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12.05.2022
Perspective ETFs in the ESG energy segment: Invesco Global Clean Energy Portfolio ETF

This ETF invests in green energy ventures. The pandemic led to a 300% increase of its share price. But since the beginning of 2022 they have lost 30%, twice as much as the S&P 500 SPY ETF. The net capital which has outflown from the Fund has reached $31.5 billion over the last 12 months, while the major outflow was recorded in December 2021. However, its shares are still seen to be overbought as P/E multiplier is at 24 that is well above the average of 20 for the EFT’s that are linked to the S&P 500, while the dividend yields are above PBD’s numbers.

Inflation in the United States is rising negatively affecting all shares with a high P/E ratio. So, we may expect a further decline of the PBD share price and other similar assets that cannot be protected from rising risks. Traditional energies are looking more attractive on this background and could be a perfect hedge asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties. 

11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

26.11.2024
Meta Could Score 18% in the Next Few Months

Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has been trading sideways within the $550-600 range since late September, underperforming the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, which has gained 6.0% during the same period.

While META shares remain within an ascending channel, they are currently resting at the support of the uptrend. Historically, each time the stock reached this level, it rebounded upwards by 15-18%. Consequently, the share price is likely to rise to $650-670 over the coming months. I plan to open a long trade at $550-570, targeting a potential upside of $185. A stop-loss could be placed below recent lows at $480.

12.04.2024
CarMax Is More Committed to Innovations But Market Conditions Make It Sinking

CarMax (KMX) quarterly report came out on April 11, vividly displaying why any immediate investment into the used car market still sounds like not a good idea. The stock quickly lost ground, wasting a double-digit number of percentage points as a response to its net income drop to $0.32 per share against $0.44 cents per share a year ago, also compared to much stronger $0.52, $0.75 and $1.44 per share in the previous three quarters. Analyst polls estimated a net income per share at about $0.50, which would be 56% better than the reality.

This almost looks like a financial fiasco in the company's efforts to withstand slowing demand in the segment. CarMax Q4 2023 revenue decreased by 1.7% to $5.6 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of $5.8 billion, indicating the lack of gross marginality of the business. This happened even though the total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots grew by 9% YoY to 2.27 million units in March, according to Cox Automotive data. CarMax CEOs delayed their own goal of selling over 2 million units annually, when measuring combined retail and wholesale actions, to between 2026 and 2030, from its prior target of 2026.

A "higher-for-longer" Fed fund rates is demonstrably bad for car sales volumes, be it new generation Tesla cars or just pre-owned vehicles, while operating costs for warehouses are growing. Besides, easing some semiconductor constraints in North America may help marginally improving orders for new cars, leaving used-car sales under the same pressure. Meanwhile, the entrance of Asia players offered significant discounts. Therefore, North American and European operators of the used car market need to sell many great cars at cheaper prices. CarMax already posted its official warning of a potential "hit to profit-sharing revenue" due to inflationary impact to its partners, before last Christmas. "While affordability of used cars remains the challenge for consumers, pricing improved during the quarter," Enrique Mayor-Mora, executive vice president and CFO admitted.

It was only a smaller division of CarMax Auto Finance, which managed to get a 19% better income due to "a lower provision for loan losses" and an increase in average managed receivables. Yet, this was rather news from the side business, which was clearly not enough to be optimistic. The company added that it is now focused on enhancing its omni-channel experience and leveraging data science and automation. Carmax said it delivered "strong retail and wholesale" graphic processors, which helped to increase "used saleable inventory units" more than 10%, but used total inventory units was unchanged despite innovations. The company seeks to achieve efficiency improvements in its core operations, believing that they "are well-positioned to drive growth as the market turns", according to Enrique Mayor-Mora. This may be useful to strengthen competitiveness in better times for the segment. Yet, the current challenges are too heavy to be ignored by market crowds.

15.09.2022
Safe Haven Assets for Long-Term Investments: Broadcom

Broadcom is an American semiconductor and infrastructure software development company. Soon it is expected to close a merger deal with VMware, a cloud computing and visualization company, that will open new cross-sales opportunities for Broadcom to boost its revenues. Broadcom stocks are now 25% off their peak values.

According to the Q3 FY 2022 financial report that ended July 31, consolidated revenues grew by 25% year-over-year to $8.46 billion, and EPS went up by 40% to $9.73 per share. The semiconductors segment, that added 32% year-over-year, was the primary driver for the company’s profit. The company’s free cash flows (FCF) topped $4.3 billion, allowing it to spend $1.7 billion on dividends and 1.5 billion on the shares repurchase program. The company is planning to continue spending at least 50% of FCF on dividends that added 43% every year on average since 2016. 

According to the Q4 FY 2022 forward guidance, the company is expecting its revenues to go up by 20% year-over-year to $8.9 billion and for EDITDA to go up by 25% to $5.6 billion. Broadcom has great experience in expanding its product portfolio by M&A operations, and apparently it will continue on this way. The company is also expected to benefit greatly from the $52.7 billion CHIPS bill in the United States.


Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Buying Bouncing Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 (J225), a major Japanese stock market gauge, appears to be significantly oversold. The benchmark has plummeted by 27.8% from its July high of 42,515 points, hitting a low of 30,705 points on August 5, the lowest since October 31, 2023. This rapid decline has been driven by panic sell-offs. Even if the downward trend continues in the mid-term, the benchmark is likely to experience at least a dead cat bounce.

