新闻和分析

The brands like Oreo and Belvita cookies, Alpen Gold, Toblerone, Milka and Cadbury chocolate, as well as Barni bear-shaped snacks for kids’ nutrition never disappoint Mondelez manufacturers. Over 200 more unique trademarks inside the Mondelez portfolio do make it rich. Cocoa bean futures were peaking above $12,500 per ton before Christmas, after ranging between $6,000 and $10,000 in summer and fall of 2024, yet this phenomenon of chocolate inflation still impacted costs during the first two months of the current year. Despite these headwinds, Mondelez weathered the challenges and delivered a better-than-expected quarter.

Even though it released a 18.3% decline YoY on a constant currency basis, with sales for the quarter coming a $30 million below the $9.34 billion estimate, it was up 0.2% from the previous year, and the main thing was that the company posted its adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $0.74, which exceeded the Wall Street analyst poll consensus of $0.66. The so-called organic or net revenue growth was even above 3%, helped by higher pricing to nearly offset a 3.5% decline in physical volume. Mondelez fully reaffirmed its previous 2025 outlook, projecting nominal sales growth or around 5% YoY, after it already returned $2.1 billion to shareholders through cash dividends and share repurchases during the first quarter. The details emerged last night, prompting a nearly 2% rise in Mondelez's share price in extended trading hours.

Both households and lonely people are gonna save on many things nowadays, but most of us are attempting to eat enough chocolate and biscuits, each time we have a cup of tea or coffee. I know I'm a better person when I'm eating chocolate, or when I'm investing into chocolate names again. And I have reason to believe that I will also have material gains from this action. After all, the nearest technical resistance for Mondelez shares is no closer than $75 per share, while the price has only jumped from $65 to $67, and the average analytical estimate of the pool of experts sets target levels of about $71 per share, which is more than 8% more than yesterday's closing price. Moreover, classic methods of technical analysis show that we are just inside a triangular panel of the flag pattern, which is marked in orange on my drawing, and such patterns are more often broken upwards. The pole of the flag (it is on the left side of the chart) pointed to the top of my target area, which is also shown in orange colour on this chart below. The potential profit here certainly cannot be as high as in the artificial intelligence and cloud segments, but... what do you say to the following simple reasoning?

Manufacturers surely make a lot of money on this common passion, even while they also bear growing operating costs, but why shouldn't we make money on this instead of just spending it? At least to get my money back, so as to get a small income, just enough to buy back my favourite chocolates and cookies once again. If so, my balanced diet is chocolate and chocolate-related equities in both hands today.

Unlike some other businesses selling everyday consumer products, which recently lowered their annual projections for food or hygiene items, including PepsiCo (PEP) and Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO) now issues a rather optimistic forecast on top of its solid quarterly results. Having profitably raised retail prices on the most substantial part of its product line, the beverage producer relied on resilient demand for its well-known sodas like Fanta and Sprite, juices and ultra-filtered milk offering Fairlife, made with about 50% more protein and 50% less sugar, compared to regular milk products.

In Q1, the giant company earned $0.73 per share, compared with Wall St pool estimates of $0.71 and $0.72 in the same period of 2024. The one-off decline to $0.55 in the Christmas quarter looks to have been overcome. The Coca-Cola's average selling prices are 5% higher while volumes in units increased by 2% QoQ on annual basis. Timely refreshed and higher price tags allowed Coca-Cola to earn more, despite the fact that its quarterly revenue fell marginally from $11.1 billion a year ago and $11.5 billion in Q4 2024 to $11.14 billion, which was in line with analyst expectations.

Of course, The Coca-Cola's operation is partially subject to global trade dynamics which "may impact certain components of the company’s cost structure across its markets," its CEOs admitted in a statement, adding that they expect the impact "to be manageable", as its supply chains are "primarily local". Pushing up costs, therefore, is not critical for its major business now, and it maintained all previously announced numbers for the full-year organic revenue and profit forecasts. Meanwhile, its rival PepsiCo (PEP) last week mentioned "subdued consumer spending", but Coca-Cola managed even to increase sales in highly inflationary markets such as Latin America.

Nothing noteworthy happened to the market price of Coca-Cola immediately after the earnings release, but it rose about 1.5% before the opening bell on April 29, offsetting a roughly equal-size decline on concerns over the previous couple of days. The proximity to its fresh all-time high just below $75 per share (detected on April 22) looks fully justified, while the price has never fallen below $60 this year, compared to its $51.55 low in 2023. The price range between $70 and $75 could be considered as a base case scenario before the next bullish attack, with $77 or even $80 as the next intermediate-term target. This asset is one of the best defensive equities among consumer stocks, perhaps along with Walmart (WMT). But we still feel a bigger potential in the latter one.

Ethereum (ETH) is up 1.9% this week to $1,839, modestly outperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which is gaining just 0.9% to $95,100. Crypto markets remain in a gradual upward trend, but lack a decisive catalyst to spark a stronger breakout.

Potential triggers—such as progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations or a Federal Reserve interest rate cut—remain largely speculative. While rate cuts are unlikely in May, signs of easing trade tensions could inject the needed momentum for broader crypto gains.

Ethereum is offering its own internal boost: the Ethereum Foundation's leadership restructuring, announced by Vitalik Buterin, has been well received. Moreover, the upcoming Pectra upgrade expected in May is building anticipation. However, these developments alone may only be enough to push ETH toward the $2,000 resistance—not through it. A stronger external push is still required to sustain a breakout.

Gold appears significantly overbought, with technical signals resembling those seen in October 2011 when it set a long-standing record of $1,920 per ounce. Now trading at $3,322, the metal seems primed for a correction, with a downside potential of at least 10%, targeting the $2,950–3,000 range.

The technical setup supports this bearish view. A failed diamond reversal pattern formed in mid-April has now expanded into what could be the largest diamond structure in gold trading history, and a strong reversal signal. Momentum indicators are showing signs of exhaustion, and recent gains may have been driven by speculative fervour rather than fundamentals.

Fundamentally, the softening of U.S.–China trade tensions and a potential false breakout above trend resistance further weaken the bull case. With upward momentum fading, a pullback seems increasingly likely.

Your short strategy from current levels with a target at $3,000–3,050 appears well-reasoned. The stop-loss at $3,630 provides a sensible buffer above the highs in case of unexpected volatility.