
Attractive Industry of Entertainment: Netflix

Netflix stocks lost over 50% of their value during the general market correction. But the company has a strong business according to the recent quarterly report. Netflix reported $1.6 billion in free cash flow by the end of Q4 2022, forecasting it up to $3 billion by the end of 2023. The company has reported revenues at $31.6 billion in 2022, which is better that $29.7 billion in 2021 and $24.9 billion in 2020.

The number of subscribers rose by 9 million to 231 million during 2022. Despite the aggressive streaming services penetration into our daily lives, people spend 50% less time using the service compared to watching ordinary TV. This is a good sign for the industry as streaming services have a lot of room to increase people’s engagement and to expand. Netflix’s partners recognize that the company has much stronger average revenue per user compared to its peers. General Motors is collaborating with Netflix to promote its EV’s in Netflix’s series and movies.

Netflix is often compared to Apple. Both companies may not dominate their niche, but have first-class products and fans who help them get the highest revenues compared to their peers. Netflix management is planning to continue double-digit revenue growth to return to the 2021 operational margin of 21%. The company has reported 18% operational margin in 2022. In other words, these plans imply revenues of $34.8 billion with earnings of $7.3 billion (21% of the revenues) in 2023.

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