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16.06.2022

Not Every Tech Stocks are Equally Strong: SAP

SAP stocks have lost 30% since the beginning of 2022. The German tech company develops enterprise software and solutions to manage business operations. For example, one of its services can be used to manage all business travel financial activities and related spending. In other words, it is quite a routine company with a stable and strong cash flow. Once SAP software is installed on a corporate level it is hard to do without it as it is deeply integrated into the business core processes. Moreover, SAP is restructuring its business model around its subscription base and this will allow for cash flows to be even more predictable and balanced through the financial year. Such a model is in favourable to Wall Streel investors.

The war in Ukraine has a 300-million-euro negative effect on SAP business, and it is only a marginal 1% of the overall revenue base for the company, while its dominance in the ERP segment is secure. The revenues added 11% year-on-year to 7.08 euros in Q1 2022. The revenues grew by 6% in Q4 2021.

The company has made some successful M&A deals, acquiring Qualtrics, a cloud-based subscription software platform, that delivered +48% revenue in Q1 2022. This company had a gross margin above 90% in 2021 while SAP’s gross margin was at 70% for the same year.

SAP management promised to triple its cloud-based business by 2025, and boost revenues to 22 billion euros, while operational profit is forecasted to grow by 40% from the current 8.4 billion euros. This is a very extensive growth for the company that has a high P/E ratio at 17. The company may not perform very high growth rates as its younger tech sector peers, but it may certainly recover to new all-time highs in the long-term perspective. However, the sector may require several quarters to recover, and the recovery would be headed by such reliable companies as SAP with a low risk profile.

11.08.2022

Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12^th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

12.04.2024

CarMax Is More Committed to Innovations But Market Conditions Make It Sinking

CarMax (KMX) quarterly report came out on April 11, vividly displaying why any immediate investment into the used car market still sounds like not a good idea. The stock quickly lost ground, wasting a double-digit number of percentage points as a response to its net income drop to $0.32 per share against $0.44 cents per share a year ago, also compared to much stronger $0.52, $0.75 and $1.44 per share in the previous three quarters. Analyst polls estimated a net income per share at about $0.50, which would be 56% better than the reality.

This almost looks like a financial fiasco in the company's efforts to withstand slowing demand in the segment. CarMax Q4 2023 revenue decreased by 1.7% to $5.6 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of $5.8 billion, indicating the lack of gross marginality of the business. This happened even though the total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots grew by 9% YoY to 2.27 million units in March, according to Cox Automotive data. CarMax CEOs delayed their own goal of selling over 2 million units annually, when measuring combined retail and wholesale actions, to between 2026 and 2030, from its prior target of 2026.

A "higher-for-longer" Fed fund rates is demonstrably bad for car sales volumes, be it new generation Tesla cars or just pre-owned vehicles, while operating costs for warehouses are growing. Besides, easing some semiconductor constraints in North America may help marginally improving orders for new cars, leaving used-car sales under the same pressure. Meanwhile, the entrance of Asia players offered significant discounts. Therefore, North American and European operators of the used car market need to sell many great cars at cheaper prices. CarMax already posted its official warning of a potential "hit to profit-sharing revenue" due to inflationary impact to its partners, before last Christmas. "While affordability of used cars remains the challenge for consumers, pricing improved during the quarter," Enrique Mayor-Mora, executive vice president and CFO admitted.

It was only a smaller division of CarMax Auto Finance, which managed to get a 19% better income due to "a lower provision for loan losses" and an increase in average managed receivables. Yet, this was rather news from the side business, which was clearly not enough to be optimistic. The company added that it is now focused on enhancing its omni-channel experience and leveraging data science and automation. Carmax said it delivered "strong retail and wholesale" graphic processors, which helped to increase "used saleable inventory units" more than 10%, but used total inventory units was unchanged despite innovations. The company seeks to achieve efficiency improvements in its core operations, believing that they "are well-positioned to drive growth as the market turns", according to Enrique Mayor-Mora. This may be useful to strengthen competitiveness in better times for the segment. Yet, the current challenges are too heavy to be ignored by market crowds.

