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11.08.2022
Perspective Peers of Ethereum: Avalanche

Avalanche is ranked by Coinmarketcap at the 12th position by market cap with $7.8 billion, which is 4% less than Ethereum’s market cap. AVAX prices dropped by 82% of its peak values, allowing investors to buy it at early 2021 prices. Avalanche’s infrastructure consists of three logically isolated networks, each of these with their own processing, validators, and own set of rules.

This platform is often compared to the existing internet web infrastructure with core connection protocols like HTTP, surrounded by a huge number of networks to their apps. Avalanche allow for the creation of public and private systems as a blockchain or DAG (Directed Acyclic Graph) and for the use of different virtual machines for apps, including EVM engine (Ethereum Virtual Machine) that allows Enthereum network programs to be developed.

Avalanche includes C-chain to create smart contracts that are processed on an advanced EVM engine, P-Chain that coordinates validators that process transactions and also allows for the creation and management of new subnetworks, and X-Chain which is a directed acyclic graph regulating issuance and trade of cryptoassets. DAG systems record new transactions on top of the old ones, allowing for processing speed to be increased and for capacity substantially. It is quite different to other blockchains, where transactions are compiled in blocks in order to be processed.

The advantage of Avalanche is that it provides anyone with the opportunity to create his or her own isolated blockchain with its own set of parameters, including access to apps and the programming language with which it will work. Every subnetwork can process around 4,500 transactions per second compared to 14 processed by the Ethereum network.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Tesla

Tesla is unique in terms of its share price. TSLA stocks rallied long before the company established the production of viable and steady electric vehicles (EV) and also thanks to the reputation of its leader Elon Musk. It is true that Tesla sometimes misses its mark and deadlines to launch new models and products but it seems that the crowd invests in Tesla not for its hit-and-run strategy but because of their belief in Musk’s ability to transform our everyday life in the long run.

Tesla stocks are trading 60% off their peak prices thanks to the market correction that has been squeezing the market since the end of 2021. Nevertheless, market participants are discussing some drivers that may hit the company’s business. For example, lower gasoline prices may hamper EV sales. It is true that Americans are now paying around $3.6 per gallon compared to $5 a few months ago. But this driver is largely exaggerated as gasoline prices is not the major reason for someone to buy an electric car. A move towards green energy and minimising carbon footprints is not a short term affair, but a sustainable long-term trend that is supported by governments, including the United States and China. Besides. oil producers forecast global demand will outweigh the supply side over the coming years while also betting on higher prices of fuel. So, no short-term movements of gasoline prices would affect EV buyers, as well as TSLA stock buyers.

The more serious issue is the declining prices for Tesla’s second-hand EVs. Tesla used cars are now 15% cheaper after a summer peak. If this downtrend is sustained pressure on sales of new model could mount. Tesla is planning to increase EV’s quarterly production to 500,000 by the end of 2022 and it is likely to increase production further after launching new production facilities in Berlin and Austin. But Tesla is not a mass market. So, Tesla fans are unlikely to pay much more to get a brand-new Tesla.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: Capital One

Capital One Financial corporation shares are trading at 50% off their peak prices. This has inspired the management of the company to deliver a massive buyback program bringing the buyback yield to 19.3%. Together with 2.7% dividend yield, this has made the company one of the most generous in the market. COF shares are in great demand among investors that are focused on value stocks, such as Oakmark Fund with more than $45 billion in assets under management.

The specialisation of Capital One is mostly credit cards, auto loans provided to substandard borrowers, or in other words, people with high credit risk profiles. This business is highly profitable, although it does bear high risks too. The company says it has a reliable risk assessment model in place to run the business. The lender generates not only higher margins compared to its peers, but overruns regulators’ requirements of capital adequacy with 13.6% vs required 6%. Considering these criteria, the company is in line with some of the largest banking institutions in the world, like JP Morgan with 14.1% and the Bank of America with 12.8%.

The company’s capital base, which is built on clients’ deposits, is enough to conduct high-margin lending. Such a model of cheap resources is not only profitable but it is also stable. Capital One has a margin of 10-15% on its tangible equity. The interest for the company’s services is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future considering the current economic environment. So, COF shares could be selected for long term investments with the upside potential of 30-40% once the market starts recovering.

28.12.2022
The Most Generous Corporates: eBay

eBay stocks are trading 50% off their peak prices despite significant progress in key businesses that increase the possibility of an increasing turnover of the auction platform. The dividend yield of the company is at 2.2%, while its buyback yield is at an impressive 24.4%. So, the overall reward for investors is at 26.6% in 2022, a record among public corporates. eBay has bought back shares for $5.3 billion during the last four quarters. So, outstanding shares have been reduced to 551 million from 685 million a year ago.

The company is actively developing collectable trading, including an acquisition of TCGplayer, a marketplace where enthusiasts exchange their collectables like Pokemon, Magic: The Gathering and others. The most important service that the platform provides is guaranteed authenticity of the collectables that ensures the buyers will not be subject to scams and also protect sellers from any malicious fraud. eBay has recently made this service available for jewellery above $500.

The company has published strong forward guidance for Q4 2022 with turnover at $17.8 billion, revenues at $2.46 billion, and EPS at $1.06. The EPS in the Q4 2021 was at $1.05. So, considering the tense situation in the retail market this year, any figures above record values of 2021 should be considered an achievement. eBay stocks will be able to recover rapidly to their peak prices once the market reverses to the upside, and that would mean 100% profit from the current values.

