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09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

10.01.2025
Dollar Strength Is a Given

The very first slice of statistical data on business activity from the United States this year reaffirmed an almost clear irrelevance and even potential hurtfulness of any immediate steps towards further lowering interest rates on U.S. Dollar-nominated loans from a purely economic point of view. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), based on polls compiled from executives in over 400 industrial companies in late December, came out at 49.3 points vs 48.4 a month ago and 48.2 in average analyst estimates. This showed that a slowdown was occurring at a slower or even insignificant pace, keeping inflation risks on the table, especially when the price component increased from 50.3 to 52.5 with a similar rate of increase in new orders. Meanwhile, non-manufacturing PMI came out at 54.1 on Tuesday, compared to 53.5 in analyst polls and 52.1 a month ago, with a contribution of business activity components even jumped to a surprising 58.2 against declining from 57.2 in November to only 53.7 in December.

In other words, the economy is not cooling, and is rather in a positive acceleration, which in turn may lead to a recovery in wage rises and therefore to higher demand pressure, which may be reflected soon in higher producer purchase and output prices. Doubts of the major U.S. financial regulator are understandable at this point after its triple rate cut from 5.5% to 4.5% in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will now pay closer attention not only to consumer inflation measures, but also to producer prices (PPI), which is just going to be released on coming Tuesday, January 14. And so, this will become the next reference point in the further U.S. Dollar’s trajectory. The Greenback index (DX) is picking up steam since reaching a new record high for the last two years at 109.35, with its temporary pullbacks being limited by a 107.50 support area that previously served as a strong multi-month technical resistance.

In this context, the British Pound (GBPUSD) updated its lows since November 2023 to touch 1.2237 on January 9, EURUSD feels quite comfortable within a range between 1.02 and 1.0450, which corresponds to its 2-year bottom, and having a bias towards a possible further decline. The Aussie (AUDUSD) is one-step away from taking the path for a breakthrough to a quite unknown territory of its 5-year lows that were last time recorded when the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 happened.

A varying extent of the American Dollar strength is surely data dependent as the market community is eagerly waiting for the U.S. job data later today. The average expectations on new Nonfarm Payrolls is just a bit above 150,000 vs 227,000 in early December 2024 and nearly 160,000 for the previous four months on average. However, any value close to 150,000, plus or minus 20,000, or any higher number, may be considered as another positive sign for the Greenback, following the ADP national employment report which contained only 122,000 on Wednesday. The oppressive nature of average hourly wage in its dynamics, +0.4% each time from September to December, also matters.

The protective quality of investing more funds into the U.S. Dollar and U.S. bonds against tariff threats is switched on anyway, based on more than a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates on pause at its January 29 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Federal Reserve officials never go against a well-established market consensus, when it is almost unanimous, for not to rock the boat of relative market trend stability. The central bankers' reluctance to shift the Fed fund rates lower before mid-March, if not early May, continues to play in favour of short-term speculative transactions on the foreign exchange market, bearing in mind all the listed currency instruments. Some intraday volatility may take place, especially in the case of appearing an abnormal two-digit non-farm value, but not a change in overall direction.

