新闻和分析

Dogecoin (DOGE) surged by 35.5% to $0.3689 this week, retreating from a peak of $0.4394 reached on November 12. The Trump-driven rally in the cryptocurrency market propelled DOGE to remarkable highs, with the token posting an extraordinary 188% increase at its peak. The market euphoria was fueled by Donald Trump’s presidential victory and the appointment of Elon Musk as head of the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, who had endorsed Trump after withdrawing from the Republican primary.

The recent explosive rally has left investors cautious, as Dogecoin reached a strong resistance level at $0.4000. A retracement appears likely, with the next significant support level at $0.3000.

The U.S. Dollar rally got held up at a roadblock near the key multi-month resistance. The common measure of the Greenback's strength against a basket of other major currencies was last seen above 107 in November 2022, and it came very close to passing the barrier this week. An intraday technical retracement below 106.50 was launched on Friday, November 15, due to a profit taking after climbing from under 103.50 since the beginning of the month. However, there are compelling fundamental reasons for keeping or even extending the upside pressure after a short interruption. A possible break through 1.0750 later may challenge the area between 110 and 112.

The impact of so-called Trump trades related to tariff fears outside the U.S. is an essential but not the only driver behind the gathering force of a Dollar "cyclone", as market traders also have to relive certain monetary considerations. The Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Thursday night confirmed that the U.S. economy "is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates". He rationalized that by saying that the strength the central bankers are currently seeing in the labour market gives the ability to approach their decisions more carefully, as the "battle against inflation" remains ongoing. And the latest set of raw data on the consumer price index (CPI) two days ago were exactly in favour of his assumptions, as the CPI rose to 2.6% YoY in October from 2.4% in September, even though it provided a highly expected 0.2% increase MoM in line with the previous month's moderate increase. The U.S. Dollar clearly accelerated its race against the European single currency and the British Pound, as well as the Japanese Yen and the Australian Dollar, immediately after the CPI release, as markets have found evidence for a deceleration in the pace of interest rate reductions.

Nearly 80% of futures traders on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) now expect another 0.25% move down by the Federal Reserve in December and further 0.25% moves to ease the monetary policy in the beginning of 2025. Bets on a December rate cut to the 4.25%-4.50% range saw a substantial rise from the roughly 60% chance priced in before the consumer inflation data release. Broad expectations are that the Federal Reserve may stop or pause its rate cuts as soon as the policy range would be lowered to between 3.75% and 4%. More careful loosening of the interest rate noose helps the U.S. Dollar to strengthen, as most of the currency traders previously relied on a premature concept of faster rate cuts due to recession risks. Jerome Powell referred to the current monetary moves as only "an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance", being aware of the "risks of moving too fast or too slow" on rate cuts. "We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment," Powell argued.

In addition to touching 2-year highs for the U.S. Dollar index after Donald Trump's victory to carry on with potentially inflationary import tariffs, the Federal Reserve's response is another driver for the stronger Dollar to come. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 broad market barometer also retraced to 5,900 area after Jerome Powell's comments, though we see the impact on leading Wall Street stocks remains limited. This would barely impede the further development of the ongoing bullish rally on equities.

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 14.4% this week to $91,200, retreating slightly from a new all-time high of $93,378 set on Wednesday. The Trump-driven crypto rally, which saw Bitcoin surge by 36% since the U.S. presidential election on November 5, appears to be losing momentum as the initial excitement fades.

Options market data points to a projected upper limit of $90,000-100,000 per coin by the end of 2024. While another push toward $100,000 remains possible, the growing presence of retail investors leveraging their trades raises concerns about the rally's durability. Any unexpected negative developments could act as a shock to the market, potentially triggering a significant and painful pullback.

I believe that Elon Musk may benefit much from his heading up a proposed Department of government efficiency, but the electric-car-building owner would hardly participate in any kind of direct lobbying for Tesla business. I admire him as a great influencer of common sense in this growingly insane world, and I am sure he is able to drive a drastic turn to efficiency in bloated federal agencies. Again, Tesla is less dependent on tax credit for selling electric vehicles as other representatives of the industry, so that his brainchild company may more easily survive in case of regulatory changes in this field. Yet, I am not so sure that Tesla benefits from the whole situation cost more than a $250 to above $350 price jump in a nearly one week period, not to mention the stock is now soaring more than 60% compared to its recent retracement dips below $215 per share in the second half of October.

As I wrote before, Musk's projections for a 20% to 30% pace of growth was very cute, but the current level of it corresponds to 6% YoY. Elon also said it's "pointless" to build a $25,000 Tesla for human drivers at the moment, but it is a good question if a newly presented fully autonomous car can be available for this price, or if it will be more expensive because of the mostly inflation-driven environment. I love my stake in Tesla, but even my recently adjusted range for Tesla share price rise has been surpassed by far, when the stock entered a $350+ area. And I sincerely don't like such kind of volatility when the stock tries to erase 6% to 8% of its recent gains, as happened a day before when Tesla price adjusted according to several doubts, even though it climbs 3% to 5% again the following day. Therefore, I just made an easy decision to take profit partially here and now to half the volume of my current position in Tesla.

Beginning today, this means I converted half of my previous stake into cash, leaving the other half of it in persistent hopes for further mid-term gains. Markets still emanate unbridled optimism on Tesla prospects, which may send the stock higher than $400, yet I cannot exclude the possibility of another wave of a strong bearish correction for Tesla that happened not once or twice after reaching new stratospheric heights.