新闻和分析

Everybody was well aware of the U.S. and European stocks' readiness to drop to supposedly fresh dips following Trump's aggressive tariff announcement. Even though this could be mostly attributed to effects from the field of psychology, those shifts in the equity market were easily predictable, unlike a fast slump of the Greenback against the same fundamental background. Such a radical shift in the foreign exchange sentiment became a big surprise for me personally, if only because it came from a strange kind of logical construction.

Just look at the typical explanations today. EUR/USD soared from a narrow range between 1.0800 and 1.0850 in early Asian hours to as high as 1.1146 at its peaking price soon after the European afternoon. Meanwhile, analysts at Reuters and Bloomberg shared the view that this happened because the EU goods will be subject to 20% tariffs, while China, Taiwan, Switzerland or Thailand are facing between 30% and 50% tariffs. A good outcome for Europe? That would be the case if the single European currency were to soar against the Chinese, Taiwanese, as well as Swiss or Vietnamese currencies, as Vietnam's export to the U.S. is damaged more than others by the highest tariffs among all U.S. trading partners. But nope, the Euro is soaring against the Dollar, although Trump's recent moves are clearly hurting the European economy in a more painful way than they may hurt the American one.

Hello friends, it is America that will now take more tax money at the border from Europe, and not European governments from America, even if Europe will finally decide to take additional retaliatory measures instead of negotiations to achieve any possible mutual easing of tariff conditions. Who are we fooling when saying that the Euro is allegedly supported by the German government's plan of increasing expenditure on infrastructure and defence. This will hardly boost the Eurozone’s largest economy, as they would only increase cost for budgets at the same moment when the White House declares it wants to spend the accumulated money from higher levies on tax cuts in their own country as well as on reducing the U.S. national debt.

Well, in my humble opinion, it is foreign trading partners, including EU businesses, who will now have to either spend more of their Euros to buy U.S. Dollars at the American border to pay the duties later, or take fewer amount of U.S. Dollars out of the United States after paying those duties to exchange for Euros. Can anyone explain what is positive about this for the Euro? “The blowback of U.S. tariffs onto the U.S. domestic economy leaves the dollar naked,” analysts at ING said today, in a client's note. However, if America is naked in any aspect here, it may play the naked muscles.

If so, frankly speaking, then the only possible reason for the further growth of the Euro, the British Pound and other currencies against the U.S. Dollar, lies in the immediate take-off of large capital by some rich daddies, as they became more afraid for the safety of their lovely money in the now-trumpian America, as soon as Uncle Sam shook his fist at them.

If this is the right thinking of mine, and there is still some logical ground behind this, then the current rise of the Euro by inertia will last no more than a couple of weeks, after which a complete reversal of a newborn mini uptrend will occur. Equity markets will soon recover from temporary dips on both sides of the pond, but Wall Street will regain its strength first and the Euro may reach 1.15, or even touch some relatively higher levels against the Dollar, and then return to usual weakness. If so, Gold will roll back for a while, but then will head to new records again. Bet, gentlemen, the poker game begins, while the Greenback is hardly naked at the table for everybody's fun!

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading neutral at $0.1642 this week, slightly underperforming the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is up 1.8% to $83,668. The market has shown resilience against the wave of reciprocal tariffs initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, with DOGE declining only 4.3% and BTC dropping 3.1% in response to the news.

Elon Musk, often seen as an unofficial ambassador for Dogecoin, recently dismissed any plans to integrate DOGE, which disappointed some investors. However, large holders have continued accumulating the meme cryptocurrency throughout March. From a technical standpoint, if DOGE manages to break through the $0.2000 resistance, a further rally toward $0.3000 could become the baseline scenario.

While the investing minds are occupied en masse by Donald Trump's MAGA tariff agenda, I would like to draw your attention to a simple fact that there are other hot topics that you can look at. It's actually hard in advance to determine if the new set of tariffs would make America great and more sustainable to trade imbalances or weak and exposed to higher import prices, but the tariff changes certainly won't crash either the US or global economy. At the same time, discounted prices on particular businesses that have their own positive fundamental drivers may not be repeated anytime soon.

As an example, I pointed out about that the Chinese-rooted Alibaba stock was going to crawl into a higher range, where the technical support levels could be located between $115 and $120 per share. The e-commerce giant's transition to a new quality followed solid sales figures from the previous quarter and a preliminary announcement of additional investments in cutting-edge AI features. Right now, as Alibaba Group Holdings ADRs on NYSE have already retreated from mid-March peaks at nearly $150 per share, making attempts to slide below $130 with a high chance to temporarily dip further toward key support levels on the back of this general tariff correction, the AI advancements for Alibaba are getting new and timely confirmations.

Alibaba managers shared a plan of preparing to launch an improved version of its primary AI model, named Qwen 3, as soon as "later this month". The exact date is still uncertain but it is not very important, I guess. Sources "close to the matter" also reported on Bloomberg that the new large language model's capability of processing text, pictures, audio, and video description of goods and other content for consumers would operate even more effectively on smartphones than the previous Qwen 2.5, which had been introduced only last week. A new version of the AI assistant Quark app was also launched in March. The AI progress becomes speedier to help Alibaba in its competition with OpenAI rivals.

A surge of lower cost AI services from China’s is throwing down the gauntlet to US companies including Google-parent Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft. Since all three of the listed above leading companies in the cloud sphere have been in my portfolio for a long time, I would like to take advantage of the buying opportunity and put Alibaba stock there as well as soon as the price may fall into a narrow corridor below $130 but above $120.

Cosmos (ATOM) is up 1.77% this week to $4.360, lagging behind the broader market as Bitcoin (BTC) climbs 3.7% to $85,124. Investors are cautiously optimistic amid speculation that the U.S. may introduce softer-than-expected reciprocal tariffs. On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce the imposition of tariffs on all nations that impose duties on U.S. exports.

From a technical standpoint, ATOM’s price action remains resilient. The token has recovered most of its early March losses, when it attempted to break above the $5.000 resistance. Recently, it broke through the downtrend resistance and has managed to hold above it. Any positive developments regarding tariffs could serve as a catalyst, propelling ATOM past the $5.000 threshold.