14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

16.01.2025
Delta Is Taking Off To Update Its Highs

Delta Air Lines stock rose markedly by low double digits in the first ten days of the new year. The U.S. carrier has served more than 200 million customers in 2024, when it was also recognized by J.D. Power, a leading American data analytics and consumer intelligence company, for being No. 1 in First/Business and Premium Economy Passenger Satisfaction. Travelers became more willing to spend extra money for swanky seats when meeting a high level of service. Delta is just positioning itself as the nation's premium airline. And what's more important, its Christmas quarter's earnings reportedly surpassed average analyst pool projections. Driven by stronger travel demand, smart financial management and capacity discipline, Delta business provided last three-months' profit of $1.85 per share vs $1.28 at the same period one year ago, compared to $1.75 in consensus estimates. On January 10, the airline industry leader put its future profit levels within a range between $0.70 and $1 per share in the current quarter through the end of March, while analyst expectations were focused on $0.77 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. The starting months of each year always perform worse. It is clear that all carriers made losses in the Covid years of 2020-2022, but Delta profits only recovered into a range from $0.25 to $0.45 in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively, but Q1 profit numbers varied from $0.75 to $0.96 even in the three blessed years before the pandemic. Delta added that it is forecasting annual earnings in excess of $7.35 a share, which would be the highest in its 100-year history, based on its planned revenue growth of 7% to 9% in the March quarter from a year ago. The announcement could be compared to an adjusted profit of $6.16 a share in 2024. The company happily breaks through ticket prices' rising effects, almost undisturbed by a reduction in airline seats in the domestic market, which was peculiar for most carriers. Thus, new expectations created a fertile ground for setting new price records, even though price movements on Delta charts look most convincing among its other American rivals.

By the way, Citigroup analysts freshly updated their outlook on Delta Air Lines shares to raise their price target to $80 from the previous $77, vs the actual range around $65 per share where the stock just came after a reasonable market correction from last week's and all-time highs. Citigroup said it has included factors like higher revenue per available seat mile, projections of slightly lower fuel prices, increased taxation, a minor rise in share count, and the incorporation of fourth-quarter 2024 results into their financial model, which has projected Delta's profit at $7.49 per share in 2024 and $8.72 in 2025. Delta shares are Buy-rated at Citi, and we agree with their positive estimates in general, while keeping in mind even better price goals somewhere between $82.5 and $85.

On the Way to the Recession: Disney

Movies and series are not the only sources for income for streaming services. One of the major sources is the broadcasting of sport events. All major streaming platforms are now struggling to get the rights to broadcast the NFL Sunday Ticket. Apple has offered $3 billion for it while Disney and Amazon are left behind with a $2 billion bet. Google has recently joined the competition to take over the broadcast from Youtube.

Nevertheless, Disney made other significant deals to broadcast sports like a $2.7 billion contract with Monday Night Football, contracts with La Liga football, and NHL for another $0.6 billion a year. Disney has more contracts to broadcast more than 22,000 sport events for its ESPN+ channel. And that costs a bulk of money. Disney has raised monthly ESPN+ subscription by $3 to $9.99 compared to $5.99 in 2020 and $4.99 in 2018. Another subscription price hike may stimulate users to switch to the Disney Bundle service that includes Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+. ESPN+ itself generates $4.73 per client, only 4% up compared to 2021. Thus, promoting clients to the larger service could be justified, and may add $72 per client a year. The problem is that a further increase of the cost could not be as successful as the monetisation potential, which is rather limited. The increase of the Disney Bundle subscription cost may churn clients to move to cheaper Disney+ or ESPN+ subscriptions. The company received $4.9 billion in subscription revenues in Q2 2022 with a net operational loss of $0.9 billion. Expensive sport broadcasting licenses is the major reason for such a loss. ESPN+ itself generates $110 million a month but this is  not enough to cover licenses fees, even together with advertising revenues. Other streaming giants are generating massive cash flows which they can spend on their development. So, market positions of Disney may suddenly become less sustainable than traditionally considered.

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On the Way to the Recession: Airbnb

Despite strong financials shares of Airbnb have been trading 40% off their prices from the beginning of 2022. Thus, investors have a great opportunity to add shares of the perspective company to their portfolios with a significant discount. The major bullish driver for Airbnb stocks is the recovery of travel activities. The number of apartment owners willing to lease their property is constantly rising and therefore directing more clients to the Airbnb platform. More options for apartment owners and travelers like Split Stays, AirCover, and simplified searches with Airbnb Categories, along with professional photo service to owners, could expand the company’s market share.