Currently, the entry point seems appropriate as J225 has reached its trend support. My target range is 37,000-38,000 points, aligning with the average of the ascending channel and a horizontal support level, marking the starting point of the recent decline. A stop-loss could be set at 29,500 points.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
IOTA Is in a Free Fall to $0.1000

IOTA (IOT) experienced a significant drop of 15.0%, falling to $0.1108 on Monday, marking the largest decline since April 13. At one point during the day, the token's loss reached 21.2%. Despite this sharp decline, the IOTA project has been on a positive trajectory with notable developments. The latest IOTA 2.0 network, launched in June, now operates on Proof-of-Stake principles. Additionally, the IOTA EVM ecosystem, which was approved by the community in August, has allocated 172,000 tokens to improve liquidity. These advancements had previously supported the token's price.

However, the overall risk-off sentiment in the markets, driven by fears of a global recession, has erased these gains and sent token prices into a free fall. If the support at $0.1000 fails to hold, prices may decline further to $0.0500 or even lower. Conversely, if the support holds, a strong rebound could occur, potentially pushing prices up to $0.2000.

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Lulled by a Linear Climb to the Top

"What's the buzz? Tell me what's a-happening. What's the buzz? Tell me what's happening" (c) That's a line from 'Jesus Christ Superstar' soundtrack, as I just got the song stuck in my head when watching this kind of a bloodbath in the markets. And so, "Don't you mind about the future? Don't you try to think ahead?" Of course, we tried and we did. But not enough, as can be seen. Well, I personally sold all my stake in NVIDIA weeks ago, and shared this news with you, folks, running a risk of being ridiculed, even though NVIDIA continued to rise much higher. Sporadically, I reduced my share in other chip- and AI-related stocks to take some profit on the way, yet at the same time I also was guilty of adding extra volumes to some of my favourites like Dell, Micron Technology, Broadcom and AMD expecting even greater outcome from these roaring tigers of the cloudy big data revolution. Anyway, I don't regret a thing too much, as I am still sure most of them just entered into a stage of deeper and faster correction, no more than that, as I see the current happenings as not a fatal collapse of the whole uptrend or something similar. No and no, far from it. But I have missed an instant, when it was reasonable to run away and to convert most of my invested money into cash for a while, like many of you missed it, surely. Lulled by a linear climb to the top, all quiet and calm uptrend strategists are now gone with the stormy wind as the S&P 500 drop approaches 5,100.

Now NVIDIA is going to lose double digits to drop at least to $95 in the pre-market trading today, probably leading Broadcom to below $130, AMD to below $125 for the first time in 2024, Dell and Micron to below $90, and so on and so forth. I don't have Apple or Tesla in my portfolio, so I don't care about their price drops, and I expected Microsoft at lower levels to buy, and so I am even happy it may lose more weight now. But it still doesn't seem like the right moment to buy any of the listed stocks today or maybe tomorrow, isn't it? There are not so many catchers of falling knives around. Most of the crowd would like to get them later off the ground. O.K., let's "save tomorrow for tomorrow, think about today instead". And so, "I could give you facts and figures", without giving accurate "plans and forecasts" right at the moment and without responding to a crowd's tough question of "When do we ride into Jerusalem?", as it's too early to answer.

First of all, I don't think that weaker U.S. jobs data to ignite fears of recession should be blamed. Last Friday was not Good Friday or judgement day for Wall Street, it was just a normal day. The risk of recession is still limited, and the same crowd recently dreamed about smaller non-farm payrolls in order to make the Federal Reserve cut its rates sooner than later. And now, we got this opportunity, what's wrong with it? Yet, last Wednesday actually was the day that supplied our pork. The Bank of Japan raised its national interest rates by some minor 0.15%, from its near-zero 0.10% to its still near zero 0.25%, but for the first time since... I can't even remember... since 2008, I believe. The Bank of Japan also halved its bond purchase program to start saying good-bye cheap funding money for the country's stock market rally, which was mostly unfounded unlike Wall Street rally. A volt-free, de-energized Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 immediately started to sink, yet didn't send an S.O.S. message for anybody until now, it plummeted and bumped its head only this Monday when it lost a tremendous 13.47% in one trading session to waste all of its ballooned 2024 achievements.

Of course, this acts in a complicated combination with still overheated US techs. The giants' fall already caused correction moves, but the Japanese domino effect on the American, European and global markets was not long in coming, already late Friday night, when the truth of approaching Japanese collapse became clear to big investment houses. And they hurried to compose an urban myth of US recession with supposedly a 0.5% Fed rate cut being nearly inevitable to avoid killing the US and world's economy. Yet, the root of all evil on the markets is not there, as I feel. For the S&P 500, an attempt of touching levels below 5,000, which is possible, is not a fatal error. So, when dust eventually settles somehow on Asia markets, with the Japanese Yen and the Chinese Yuan being on the ride, the U.S. Treasury yields would stop falling, and so the Wall Street indexes and chip stocks would quickly rebound as investors' money simply has no other way and refuse where to hide from all this world's troubles. At that time, all of us will have another chance to join the Mary Magdalene's sweet aria: "Try not to get worried, try not to turn on to problems that upset you, oh... Don't you know, everything's alright, yes, everything's fine, and let the world turn without you tonight..."

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Ontology is Seen Weakening Along with the Market

Ontology (ONT) is losing 10.0% to $0.1800 this week, underperforming the market. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped by 5.2% to $64,414. ONT has been hovering around $0.2000 with attempts to climb above this level, but it failed to do so and is now dropping along with the rest of the crypto market. If the general market correction continues, ONT could drop to the support at $0.1000. Alternatively, if the market resumes a rally in August, the token may jump above $0.2000.

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