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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

12.04.2024
CarMax Is More Committed to Innovations But Market Conditions Make It Sinking

CarMax (KMX) quarterly report came out on April 11, vividly displaying why any immediate investment into the used car market still sounds like not a good idea. The stock quickly lost ground, wasting a double-digit number of percentage points as a response to its net income drop to $0.32 per share against $0.44 cents per share a year ago, also compared to much stronger $0.52, $0.75 and $1.44 per share in the previous three quarters. Analyst polls estimated a net income per share at about $0.50, which would be 56% better than the reality.

This almost looks like a financial fiasco in the company's efforts to withstand slowing demand in the segment. CarMax Q4 2023 revenue decreased by 1.7% to $5.6 billion, slightly below consensus expectations of $5.8 billion, indicating the lack of gross marginality of the business. This happened even though the total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots grew by 9% YoY to 2.27 million units in March, according to Cox Automotive data. CarMax CEOs delayed their own goal of selling over 2 million units annually, when measuring combined retail and wholesale actions, to between 2026 and 2030, from its prior target of 2026.

A "higher-for-longer" Fed fund rates is demonstrably bad for car sales volumes, be it new generation Tesla cars or just pre-owned vehicles, while operating costs for warehouses are growing. Besides, easing some semiconductor constraints in North America may help marginally improving orders for new cars, leaving used-car sales under the same pressure. Meanwhile, the entrance of Asia players offered significant discounts. Therefore, North American and European operators of the used car market need to sell many great cars at cheaper prices. CarMax already posted its official warning of a potential "hit to profit-sharing revenue" due to inflationary impact to its partners, before last Christmas. "While affordability of used cars remains the challenge for consumers, pricing improved during the quarter," Enrique Mayor-Mora, executive vice president and CFO admitted.

It was only a smaller division of CarMax Auto Finance, which managed to get a 19% better income due to "a lower provision for loan losses" and an increase in average managed receivables. Yet, this was rather news from the side business, which was clearly not enough to be optimistic. The company added that it is now focused on enhancing its omni-channel experience and leveraging data science and automation. Carmax said it delivered "strong retail and wholesale" graphic processors, which helped to increase "used saleable inventory units" more than 10%, but used total inventory units was unchanged despite innovations. The company seeks to achieve efficiency improvements in its core operations, believing that they "are well-positioned to drive growth as the market turns", according to Enrique Mayor-Mora. This may be useful to strengthen competitiveness in better times for the segment. Yet, the current challenges are too heavy to be ignored by market crowds.

12.05.2022
Perspective ETFs in the ESG energy segment: Invesco Global Clean Energy Portfolio ETF

This ETF invests in green energy ventures. The pandemic led to a 300% increase of its share price. But since the beginning of 2022 they have lost 30%, twice as much as the S&P 500 SPY ETF. The net capital which has outflown from the Fund has reached $31.5 billion over the last 12 months, while the major outflow was recorded in December 2021. However, its shares are still seen to be overbought as P/E multiplier is at 24 that is well above the average of 20 for the EFT’s that are linked to the S&P 500, while the dividend yields are above PBD’s numbers.

Inflation in the United States is rising negatively affecting all shares with a high P/E ratio. So, we may expect a further decline of the PBD share price and other similar assets that cannot be protected from rising risks. Traditional energies are looking more attractive on this background and could be a perfect hedge asset amidst geopolitical uncertainties. 

26.11.2024
Meta Could Score 18% in the Next Few Months

Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has been trading sideways within the $550-600 range since late September, underperforming the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, which has gained 6.0% during the same period.

While META shares remain within an ascending channel, they are currently resting at the support of the uptrend. Historically, each time the stock reached this level, it rebounded upwards by 15-18%. Consequently, the share price is likely to rise to $650-670 over the coming months. I plan to open a long trade at $550-570, targeting a potential upside of $185. A stop-loss could be placed below recent lows at $480.

15.09.2022
Safe Haven Assets for Long-Term Investments: Broadcom

Broadcom is an American semiconductor and infrastructure software development company. Soon it is expected to close a merger deal with VMware, a cloud computing and visualization company, that will open new cross-sales opportunities for Broadcom to boost its revenues. Broadcom stocks are now 25% off their peak values.

According to the Q3 FY 2022 financial report that ended July 31, consolidated revenues grew by 25% year-over-year to $8.46 billion, and EPS went up by 40% to $9.73 per share. The semiconductors segment, that added 32% year-over-year, was the primary driver for the company’s profit. The company’s free cash flows (FCF) topped $4.3 billion, allowing it to spend $1.7 billion on dividends and 1.5 billion on the shares repurchase program. The company is planning to continue spending at least 50% of FCF on dividends that added 43% every year on average since 2016. 