24.11.2022
Major Risks for Tech Giants: Apple

Apple stocks have had a very impressive performance amid a clearly bearish market while losing only 20% of their peak values. However, investors should be prepared for elevated turbulence in these stocks considering the situation in China.

China’s zero-tolerance policy to COVID-19 led to a massive exit of employees from Zhengzhou city plant amid fears over tightening curbs. Over 200,000 workers are rumoured to have left the plant. If this is true, the production of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max would be very complicated with no clear outlook on when it could be resumed. The delivery delay shown on Apple’s website has already hit six weeks. Americans who ordered the brand new IPhone for Thanksgiving Day will only receive it for Christmas now. Meanwhile the last two months of the year are very valuable for any mass-market company in terms of holiday sales.

 

Apple is planning to move iPhone production to India. But that would require years. The company has already invested $75 billion in the Chinese market and now this investment may be at risk as the ruling Communist party in China may put a local ban on the sale of Apple products. China is the third largest market for Apple with the United States at the first place with $153 billion and Europe at the second with $95 billion. Wall Street is expecting Apple’s earning to go up by five percent over the next three years. So, any troubles with production in China may alter these forecasts. 

B
GBPUSD is Likely to Rise

Most traders may believe that the Pound is doomed and will never recover. This belief stems from the rise of the US Dollar, loose monetary signals from the Bank of England (BoE), and the expected easing of inflation in April. Although labour market data indicates to some improvement in the conditions of the UK economy, I expect the Pound to surge to 1.28. We can see it on the weekly chart, where the 200 period EMA is located, which is the strongest resistance. In terms of timing, I expect the start of an upward movement by May 24, when inflation data for the UK will be released. But the market is very speculative, even though volatility is falling, it is better to look for the 1.25 level for GBPUSD to open long trades. In the alternative scenario, the Pound may go down to 1.2280 from the current level of 1.2450.

264
Undervalued Value Stocks: Royal Caribbean Cruises

Cruise liners operators are one of the market segments that greatly suffered during the pandemic. But the situation has improved, as the World Health Organisation (WHO) recently declared that the pandemic is over. So, Royal Caribbean could now recovery. RCL stocks dropped to $20 in 2020 and have recovered to $75 since then, but prices are still lower than $135 that were recorded in 2019. The Q1 2023 made losses to the company but they are much less than before. RCL revenues were recorded at $2.9 billion compared to $2.5 billion in Q1 2019, while EPS was negative at -$0.23, beating analysts’ expectations of -$0.69.

Such developments are pointing to the fact that the company is on its way to a recovery much faster than expected. The management expects EPS at $4.60 in 2023 and at $10 by the end of 2024, while analysts’ consensus is at $8.4. This target could be upgraded when the company delivers its new earnings report.

Royal Caribbean has reported bookings during Q1 2023 at $5.3 billion compared to $4.2 billion at the end of 2022. The management expects a record operational profit in 2023 that will allow the company to cover most of the losses caused by the pandemic.

187
Undervalued Value Stocks: Suncor Energy

Suncor Energy is a Canadian energy company that specialises in production of synthetic crude from oil sands. Its stocks are trading around the same level as a decade ago. The reason for this is a lack of investors’ satisfaction as the firm delivers low incomes. Operational income was down by 29% as EPS tumbled to $1.36, and the Free Cash Flow was down by 21% to $2.26 per share.

It is worth remembering that energy companies are cyclical, and the sector is now recovering. Most of the companies from the sector have rewarded their shareholders, including Suncor. It spent $874 million for buy back of its shares and $690 million on dividends during the last quarter.

The management is planning to spent $5.8 billion on Capex and acquisition of TotalEnergies SE Canadian-based assets. This acquisition is very promising as Suncor will increase its oil sands reserves by 10% immediately after the deal is closed. This deal is largely financed by borrowed funds, which is the only risk factor. However, the company is planning to pay off $9 billion of its $15.7 billion debts by the end of 2024. It is also planning to spend half of its FCF on buy backs, and increase this buy backs to 75% of FCF in 2025.

Investors that are prepared to act against the market by adding SU stocks to their portfolios with a huge discount could be largely rewarded when the market sentiment changes.

256
Undervalued Value Stocks: Dropbox

Dropbox is a file hosting service company. Its stocks lost 33% for their peak prices. Investors were lacking excitement over this stock during the recent mini-rally as the company presented quite moderate revenue growth in Q1 2023 as the firm has become a value company. Even the AI-driven segment is unlikely to dramatically boost the company’s revenues . Key drivers for the stock could be rather found in the stable continuous income and higher margins. The company has decided to lay off 16% of its staff so this may help to improve margins. It is also a signal from the management that it will continue to raise margins and the company’s effectiveness.

The company’s management is expecting to increase Free Cash Flow (FCF) to $1 billion in 2024. Why is this so important? The company, unlike many other tech firms, has already found its source of stable income and is trying to increase it. Investors themselves are not prone to overpay for risky growth stocks at the moment, and are seeking out value stocks that could bring them stable income. Dropbox is expecting revenues at $2.470-2.485 billion and FCF at $820-840 million in 2023 with an operational margin at 33-34%.

Management has spent $570 million during Q1 2023 to buy back 8% of the company’s stocks. If it succeeds to receive FCF as planned, its stocks may easily recover losses and continue to gain momentum.

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