新闻和分析

An advance guard of the U.S. banking segment has reported for the ending quarter of 2024 ahead of the corporate earnings season's major chapters, which are still coming in and are supposed to make an overall positive contribution. But what's interesting is, the variety of lending institutions performed a solid organic growth in terms of both revenue and pure income, while the essentially investment giants like Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (BLK) grew up on a much firmer foundation. There is an impression that well-organised asset management, based on proper contextual ad hoc and mid-term stock transactions, is still producing enhanced results when compared to the returns of somewhat shabby loan portfolios at still quite heavy interest rates.

A temporary increase in Blackrock market value was up to 6.5% at its highest intraday point on January 15, following its record ever $11.93 of equity per share (EPS) on an also absolutely highest number of $5.68 billion in quarterly sales. Blackrock's three-month achievements provided a 23.5% annual boost in EPS vs nearly14% expected at EPS of $11.06 per share, which was supposed in analyst pool projections in reputable news outlets like Bloomberg and Reuters. Many investment houses quickly adjusted their price target areas for Blackrock shares, while also keeping Outperform ratings on the stock. As an example, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) revised its price goal for Blackrock to $1,180, citing the investment bank's diversified inflows and global expansion growth initiatives which made the company favorably positioning in the eyes of analysts and investors alike. Blackrock is currently traded around $1000 per share.

However, the Goldman Sachs (GS) effect even surpassed the previous case, with an emergence of totally new peaks above $625 on GS charts, where the shares of this widely recognized investment giant had never been before. The weekly gain was more than 11.5% from $560 per share at the closing price on January 10. Goldman Sachs provided last quarter's EPS at $11.95 per share, beating a $8.12 consensus forecast, with its revenue achieving as high as $13.87 billion vs $12.15 billion previously estimated on average. This means that GS net revenues are up 7% YoY but its adjusted income soared by 54%, so that the firm maintains its clear leadership in global investment banking, including merge and acquisition advisory and wealth management services. Such a strong kind of resilience revived inner projections for EPS of $47.50 for fiscal year 2025 and $52.50 for fiscal year 2026. Isn't this a ready-made reason for targets above $650, or even $700 per share in the coming months, or at least before the end of 2025? By the way, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon was freshly rewarded by an $80 million stock bonus to stay at the helm for another 5 years, and John Waldron, a chief operating officer who is seen by many as a successor to Solomon, who is 63 now, was also awarded with his retention bonus of the same $80 million in restricted stock. However, the huge crowd of Goldman Sachs investors on Wall Street is hardly feeling offended or sad either, given the stock's crazy growth pace by the banking segment's standards.

The very fact that a cycle of lower borrowing rates has started in 2024 on both sides of the pond is helping the banking environment tremendously, which may in turn expand into a real business so soon, but the process may be happening more slowly than many Wall Street inhabitants would like to see due to a pause in the dovish shift by the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators. Wells Fargo (WFC), which also has an increasingly advanced investment focus among its recovering lending business, gained more than 8% since last week's earnings' report, coming very close to all-time peaks around $78 per share. Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) also broke their previous price records, but gained within 5% and 7%, while the Bank of America (BAC) failed to add more than 2% for the reporting week, while its quarterly profits and sales were high but still within its previous lofty standards. The smaller part of investment business versus the credit component for the last three banks mentioned above seems like a reasonable justification for this tendency.

ApeCoin (APE) is down 0.77% this week, trading at $1.029, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) is up 4.7% to $108,170, retreating slightly from a new all-time high of $109,974.

Altcoins, including APE, could see improved performance ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday. The incoming U.S. president is expected to issue around 100 presidential decrees on his first day in office, some of which may provide a boost to the cryptocurrency market.

However, APE and other altcoins may face challenges as they attempt to regain momentum. The anticipated launch of Trump-related altcoins, such as $TRUMP and $MELANIA, could draw significant liquidity away from existing cryptocurrencies. These new tokens, riding on speculation and political hype, might temporarily overshadow other altcoins and dampen their performance.

Harmony (ONE) has surged by 18.8% this week, trading at $0.0274, significantly outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin (BTC) is up 8.8% to $102,330. The altcoin reversed its recent downtrend after falling below the key support level at $0.0250, briefly hitting $0.0210 on Monday. Speculation about a gradual implementation of new U.S. tariff policies and a drop in inflation provided a much-needed boost to market sentiment, driving Harmony’s recovery.

Despite this rally, Harmony faces significant headwinds from negative fundamentals. Binance recently delisted Harmony from its Flexible Rate Loan programme, preventing investors from creating new loan orders and limiting them to closing existing ones. This development has raised concerns among investors and could weigh on Harmony’s outlook.

Should the broader cryptocurrency market enter a correction phase, Harmony’s recent gains could be at risk, with the altcoin potentially resuming its steep decline towards $0.0150.

Here are just two pieces of news which came this week, motivating me to buy a stake in General Motors. The first and foremost thing that knocked on my news feed was an announcement that GM signed a deal with Norway's Vianode firm, which is now going to provide the vehicle maker with graphite anode materials. Regular delivery is necessary for GM to succeed in making enough quantities of its own modern electric batteries. The Ultium Cells joint venture between GM and LG Energy Solution will produce the EV batteries. What is important is that it is a multi-year effective, from 2027 through to 2033.

The project will not only help to advance GM battery technology to drive greater value to its customers, according to GM's senior vice president Mr Jeff Morrison, but it could also make a quite resilient supply chain through GM for other North-American EV makers. The point is that the entire Western ecosystem depends upon the import of critical graphite-based minerals, while China continues to control nearly 95% of the world's supply of natural graphite. However, Vianode will supply its alternative synthetic graphite. Its plant could be located in either the U. S. or Canada, close to GM facilities. Their plans are to produce 80,000 tons of synthetic graphite per year, which would be enough to supply 1.5 million electric cars. Vianode now has its first production plant in Norway. Besides, synthetic graphite reportedly has a 90% lower CO2 footprint than conventional graphite materials used in the industry, with the production process also scaling up easier compared to a normal mining. The situation will give GM a good chance to compete with Tesla as the undisputed American EV leader, joining the global race for cheaper Chinese competitors, as Chinese EVs would probably face Trump's tariff barriers eventually.

Another news was that the U.S. NHTSA regulator, an abbreviation for The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, closed its probe into GM Cruise self-driving vehicles over pedestrian risks. Concerns and the probe since October 2023 were all about the extent to which GM-produced Cruise robotaxis are taking sufficient precautions after five incidents involving a collision between a Cruise vehicle and a pedestrian, including three that involved injuries. When ending its investigation, NHTSA cited Cruise's November 2023 recall and GM's decision to cease Cruise operations, so that GM was ending its money-losing robotaxi development, with no funding work on self-driving robotaxis after investing more than $10 billion since 2016. It is quite clear that Tesla, which has received the necessary permits, is technologically stronger and is going to develop its robotaxi muscles, will dominate the robotaxi market. However, cutting losses by GM is probably not bad news for GM, following a $500,000 fine because of submitting a report, officially recognized as a false one, in order to influence a federal investigation in November.

Tesla certainly remains the market's favourite, and one of my own favourites as well in 2025 in terms of growing its market share and Elon Musk's political clout. However, GM shares could also climb gradually toward the $60s on the back of the listed news.