The market positioning of Airbnb seems to be very strong as many people are moving to the online working format while changing their locations more frequently. This trend supports the company’s financials as its revenues rose by 70% year-on-year to $1.51 billion in the first quarter of 2022, beating consensus at $1.45 billion. Moreover, revenues grew by 80% year-on-year compared to the pandemic-free Q1 2019.

Cooperation with hotels is another growth source for the platform. Bookings and other services are charging significant commissions, while hotels are not happy with it anymore as the number of bookings declined dramatically during the two pandemic years. Airbnb pioneered cooperation with boutique hotels and may engage other peers very soon.

The enterprise value (EV) is at $58.6 billion with expected revenue at $8.2 billion, up by 38% year-on-year. This puts the forward EV/S at 7.1, which is a very low figure for a company with such strong financials. Net cash flows over the recent 12 months were at $2.9 billion; adjusted EBITDA moved to the positive territory for the first time in the company’s history to $226 million, while the EBITDA margin was at 15%. The number of booking for the first quarter of 2022 rose by 59% to 102.1 million nights. Booking for the 30+ nights segment grew the most to 20% of overall bookings.

The mid-term target price for Airbnd is forecasted above $150 per share.

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Artificial Intelligence and Air Transport: American Airlines

High fuel prices certainly affect airline stock prices. But is it so dramatic? Airlines have fewer flights in 2022 while their revenues are close to 2019 figures. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis the price of an average airline ticket in 1978 was $695 and if we consider  the change in inflation since then, we may see that things are not so bad as  now the price of an average airline ticket is at $297. It is estimated that the average American could have travelled by air 43 times a year back then,  compared to 117 times this year. In other words, rising ticket prices could hardly affect airlines business.

American Airlines has seen a 12% rise for Q2 2022 revenues compared to the same period of 2019 despite the number of passengers dropping by 8%. The risk of rising pilot wages by 17% by 2024 should be mentioned. This raise was decided by the company after a bug was discovered in the internal staff distribution system that prompted a shortage of pilots compared to the scheduled flights. This bug allowed pilots to refuse to pilot 12,075 flights in order to pressure the company to raise salaries. This refusal resulted in a triple hike of pilots’ wages to fly during the hot summer season. Other airlines like Delta and United Airlines have been forced to raise wages too considering understaffing after the COVID-19 pandemic.

American Airlines has a large $25 billion debt that primarily rose due to new aircraft purchases. The company has $12 billion of fixed assets. The company’s management is planning to lower its net debt to $15 billion by 2025, which would increase net cash flows improving its fiscal balance. The forward P/EPS ratio for 2023 is forecasted at 6.4, which is extremely low for an airline.

The mid-term target price for American Airlines is at $20.

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How Apple is Affecting Alphabet?

The strategy to open long positions for Google and short positions for Apple stocks may become a balanced hedge opportunity in times of economic downturn. Apple stock prices were expected to benefit from the development of VR and Apple car segments, but there are no details on the progress on Apple cars so far. It is not even clear if Apple will create these cars on its own or if it will cooperate with third-party car manufacturers.

Alphabet, a Google parent company, has already been testing self-driving vehicles in San Francisco, and is cooperating with Uber Freight to facilitate highway unmanned cargo transports. More than a half of the 4.1 million miles travelled by self-driving vehicles in the United States last year were made by Alphabet vehicles. Apple self-driven car prototypes may not appear before 2024.

Google Glasses are created with technology that was bought together with Focal startup in 2020. Together with Google cloud, Youtube and Waymo, an autonomous driving technology development company, and also a subsidiary of Alphabet, revenues are expected to grow fast over the coming years. The revenues of Alphabet are expected to add 19% in 2023 vs 6.5% by Apple, in 2024 they are planned to grow by 13.8% and 5.5% respectively. In other words, revenues of Alphabet are expected to grow three times more than Apple, while their P/E ratio in 2022 is expected at 14 and 20 respectively.

The mid-term target price for GOOGL shares is at $2,700.

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