12.05.2022

Perspective ETFs in the ESG energy segment: Invesco Global Clean Energy Portfolio ETF

This ETF invests in green energy ventures. The pandemic led to a 300% increase of its share price. But since the beginning of 2022 they have lost 30%, twice as much as the S&P 500 SPY ETF. The net capital which has outflown from the Fund has reached $31.5 billion over the last 12 months, while the major outflow was recorded in December 2021. However, its shares are still seen to be overbought as P/E multiplier is at 24 that is well above the average of 20 for the EFT’s that are linked to the S&P 500, while the dividend yields are above PBD’s numbers.

Inflation in the United States is rising negatively affecting all shares with a high P/E ratio. So, we may expect a further decline of the PBD share price and other similar assets that cannot be protected from rising risks. Traditional energies are looking more attractive on this background and could be a perfect hedge asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

15.09.2022

Safe Haven Assets for Long-Term Investments: Broadcom

Broadcom is an American semiconductor and infrastructure software development company. Soon it is expected to close a merger deal with VMware, a cloud computing and visualization company, that will open new cross-sales opportunities for Broadcom to boost its revenues. Broadcom stocks are now 25% off their peak values.

According to the Q3 FY 2022 financial report that ended July 31, consolidated revenues grew by 25% year-over-year to $8.46 billion, and EPS went up by 40% to $9.73 per share. The semiconductors segment, that added 32% year-over-year, was the primary driver for the company’s profit. The company’s free cash flows (FCF) topped $4.3 billion, allowing it to spend $1.7 billion on dividends and 1.5 billion on the shares repurchase program. The company is planning to continue spending at least 50% of FCF on dividends that added 43% every year on average since 2016.

According to the Q4 FY 2022 forward guidance, the company is expecting its revenues to go up by 20% year-over-year to $8.9 billion and for EDITDA to go up by 25% to $5.6 billion. Broadcom has great experience in expanding its product portfolio by M&A operations, and apparently it will continue on this way. The company is also expected to benefit greatly from the $52.7 billion CHIPS bill in the United States.

MetadoroIn-house analytics

17.09.2025

Weak Payrolls + 0.4% CPI Spike → 0.25% Rate Cut

The bullish rally on Wall Street remains in progress, with the U.S. Dollar continuing to lose weight against the basket of rival reserve currencies. This happens with the clear understanding among the market community that the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision today is essentially predetermined by the whole set of recent economic data. We are confident in the small first step reduction for the U.S. borrowing costs, from 4.25-4.50% to 4.00-4.25% on Wednesday.

The so-called Fed's "dual mandate" from the Congress includes only two goals, which are supporting maximum employment and stable prices. Weak U.S. jobs data of September 7, meaning only 22,000 new non-farm payrolls in August, and updates to the downside for the two previous months were well below average economists’ forecasts. Fed officials cannot remain inactive, as they need to cover their asses under those weakening conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already expressed their common concern about the U.S. labour market. But a sudden 0.4% MoM spike in the consumer price index (CPI) last week will help in justifying a small 25 bp slash instead of a larger 50 bp step down. In-line slice of the U.S. inflation pressure especially point to only a moderate rate cut by the Fed as the consumer inflation pace was much faster than 0.2% a month ago and also slightly above average forecasts of 0.3%. The annual inflation gauge came out at 2.9% for the last 12 months from September 2024 to August 2025, compared to 2.7% released in the previous month.

