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09.01.2025
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

14.01.2025
Tezos Is Seen Hodling above $1.200

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

16.01.2025
Delta Is Taking Off To Update Its Highs

Delta Air Lines stock rose markedly by low double digits in the first ten days of the new year. The U.S. carrier has served more than 200 million customers in 2024, when it was also recognized by J.D. Power, a leading American data analytics and consumer intelligence company, for being No. 1 in First/Business and Premium Economy Passenger Satisfaction. Travelers became more willing to spend extra money for swanky seats when meeting a high level of service. Delta is just positioning itself as the nation's premium airline. And what's more important, its Christmas quarter's earnings reportedly surpassed average analyst pool projections. Driven by stronger travel demand, smart financial management and capacity discipline, Delta business provided last three-months' profit of $1.85 per share vs $1.28 at the same period one year ago, compared to $1.75 in consensus estimates. On January 10, the airline industry leader put its future profit levels within a range between $0.70 and $1 per share in the current quarter through the end of March, while analyst expectations were focused on $0.77 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. The starting months of each year always perform worse. It is clear that all carriers made losses in the Covid years of 2020-2022, but Delta profits only recovered into a range from $0.25 to $0.45 in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively, but Q1 profit numbers varied from $0.75 to $0.96 even in the three blessed years before the pandemic. Delta added that it is forecasting annual earnings in excess of $7.35 a share, which would be the highest in its 100-year history, based on its planned revenue growth of 7% to 9% in the March quarter from a year ago. The announcement could be compared to an adjusted profit of $6.16 a share in 2024. The company happily breaks through ticket prices' rising effects, almost undisturbed by a reduction in airline seats in the domestic market, which was peculiar for most carriers. Thus, new expectations created a fertile ground for setting new price records, even though price movements on Delta charts look most convincing among its other American rivals.

By the way, Citigroup analysts freshly updated their outlook on Delta Air Lines shares to raise their price target to $80 from the previous $77, vs the actual range around $65 per share where the stock just came after a reasonable market correction from last week's and all-time highs. Citigroup said it has included factors like higher revenue per available seat mile, projections of slightly lower fuel prices, increased taxation, a minor rise in share count, and the incorporation of fourth-quarter 2024 results into their financial model, which has projected Delta's profit at $7.49 per share in 2024 and $8.72 in 2025. Delta shares are Buy-rated at Citi, and we agree with their positive estimates in general, while keeping in mind even better price goals somewhere between $82.5 and $85.

23.01.2025
Ontology Is Sliding Towards $0.2000

Ontology (ONT) is down 2.3% this week, trading at $0.2176, in line with the broader crypto market where Bitcoin (BTC) has declined 2.0% to $101,632. While the new U.S. administration has made some strides toward fairer crypto regulation, Donald Trump has remained silent on the highly anticipated issue of adding Bitcoin to U.S. federal reserves.

Market speculation is rampant, with figures like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink suggesting Bitcoin could surge to $700,000 per coin if sovereign wealth funds begin accumulating. Other forecasts predict Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end. While such projections could foster optimism, the lack of decisive action or announcements regarding U.S. crypto reserves is weighing heavily on the market.

For Ontology, the situation remains bearish. Having breached the critical support at $0.2500 last week, the token is now approaching the $0.2000 level. A failure to provide clear evidence or statements about U.S. federal crypto reserve plans could see ONT fall even further, breaching the $0.2000 mark and deepening its losses.

14.01.2025
Merck Becomes Interesting to Be Added to a Portfolio

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Dogecoin Is Losing Momentum

Dogecoin (DOGE) surged by 35.5% to $0.3689 this week, retreating from a peak of $0.4394 reached on November 12. The Trump-driven rally in the cryptocurrency market propelled DOGE to remarkable highs, with the token posting an extraordinary 188% increase at its peak. The market euphoria was fueled by Donald Trump’s presidential victory and the appointment of Elon Musk as head of the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E), alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, who had endorsed Trump after withdrawing from the Republican primary.

The recent explosive rally has left investors cautious, as Dogecoin reached a strong resistance level at $0.4000. A retracement appears likely, with the next significant support level at $0.3000.

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U.S. Dollar Index May Break Above 107.50

The U.S. Dollar rally got held up at a roadblock near the key multi-month resistance. The common measure of the Greenback's strength against a basket of other major currencies was last seen above 107 in November 2022, and it came very close to passing the barrier this week. An intraday technical retracement below 106.50 was launched on Friday, November 15, due to a profit taking after climbing from under 103.50 since the beginning of the month. However, there are compelling fundamental reasons for keeping or even extending the upside pressure after a short interruption. A possible break through 1.0750 later may challenge the area between 110 and 112.

