News and analysis

An advance guard of the U.S. banking segment has reported for the ending quarter of 2024 ahead of the corporate earnings season's major chapters, which are still coming in and are supposed to make an overall positive contribution. But what's interesting is, the variety of lending institutions performed a solid organic growth in terms of both revenue and pure income, while the essentially investment giants like Goldman Sachs (GS) and BlackRock (BLK) grew up on a much firmer foundation. There is an impression that well-organised asset management, based on proper contextual ad hoc and mid-term stock transactions, is still producing enhanced results when compared to the returns of somewhat shabby loan portfolios at still quite heavy interest rates.

A temporary increase in Blackrock market value was up to 6.5% at its highest intraday point on January 15, following its record ever $11.93 of equity per share (EPS) on an also absolutely highest number of $5.68 billion in quarterly sales. Blackrock's three-month achievements provided a 23.5% annual boost in EPS vs nearly14% expected at EPS of $11.06 per share, which was supposed in analyst pool projections in reputable news outlets like Bloomberg and Reuters. Many investment houses quickly adjusted their price target areas for Blackrock shares, while also keeping Outperform ratings on the stock. As an example, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) revised its price goal for Blackrock to $1,180, citing the investment bank's diversified inflows and global expansion growth initiatives which made the company favorably positioning in the eyes of analysts and investors alike. Blackrock is currently traded around $1000 per share.

However, the Goldman Sachs (GS) effect even surpassed the previous case, with an emergence of totally new peaks above $625 on GS charts, where the shares of this widely recognized investment giant had never been before. The weekly gain was more than 11.5% from $560 per share at the closing price on January 10. Goldman Sachs provided last quarter's EPS at $11.95 per share, beating a $8.12 consensus forecast, with its revenue achieving as high as $13.87 billion vs $12.15 billion previously estimated on average. This means that GS net revenues are up 7% YoY but its adjusted income soared by 54%, so that the firm maintains its clear leadership in global investment banking, including merge and acquisition advisory and wealth management services. Such a strong kind of resilience revived inner projections for EPS of $47.50 for fiscal year 2025 and $52.50 for fiscal year 2026. Isn't this a ready-made reason for targets above $650, or even $700 per share in the coming months, or at least before the end of 2025? By the way, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon was freshly rewarded by an $80 million stock bonus to stay at the helm for another 5 years, and John Waldron, a chief operating officer who is seen by many as a successor to Solomon, who is 63 now, was also awarded with his retention bonus of the same $80 million in restricted stock. However, the huge crowd of Goldman Sachs investors on Wall Street is hardly feeling offended or sad either, given the stock's crazy growth pace by the banking segment's standards.

The very fact that a cycle of lower borrowing rates has started in 2024 on both sides of the pond is helping the banking environment tremendously, which may in turn expand into a real business so soon, but the process may be happening more slowly than many Wall Street inhabitants would like to see due to a pause in the dovish shift by the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators. Wells Fargo (WFC), which also has an increasingly advanced investment focus among its recovering lending business, gained more than 8% since last week's earnings' report, coming very close to all-time peaks around $78 per share. Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) also broke their previous price records, but gained within 5% and 7%, while the Bank of America (BAC) failed to add more than 2% for the reporting week, while its quarterly profits and sales were high but still within its previous lofty standards. The smaller part of investment business versus the credit component for the last three banks mentioned above seems like a reasonable justification for this tendency.

Delta Air Lines stock rose markedly by low double digits in the first ten days of the new year. The U.S. carrier has served more than 200 million customers in 2024, when it was also recognized by J.D. Power, a leading American data analytics and consumer intelligence company, for being No. 1 in First/Business and Premium Economy Passenger Satisfaction. Travelers became more willing to spend extra money for swanky seats when meeting a high level of service. Delta is just positioning itself as the nation's premium airline. And what's more important, its Christmas quarter's earnings reportedly surpassed average analyst pool projections. Driven by stronger travel demand, smart financial management and capacity discipline, Delta business provided last three-months' profit of $1.85 per share vs $1.28 at the same period one year ago, compared to $1.75 in consensus estimates. On January 10, the airline industry leader put its future profit levels within a range between $0.70 and $1 per share in the current quarter through the end of March, while analyst expectations were focused on $0.77 cents, according to data compiled by LSEG. The starting months of each year always perform worse. It is clear that all carriers made losses in the Covid years of 2020-2022, but Delta profits only recovered into a range from $0.25 to $0.45 in the first quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively, but Q1 profit numbers varied from $0.75 to $0.96 even in the three blessed years before the pandemic. Delta added that it is forecasting annual earnings in excess of $7.35 a share, which would be the highest in its 100-year history, based on its planned revenue growth of 7% to 9% in the March quarter from a year ago. The announcement could be compared to an adjusted profit of $6.16 a share in 2024. The company happily breaks through ticket prices' rising effects, almost undisturbed by a reduction in airline seats in the domestic market, which was peculiar for most carriers. Thus, new expectations created a fertile ground for setting new price records, even though price movements on Delta charts look most convincing among its other American rivals.

By the way, Citigroup analysts freshly updated their outlook on Delta Air Lines shares to raise their price target to $80 from the previous $77, vs the actual range around $65 per share where the stock just came after a reasonable market correction from last week's and all-time highs. Citigroup said it has included factors like higher revenue per available seat mile, projections of slightly lower fuel prices, increased taxation, a minor rise in share count, and the incorporation of fourth-quarter 2024 results into their financial model, which has projected Delta's profit at $7.49 per share in 2024 and $8.72 in 2025. Delta shares are Buy-rated at Citi, and we agree with their positive estimates in general, while keeping in mind even better price goals somewhere between $82.5 and $85.

Merck & Co (MRK) stocks have shown signs of becoming a compelling buy opportunity. Over the past six months, the stock has been in a downtrend, declining 29.8% to $94.50 per share. However, since mid-November, MRK has demonstrated a reversal of momentum, rebounding by 10.0% to reach $104.87 on December 5. Following a brief pullback and consolidation period, the stock has retested the downtrend resistance and appears poised to continue its upward trajectory.

With prices currently positioned to target $110.00, this represents a potential 9-10% upside from the present levels. Setting a stop-loss at $93.50 aligns with a prudent risk management strategy, providing protection against further downside while allowing for upside potential. The recent consolidation phase further supports the case for a breakout, making this an attractive moment to consider initiating or adding to a position in MRK.

Tezos (XTZ) has declined slightly by 0.2% this week, trading at $1.249, following Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop to $89,158, which triggered widespread altcoin sell-offs due to concerns of a potential further decline in BTC to $80,000. However, Bitcoin managed to hold above the critical support level at $89,000-$91,000, offering some relief to the broader crypto market.

Speculation about a shift in U.S. trade policy has provided additional support to crypto assets. Reports suggest the new U.S. administration may pursue a gradual increase in tariffs rather than an abrupt hike, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures and lead to a less aggressive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve.

This development is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market and may help Tezos maintain its position above the key support level of $1.200.

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.