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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

Tech Giants’ Troubles: Amazon

The pandemic caused Amazon’s revenues to boom with a huge expansion of its marketplace and Amazon Web Services (AWS). But the perfect storm arrived in 2022, as supply chain issues, high inflation, rising interest rates, falling consumer spending, and a strong Dollar hit company’s financials. Free cash flow dropped to the negative zone with -$23.5 billion in the Q2 2022 compared to positive Q2 2020 with $31.9 billion, though it seemed to be recovering in early 2023. Capital expenditures have eaten up most of the cash as they rose from $35 billion to $58.3 billion over the last three years. Amazon CFO, Brian Olsavsky, said the company is satisfied with investments in business development, and has reduced capital expenditures in Q4 2022.  Amazon is actively transforming into a service company with a rising share of AWS business that has boosted its revenues by 20% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2022. This is a much more marginable division of the company compared to the retail business, and is likely to become the major driver for Amazon growth. The other fast-growing segment is advertising. The segment has recorded sales of $37.7 billion during 2022 compared to $19.8 billion in 2019. Thus, the discount of 50% to AMZN stocks peak prices look very attractive for long-term investors.  

179
Tech Giants’ Troubles: Meta

Meta stocks surged more than twice their value since November 2022, but are trading 45% below their peak prices. Meta’s management has declared 2023 as “the year of effectiveness” adding positive sentiment to investors. The company announced $40 billion buyback. There are more reasons to watch the stock closely. Meta’s staff increased by 20% compared to last year’s numbers, making operational spending rise dramatically. Management already announced layoffs of 11,000 employees, but this will only have a financial effect at the end of Q1, or even Q2 of 2023. The company reported that it expects its active users to rise by 4.2% year-on-year to 3.74 billion, despite its significant user base. The rise of capital expenditures by 67% year-on-year to $32 billion is seen to be mixed as most of this funding goes to Reality Labs, a warm hole that is developing Metaverse and has recorded $4.3 billion losses during Q4 2022. Sooner or later this division has to deliver a profit, or it will likely be shut down by Mar Zuckerberg himself. Both scenarios would be a strong driver for Meta stocks. The company could spend the money more wisely, but no serious damage to its financials has been made so far. The Q4 2022 resulted in net cash inflows of $10 billion. Meta has survived the change of Apple’s iOS privacy policy that limited the abilities of apps to track investors that were estimated to wipe off $10 billion of Meta revenues. So, the company will also survive a possible failure of the Metaverse.   

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Tech Giants’ Troubles: Google

Google stocks are trading 30% off their peak prices. The recent earnings report for the Q4 2022 was mixed as advertising revenues dropped by 3.5% amid a poor economic environment. However, cloud services rose by 32%. The division is not profitable yet, but is gradually improving its margins, and may become a key revenue source in the future. The company received $60 billion in cash in 2022, and delivered a buyback of its shares of $59.3 billion. So, the company is handing over the cash received to investors instead of accumulating it as it did in the past. The fact that worries the company the most is the newly emerged ChatGPT neural network sponsored by Microsoft. Such networks may change the entire search business. Google has its own Bard neural network, but it is too far from the effectiveness presented by ChatGPT. Nonetheless, Google management expect the Bard to optimise various processes, including raising monetisation of Shorts and some other business processes. All these expectations are more related to 2024. Investors are not rushing to buy stocks amid promises, even if they are made by a giant like Google. The neural networks search abilities battle is far from being over, so it is very difficult to judge who is the leader. First financial results should be delivered to make a preliminary opinion on this. Vast research abilities of Google are univocal, and the company has been developing its product for several years. So, the sentiment could make a U-Turn, rewarding early bird investors generously.   

182
B
Brent Is Heading to New Lows

Brent prices are moving within the downward channel and it is too early to talk about an upside reversal. Although, the RSI indicator with a period of 14 on the daily timeframe chart has reached the oversold zone, and may signal a buy action. The entry points seem not to be bad. However, a divergence may appear that will only strengthen the buy signal. So far, no divergence has been seen. Within the H4 timeframe, we cannot observe an increase of extremum in the indicator. This means that the current price rollback, which may happen after the US Federal Reserve rate decision, is only a rollback, not a reversal. Technical support is located at $65 per barrel.

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