The impact of so-called Trump trades related to tariff fears outside the U.S. is an essential but not the only driver behind the gathering force of a Dollar "cyclone", as market traders also have to relive certain monetary considerations. The Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Thursday night confirmed that the U.S. economy "is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates". He rationalized that by saying that the strength the central bankers are currently seeing in the labour market gives the ability to approach their decisions more carefully, as the "battle against inflation" remains ongoing. And the latest set of raw data on the consumer price index (CPI) two days ago were exactly in favour of his assumptions, as the CPI rose to 2.6% YoY in October from 2.4% in September, even though it provided a highly expected 0.2% increase MoM in line with the previous month's moderate increase. The U.S. Dollar clearly accelerated its race against the European single currency and the British Pound, as well as the Japanese Yen and the Australian Dollar, immediately after the CPI release, as markets have found evidence for a deceleration in the pace of interest rate reductions.

Nearly 80% of futures traders on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) now expect another 0.25% move down by the Federal Reserve in December and further 0.25% moves to ease the monetary policy in the beginning of 2025. Bets on a December rate cut to the 4.25%-4.50% range saw a substantial rise from the roughly 60% chance priced in before the consumer inflation data release. Broad expectations are that the Federal Reserve may stop or pause its rate cuts as soon as the policy range would be lowered to between 3.75% and 4%. More careful loosening of the interest rate noose helps the U.S. Dollar to strengthen, as most of the currency traders previously relied on a premature concept of faster rate cuts due to recession risks. Jerome Powell referred to the current monetary moves as only "an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance", being aware of the "risks of moving too fast or too slow" on rate cuts. "We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment," Powell argued.

In addition to touching 2-year highs for the U.S. Dollar index after Donald Trump's victory to carry on with potentially inflationary import tariffs, the Federal Reserve's response is another driver for the stronger Dollar to come. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 broad market barometer also retraced to 5,900 area after Jerome Powell's comments, though we see the impact on leading Wall Street stocks remains limited. This would barely impede the further development of the ongoing bullish rally on equities.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Bitcoin May Suffer from Overheated Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen by 14.4% this week to $91,200, retreating slightly from a new all-time high of $93,378 set on Wednesday. The Trump-driven crypto rally, which saw Bitcoin surge by 36% since the U.S. presidential election on November 5, appears to be losing momentum as the initial excitement fades.

Options market data points to a projected upper limit of $90,000-100,000 per coin by the end of 2024. While another push toward $100,000 remains possible, the growing presence of retail investors leveraging their trades raises concerns about the rally's durability. Any unexpected negative developments could act as a shock to the market, potentially triggering a significant and painful pullback.

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B
Bought Expectations, Going to Sell Facts. Part II

I believe that Elon Musk may benefit much from his heading up a proposed Department of government efficiency, but the electric-car-building owner would hardly participate in any kind of direct lobbying for Tesla business. I admire him as a great influencer of common sense in this growingly insane world, and I am sure he is able to drive a drastic turn to efficiency in bloated federal agencies. Again, Tesla is less dependent on tax credit for selling electric vehicles as other representatives of the industry, so that his brainchild company may more easily survive in case of regulatory changes in this field. Yet, I am not so sure that Tesla benefits from the whole situation cost more than a $250 to above $350 price jump in a nearly one week period, not to mention the stock is now soaring more than 60% compared to its recent retracement dips below $215 per share in the second half of October.

As I wrote before, Musk's projections for a 20% to 30% pace of growth was very cute, but the current level of it corresponds to 6% YoY. Elon also said it's "pointless" to build a $25,000 Tesla for human drivers at the moment, but it is a good question if a newly presented fully autonomous car can be available for this price, or if it will be more expensive because of the mostly inflation-driven environment. I love my stake in Tesla, but even my recently adjusted range for Tesla share price rise has been surpassed by far, when the stock entered a $350+ area. And I sincerely don't like such kind of volatility when the stock tries to erase 6% to 8% of its recent gains, as happened a day before when Tesla price adjusted according to several doubts, even though it climbs 3% to 5% again the following day. Therefore, I just made an easy decision to take profit partially here and now to half the volume of my current position in Tesla.

Beginning today, this means I converted half of my previous stake into cash, leaving the other half of it in persistent hopes for further mid-term gains. Markets still emanate unbridled optimism on Tesla prospects, which may send the stock higher than $400, yet I cannot exclude the possibility of another wave of a strong bearish correction for Tesla that happened not once or twice after reaching new stratospheric heights.

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