Weak jobs and persistent inflation are the two reactants that necessarily lead to a chemical reaction with a 0.25% rate cut in the sediment. The remaining space in the Fed decision vessel can be taken up by rhetorical water, which the markets are no longer of much interest to. Again, what the vast majority of the market expects from the Fed, the Fed always performs, so as not to rock the boat. The U.S. central banker's verdict couldn't be any different, because they are barely aimed at showing signs of panic like being ahead of entering recession. Indeed, any larger rate cut is relevant only in a near-recession scenario. Well, when this is highly likely confirmed by the Fed official statement in just a few hours, some minor technical volatility may take place on some stocks and major indexes, but no fundamental shake-ups or shake-downs are expected. After all, when the dust is settled, most market tools will continue to drive in the same direction they used to do it during the last several weeks.

The key role, therefore, is mentioned for the dot plot projections of the Federal Open Market Committee. As to the crowd's expectations, it should indicate two more interest rate cuts before the end of 2025. In fact, the same FedWatch tool demonstrates that 80% are expecting a second 0.25% slash at the end of October, and over 70% are betting on a potentially third rate cut move in mid-December as well. So, this so-far empty field in the Fed's statement seems pre-filled already, favouring the hand-rubbing bulls on Wall Street and the Dollar bears on major foreign exchange pairs.

If the Fed pledges two additional rate cut slashes on its dot plot for the remainder of 2025, then next and bigger objectives down to 92.50 for the U.S. Dollar Index (DX) vs the majors basket in for the next 4-6 weeks, will become quite realistic, with DX being traded at nearly 96.50 at the moment. Nearest target prices like 144 and even well below are possible for USDJPY in this scenario, as the slide of the Greenback against the Japanese currency has so far remained far behind the Dollar selling mood in US-European pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF. Meanwhile, the prospects of 1.20 for the single currency or 1.40 for the Cable will depend mostly on the corresponding synchronous or asynchronous interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England soon. Anyway, the door for the Greenback weakness would be wide open if the Fed becomes more dovish.

Meanwhile, the current rally in equity markets may be challenged by a very short-time correction, because of a "bought expectation, sold facts" scenario in some clearly overbought stocks. We expect that the Big Long mood will generally continue, as mid-caps are already supporting the AI flagships and other blue chips and may even further be encouraged with softening monetary conditions.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez

Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/

17.09.2025

Synthetix Is Ready to Rally

Synthetix (SNX) is down 4.0% to $0.665, trailing Bitcoin (BTC), which is edging higher by 0.38% to $116,500. The token has been locked in a sideways pattern since April, trading between $0.500 and $0.800, with the range tightening to $0.600–$0.750 over the past six weeks , a pattern mirrored across many altcoins. The Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday is expected to be the next catalyst. While a 25 bp cut is already priced in, dovish guidance could ignite momentum in the altcoin market. For SNX, the nearest resistance sits at $1.000, making it the likely first upside target.

SNXUSD

1019

Rafael Quintana Martinez

16.09.2025

ApeCoin Is Building Momentum

ApeCoin (APE) is down 4.3% to $0.578 this week, underperforming Bitcoin (BTC), which slipped 0.68% to $115,390. The token continues to consolidate between the $0.500 support and the middle of the downtrend channel. This narrowing range suggests that a strong impulse is building, with conditions pointing to an upside move. APE has never fallen below the $0.500 support, reinforcing its importance. A decisive breakout is expected by early October. Adding to the bullish case, ApeCoin recently announced a collaboration with Solana, a development not yet priced in, which could provide additional momentum once the breakout occurs.

APEUSD

906

Rafael Quintana Martinez

16.09.2025

Wall-Mart Ready to Update ATH

Wal-Mart (WMT) shares have recovered swiftly from the April dip to $79.59, advancing to $100 in early May and rejoining the middle of the uptrend. This rebound reflects notable strength in the stock. Prices are now trading at $103.40, close to the all-time high of $105.11.

A breakout above the record high appears likely. If confirmed, this could accelerate momentum toward the upper boundary of the uptrend channel, implying an advance of approximately 15–16%.

From a trading perspective, entries in the $100–104 range may be attractive, with upside targets in the $115–120 zone, just below projected trend resistance. A protective stop could be considered around $97.00 to manage downside risk.

WMT

1052