According to the Q4 FY 2022 forward guidance, the company is expecting its revenues to go up by 20% year-over-year to $8.9 billion and for EDITDA to go up by 25% to $5.6 billion. Broadcom has great experience in expanding its product portfolio by M&A operations, and apparently it will continue on this way. The company is also expected to benefit greatly from the $52.7 billion CHIPS bill in the United States.


Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
VeChain Is Suffering on Rising Borrowing Costs

VeChain (VET) has fallen 12.7% this week, trading at $0.0445, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has declined by 5.6% to $93,220, with bearish momentum building as it approaches key support at $89,000-$91,000. This decline is largely attributed to tightening monetary conditions in the United States, which continue to weigh on risk assets. Investor confidence is further shaken by significant net outflows from spot BTC-ETFs, which lost $583 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow on record.

If BTC falls below the critical support level of $89,000-$91,000, VeChain is likely to extend its losses, with prices potentially declining another 10% to $0.0400. A sustained drop in BTC could push VET even lower, towards $0.0300. Conversely, a strong rebound in BTC prices to the $100,000 level could drive VET back up to $0.0500, representing a recovery of approximately 12% from current levels.

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Rafael Quintana Martinez
Money Manager de alto rendimiento, con una sólida formación académica, profesional y de campo. Más de 9 años de experiencia especializada en el comercio de mercados financieros internacionales. La devoción, la fiabilidad, la responsabilidad y la ética impulsan mi vida. Actualmente me desempeño como Analista Senior para Metadoro. https://metadoro.com/es https://mx.investing.com/members/contributors/235587671/ https://es.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/rE9gVips/
Tron Is Ready for another Upside Round

Tron (TRX) is surging 5.0% to $0.2584, outperforming the broader crypto market as Bitcoin (BTC) rises 2.5% to $96,450. TRX is testing key resistance for the second time this month after an earlier rally to $0.4490, representing a staggering 118% gain. This rally was fueled by Tron founder Justin Sun's $30 million investment in a crypto project linked to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, potentially signaling the resolution of Sun’s legal challenges.

TRX’s previous attempt to break the $0.3000 resistance ended in a pullback, but a renewed push could overcome this barrier. Sun’s flamboyant marketing strategies continue to make headlines. One notable example was his purchase of a taped banana artwork for $6.2 million, part of the Comedian exhibit, which he ate in a widely publicized stunt—an unconventional move that captured global attention.

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Wall Street Goals for 2025

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq, which are the world's most important trading platforms, end the year at even higher levels than we expected. Lower borrowing costs by leading central banks, as well as a particularly fruitful Q3 earnings season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales results contributed much to the S&P 500 broad market indicator's climbing to record tops above 6,000, with the Nasdaq 100 index touching the area around 22,000 for the first time ever, compared to nearly 4,770 and 16,667, respectively, at the starting line of 2024. This means the annual performance is nearing 27% for the broad market barometer and 32% for the tech-heavy measure on average. Even if we may halve our potential 2025 percentage growth bets, the output from this moderated inertial scenario would give us 6,850 for the S&P 500 and 25,500 for the Nasdaq index, even though a bolder extrapolation is quite possible.

As an example, the road map made by Capital Economics before Christmas supposed the S&P 500 may finish 2025 at 7,000. This forecast came out despite the researchers' belief that the Federal Reserve's policy could be "a bit less accommodative” than they had previously projected, while mostly attributing the recent one-off slide in the S&P on the next day after the latest meeting of the U.S. financial regulator to a correlating sell-off in public bonds. It appears that the market crowd agrees with this statement, since the bulls have recovered so quickly. Monetary drivers are probably not decisive in this context. What could be more important is the extent of sensitivity of the American economy to trade battles with China and other rival economies under the upcoming Republican administration. Trump 2.0 is a "recipe for volatility" in 2025, says Piper Sandler, as its analysts are feeling the current situation may mirror the early 1980s when Ronald Reagan inherited great and sticky inflationary pressures accompanied by policy dysfunction and surging federal spending. The investment bank marked the risks of recent rate cuts "gone too far, too fast" while tariffs may push prices higher.

Goldman Sachs believes the Trump administration will implement targeted tariffs on imported automobiles and certain imports from China, as well as a 15% corporate tax rate for domestic manufacturers. They expect that the cumulative impact of these policy changes on corporate profits may roughly offset one another on net, so that Goldman projects the S&P 500 index to rise to 6,500 by the end of 2025. Morgan Stanley also stressed its base case for the S&P 500 price target at 6,500 on "earnings growth broadening".

The uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy under Trump is added to chances for a potentially negative impact. And so, the first 100 days of Trump's presidency will reveal a seriousness of his purpose to drive to much lower corporate taxes and a more effective government. However, we note that even the difficult progress of legislative initiatives during Trump’s first term on a stage of a divided Congress did not prevent the stock market from further rallying in 2017-2019, and now the Republicans have a clear majority in both the House and the Senate. As the first post-election phase of the so-called Trump trade has gone, its next phase when a revolutionary Republican agenda is going to be implemented step-by-step in practice will be a good stress test for markets. Yet, a protective mood may be united with residual enthusiasm to provide the bullish dynamics at least in the course of the first half of 2025 when about two-thirds of the way to our annual targets could be passed already. A corporate agenda of strong forecasts' transformation into reality can also be helpful on this stage. But the second half of the year may become more data dependent to create volatility in case of weaker-than-expected policy results.

We should not forget that the large tech corporations with American roots are not so closely related to revenues from the United States, selling a lion's share of their products and services to Asia and countries of the “Global South”. The top techs, led by NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, Broadcom etc., could play a quasi safe-haven role, especially as new China's stimulus hopes for a record-breaking 3 trillion Yuan (more than $400 billion) in special treasury bonds for 2025 are going to improve the global market sentiment, starting from giant beneficiaries of this policy. The economic growth in China is a very important factor for the country's domestic consumption, including products by transnational companies and local supply chains. Whether the growth pace in China will be sustainable or not will determine the prospect of achieving our target levels for the Wall Street indexes and its flagships in the second part of the year.

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Bitcoin Is Changing Glass Slippers for Shoes for Regular Partying

The world's key decentralized digital currency has long ceased to be a Cinderella who wanted to be able to dance at her first ball in top markets. Yet, the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and a circle of his close associates including the charismatic Elon Musk suddenly became shining representatives of some fairy godmother for Bitcoin. Crypto fans were so imbued with Trump's plans iterated and reiterated on the point of Bitcoin's extensive use as a full-fledged tool to form the American reserves in a glimmer of hope for paying off public debts by Bitcoins in the future, that BTCUSD price explosion above $100,000 was the shortest walk it ever had. Thus, Bitcoin openly crossed the line to gain access into high society forever, and no missing shoe in the course of a temporary retracement would turn its magic carriage into a simple pumpkin, with its "noble birth" being confirmed for the rest of the decade at least.

A favourable regulatory framework and increasing demand for the purposes of accumulating income, saving money and alternative cross-border payment against a whole heap of restrictions and losing credibility by fiat currencies led by the Greenback are compelling even heavy traditional investors to join reluctantly to the speculative fever club resulting in more or less aggressive buying any local dips in Bitcoin. Violent pitching of a Bitcoin boat took place on Thursday when it attempted to approach a $100,000 milestone once again. A broader altcoin market became very unstable at that moment as well. Well, it's just O.K. if the former Cinderella was certainly tired from dancing too long on the upper deck to take breath and went down for a while.

It may take some time to change the glass slippers for normal shoes to go on with a more regular party. However, we all saw how quick and sharp Bitcoin was when bouncing twice from the area around $92,500 to above $99,500 and nearly touching $100,000 again. This circus trick of extremely high activity first happened on December 20 and then was repeated on December 24, and so this sliding down and recovering back manoeuvres became just a matter of a few days. For me, this means that daring jumps above $105,000 could not be ruled out in January, of course, but the time factor is slowing down for the nearest weeks, thanks to the Federal Reserve's pause in its cutting rates cycle, which helps to strengthen market positioning in U.S. Dollars. More growth in both gold and crypto assets could be subdued, with a respite being used by market enthusiasts for a more solid bottoming to set roots for buying more Bitcoins for longer.

Technically, I believe that any decline to a lower range between $85,000 to $90,000, if this move ever happens, would immediately spark up investing interest by a much wider circle of both corporates and small traders. As a result a plunge to $80,000 or below is surely not my baseline scenario, and we may totally forget about quotes like $50,000 or $60,000 in 2025, like if this was before the founding of our current civilization. Another fundamentals behind much higher pricing of alternative means of payment, led by crypto, are implausible monetary road maps by major central banks, which could be called shaky at best, a long history of too weak financial discipline with printing too much money by leading countries, in contrast with a relatively pure financial planning, as blockchain technology is transparent limiting minting better than the governments with catastrophically raising for debt ceiling continuously. As my lowest estimate for a possible Bitcoin retracement is around $80,000, then personally my expectations for Bitcoin rally extensions are ranging from $120,000 to even $150,000 in 2025. It's just going to take a little time to get used to new realities at the beginning of the new year. Shortly thereafter, it may go forward again.

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